All Picks
NFL
NCAAF
MLB
NBA
NCAAB
NHL
CFL
WNBA
Golf
World Cup
What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 4, 2026.
New
Computer Picks powered by
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.09 |
-153 
|
o9.5 -110 
|
-1.5 +102 
|
|
5.17 |
+143 
|
u10.5 -160
|
+1.5 -115 
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Reds are 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+203)
o0.5+203
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.69 |
+103
|
o6.5 -115
|
+2.5 -600
|
|
3.89 |
-110
|
u7.0 -115
|
-2.5 +350
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a road underdog.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Phillies are 6-0 in Sanchezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+257)
o0.5+257
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.27 |
+170
|
o8.5 -110 
|
+3.5 -324
|
|
5.59 |
-193
|
u8.5 +100
|
-1.5 +114
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Angels last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts on grass.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Jones' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Esmerlyn Valdez o0.5 Total RBIs (+221)
o0.5+221
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.78 |
-115
|
o8.0 -114
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
4.26 |
+105
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -160
|
Boston
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 on grass.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Jackson Holliday o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
o1.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.59 |
-152 
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +112
|
|
3.57 |
+149
|
u9.5 -204
|
+1.5 -125
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Marlins are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Kyle Stowers u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
u1.5-180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.23 |
+166
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -132
|
|
5.43 |
-180
|
u8.0 -125
|
-1.5 +118
|
San Francisco
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Giants last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-1 in McLeans last 6 starts vs. National League West.
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Mets last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.20 |
+120
|
o7.5 -125 
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.94 |
-135
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +160
|
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Griffins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.27 |
+102
|
o8.5 -145
|
+3.5 -650
|
|
5.61 |
-115
|
u9.5 -135
|
-1.5 +165
|
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0-1 in Matthews' last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Twins are 6-0 in Matthews' last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts on grass.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 8-0 in Feddes last 8 starts.
Top Projection
Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total RBIs (+191)
o0.5+191
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.84 |
-104
|
o8.0 -125
|
+3.5 -1000
|
|
4.58 |
-105
|
u8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 on grass.
- Rays are 7-0 in Martinezs last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 10-1 in Rangers last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 games following a win.
Top Projection
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.49 |
+116
|
o8.5 -120
|
+3.5 -650
|
|
4.49 |
-125
|
u9.0 -120
|
-3.5 +375
|
Arizona
- Over is 4-0-2 in Kellys last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Kellys last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kellys last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 1-0-3 in Astros last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.17 |
+105
|
o9.5 -120
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.01 |
-115
|
u13.5 -500
|
-1.5 +140
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Royals are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Royals are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.53 |
-120
|
o11.0 -107
|
+1.5 -300
|
|
5.73 |
+115
|
u11.5 -115
|
-1.5 +210
|
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games following a loss.
Colorado
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 home games.
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
o1.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.58 |
-115
|
o4.5 -500
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
3.36 |
+105
|
u7.5 -118
|
+1.5 -170
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
San Diego
- Under is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 vs. American League East.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Trent Grisham o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
o0.5+265
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.48 |
+253
|
o8.0 -120
|
+2.0 -125
|
|
4.92 |
-290
|
u8.5 -115
|
-2.0 -104
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in Snells last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in Snells last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Top Projection
Dylan Crews o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.22 |
+200
|
o7.0 -120
|
+3.5 -350
|
|
4.92 |
-210
|
u7.5 -122
|
-3.5 +260
|
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Gilberts last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total RBIs (+158)
o0.5+158
MIL
@
CIN
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jake Bauers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+335)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Milwaukee’s leader in barrel rate against Lowder’s pitch mix this season is…Jake Bauers!
The veteran lefty profiles amazingly well, generating barrels at nearly a 15% clip while posting a healthy .231 ISO to boot.
Bauers also owns a magnificent track record when facing Rhett Lowder, going 5-for-8 with a pair of homers.
Total
o9.5 (-107)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Rhett Lowder’s ERA sits at 8.13 when isolating seven matchups against teams in the Top-10 in OBP and xwOBA vs. righties.
That includes two starts against the Milwaukee Brewers, in which Lowder combined to allow nine runs in just over 10 innings of work.
Drohan owns a 4.70 xERA the past month and the Cincinnati Reds do possess real power.
Play to 53%.
ATL
@
PHI
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Kyle Schwarber is hitting a respectable .263 against Chris Sale. More importantly, he has generated real power with a pair of home runs and a triple.
Sale attacks left-handed hitters with sliders, sinkers, and four-seams. Schwarber hasn’t taken a lefty yard on the slider this season but owns ISOs of .255 and .404 against sinkers and four-seamers.
Total
u6.5 (+109)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Chris Sale posted a 2.60 xERA the past month while allowing just three barrels in 27 innings of work. It’s almost impossible to square him up.
Cristopher Sanchez is sporting a 2.51 FIP in Philadelphia, and conceded two or less in 14 of 16 starts – including a zero against the Braves.
Play to 52%.
LAA
@
PIT
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total Home Runs (+410)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Lowe has hit 49 of his 60 homers with a massive .263 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past two years, and Angels starter Ryan Johnson has allowed a healthy .193 mark to left-handed hitters. Johnson checks in with a confidence-shattering 5.53 xERA, league-high 5.54 xFIP, too.
Total
o8.5 (+100)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Angels starter Ryan Johnson sports a confidence-shattering 5.53 xERA, league-high 5.54 xFIP and pedestrian 16.5 strikeout percentage, so with the Pirates ranking first in the majors in wOBA against righties and overall wOBAcon, I'm aniticipating Pittsburgh having a big night at the dish. The Angels will only need to chip in to send this total Over the number, and Pirates righy Jared Jones have allowed three or more runs in four of his past six starts.
BOS
@
BAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Jarren Duran o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Jarren Duran will have an advantage today.. Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
Total Bases
Wilyer Abreu o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.. Among all major league parks, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's RF dimensions are the shallowest.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage over Shane Baz today.
CHC
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Michael Busch o0.5 Total Home Runs (+575)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
There’s been a considerable dip in Michael Busch’s ISO against righties this season. He posted a rock-solid .245 mark across the past two seasons but is all the way down to a .141 ISO in 2026. So, with Miami righty Janson Junk allowing a healthy 16.7 blast-contact percentage at home, this is a long number for Busch to cash in on statistical correction and leave the yard tonight.
Total
u8.5 (-126)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Miami Marlins rank 27th in xwOBA and 25th in ISO over the past 30 days, while also checking in 20th