MLB Picks

Eventually, replacing a six-time Silver Slugger like Soto with Jared Young, Carson Benge or Brett Baty will catch up with the Mets, especially with Francisco Lindor (2 extra base hits in 48 AB) slumping. 

New York has allowed the fourth-fewest runs in MLB and start Freddy Peralta against Arizona, which is averaging just 3.5 runs a game.

Cubs starter Javier Assad has pitched to a solid 3.43 ERA across 331 innings in his MLB career. He takes on the Rays who are 29th in the majors in barrel rate and 25th in hard-hit rate. The Cubs have also struggled at the plate, ranking 25th in OPS (.628) with that number dropping to .557 over their last three games. The Rays are giving the pill to Drew Rasmussen, who has logged a sparkling 2.68 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in 83 career starts with Tampa Bay. Another reason to like the NRFI bet is the stiff 23 mph breeze blowing towards the infield at Tropicana Field.

Drew Rasmussen’s increased cutter usage is a key reason for his strong start. He’s picked up a whiff rate of 29.4% with the pitch, utilizing it 7% more than last season. Tuesday he faces a Chicago Cubs lineup whose .340 xwOBAcon and .213 xBA are fourth-worst in the bigs. Yandy Diaz is setting the table for the Rays with a .395 xwOBA and a .489 OBP. As a team, they rank fifth in xBA and wOBA, and sixth in slugging.

The Miami Marlins are listed as -122 favorites at home against the Cincinnati Reds, and that number stands out—I make them closer to -155 in this spot. Two key matchup edges drive this play. First, Austin Slater at the top of the lineup is a great fit here. As a right-handed bat, he’s long been effective against left-handed pitching, particularly when it comes to attacking high fastballs—Andrew Abbott’s primary pitch. That gives Miami an immediate advantage at the top of the order. The second is the Sandy Alcantara vs. Elly De La Cruz matchup. De La Cruz brings a high-variance profile with significant strikeout risk, and Alcantara’s mix of a high-velocity sinker and changeup is well-suited to exploit that. He has the tools to consistently disrupt De La Cruz’s timing and limit his impact. When you combine those matchup advantages, this price feels too short for Miami.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 21° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sandy Alcantara.. Eugenio Suarez has been hot recently, putting up a a 20% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) over the past 14 days.

The Paul Skenes tax is alive and well on this Tuesday morning, and we’re fading the Pirates because of it. The Padres are trading as +130 underdogs on the moneyline with Nick Pivetta on the mound, and that number is far too long—I make it closer to +105 in this spot. Skenes is a power pitcher with elite velocity, which is a problem for most lineups, but San Diego is built to handle it. The top of their order looks to ambush fastballs, and velocity doesn’t faze hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. This isn’t an ideal matchup for Skenes given the Padres’ offensive profile. On the other side, Pivetta’s high-spin fastball, which he locates at the top of the zone, can create real issues for Pittsburgh’s lineup—particularly for hitters like Brandon Lowe and Oneil Cruz in the middle of the order. When you factor in both matchups, this price feels inflated toward Pittsburgh, making San Diego the value side.

San Diego proved the weather excuse hollow by dropping five runs at PNC Park last night, and Pittsburgh's lineup isn't getting blanked twice. One crooked inning from either side cashes this ticket at no juice, and the number is below the key number seven, which makes this a good bet. 

 

Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet pitched to a sparkling 2.59 ERA last year. He's coming off an ugly start but that was against Houston who crush lefties and have a history of mashing against him. The 2025 AL Cy Young runner-up should bounce back with a better performance at home. Jacob Misiorowski and a strong Milwaukee bullpen will also shut down a Boston lineup that averages just 3.60 runs per game with an OPS of .682. Misiorowski has allowed three runs in 11 frames this season with an impressive .169 xBA. He's in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate (40%) and whiff rate (42.2%), while Boston ranks 26th in strikeout rate (27.8%) and dead-last in whiff rate (33.3%).

The 2-8 Red Sox are favored because ace Garrett Crochet is on the mound but the difference in the starters isn't as big as you might think. Brewers righty Jacob Misiorowski has allowed just three runs with 18 strikeouts through 11 innings. The analytics indicate those numbers are sustainable with the hard-throwing 24-year-old allowing an xBA of .167. He's in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate (40%) and whiff rate (42.2%), while Boston ranks 26th in strikeout rate (27.8%) and last in whiff rate (33.3%). On offense, Milwaukee has a big edge with its lineup third in the majors in OPS (.813) and second in runs per game (6.80). With the Brewers boasting an 8-2 record, they have value as road dogs.

There’s screaming statistical correction coming for St. Louis lefty Matthew Liberatore, and the Washington lineup is set to serve it. Liberatore’s 1.64 ERA through two starts is saddled with a 5.28 xFIP and both his .216 BABIP and 100.0% strand rate are going to take hits tonight. And, while it might be a small sample, I’m still bullish about the Nationals pacing the majors in on-base percentage and ranking third in wOBA across 128 plate appearances against southpaws.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. In MLB, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 9th-shallowest.. Alec Burleson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Cavalli today.. Compared to last season, Alec Burleson has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 44.4% to 55.6% this season.

The Yankees have the best lineup in the AL and have scored in the first inning in 44.4% of their games. They face Athletics starter Aaron Civale who pitched to a 4.85 ERA in 102 innings last season. Civale has an ugly 6.35 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP in seven career starts against the Yankees. The A's also have a talented lineup anchored by Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers,. The A's are seventh in the majors in exit velocity and the 20 mph wind blowing towards the outfield today will help both offenses.

All seven of New York's wins this season have come by two runs or more. Cam Schlittler has been lights out to open the season, surrendering zero earned runs while allowing just three total baserunners and striking out 15 across two road starts. Behind him is a rested bullpen that ranks first in FIP, while the offense has produced five or more runs in five straight games. New York has also handled Aaron Civale well, putting up a 1.095 OPS over 59 combined at-bats. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto relies on his fastball/splitter combination. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. owns the highest OPS against the splitter in the Jays lineup and owns a career 1.000 OPS against him. 

With injuries and ineffectiveness blasting Toronto's rotation, the Blue Jays will need an extended outing from Kevin Gausman, who has cleared 17.5 outs in both starts so far this season.

Tarik Skubal has picked up right where he left off last season, allowing just one earned run through his first two starts (13 innings) this year.

Skubal will dominate again vs. the Twins, who are averaging a meager 1.67 runs in the first five innings and batting just .169 vs. southpaws.

It is likely that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Quinn Wolcott) calling pitches in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 10th-worst venue in the league for strikeouts.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. With 8 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Tarik Skubal will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.. Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Tarik Skubal in today's matchup.

The Mariners are ice-cold at the plate. That said, this is virtually the same lineup that mashed on the road last year and proven sluggers like Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, and Julio Rodriguez will eventually break out. They face Rangers righty Nathan Eovaldi who has surrendered 16 hits and 11 runs through 8 2/3 frames. Meanwhile, M's starter George Kirby struggles away from the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. He had a 5.16 ERA with an OBA of .279 on the road last year and the Rangers are second in the majors in hard-hit rate and exit velocity.

Cole Young has made an immediate impact in his second season in the majors, collecting at least one hit in eight of 10 appearances.

Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi has dealt with plenty of injuries over the past year and doesn't look up to speed just yet. He carries a bloated 11.42 ERA through two starts while allowing 6+ hits in both outings.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #1 stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of the day.. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Isaac Paredes will have an advantage in today's matchup.

The #1 stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of the day.. Brice Matthews will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Freeland in today's matchup.. Brice Matthews has hit one of the hardest balls in the league in the last week — 111.1-mph — which is a good measure of recent form and raw power.

Let’s keep attacking Yusei Kikuchi in a solid hitting environment with Ozzie Albies at +520. He’s already part of a four-player round robin I have, but his solo HR prop at +480 or better still carries +EV based on projections. Albies is expected to hit in the three-hole against a lefty, a split where he’s historically been stronger than vs. right-handers. Kikuchi’s profile is vulnerable to hard-hit fly balls, and Albies has already had success in the matchup, going 3-for-6 with a home run. There’s also upside beyond the starter, as the Los Angeles Angels bullpen has outperformed its underlying numbers, carrying a 4.51 xFIP that ranks near the bottom of the league despite a strong ERA. This sets up as a spot where the Atlanta Braves could generate multiple home runs.

Baldwin has already failed me this year, but of course, he got hot after I bet on him with back-to-back games going deep. He is currently tied for the league lead with five homers. A price north of +500 in Anaheim, with decent hitting conditions, is putting him back in my trust tree. He is a Top-10 hitter in baseball right now who isn't striking out. There are three other Braves who have taken Yusei Kikuchi deep over their careers in Ronald Acuna (+360), Matt Olson (+390), and Ozzie Albies (+520), so there is plenty of info for Baldwin, who handles lefties just as well as righties. This might be a great spot for a two-man Atlanta round robin homer card with the two shortest odds making better than 20/1 odds. That's six combinations at doubles. At 0.15 units per bet, that would be a decent winner at less than a unit risk. 

These are two quality starting pitchers, facing two lineups that have had their fair share of troubles — Philadelphia against lefties and San Francisco in general. The Giants have plated four or fewer runs in nine of their 11 games. 

Although the surface-level statistics may not show it, these are two quality bullpens. The Phillies have the best SIERA in relief (2.69), but a 4.17 ERA, and the Giants have a quality 3.81 SIERA but a grotesque 4.93 ERA.

Both of those bullpen ERAs are due for positive regression, creating value in the Under in the meantime.

Philadelphia has been anemic against left-handed pitching, posting a measly 59 wRC+ and .165 AVG in 112 at-bats. 

Robbie Ray performed admirably at Oracle Park last year (3.50 FIP) and has had plenty of juice in his first two starts (108 Stuff+), so he forecasts for a strong outing. 

Facing Christopher Sanchez is never fun, but he’s down one mph on his fastball and has been hittable (10th percentile average exit velocity, 14th percentile hard-hit rate). For as bad as San Francisco has been against RHP, the lineup is close to league-average against southpaws.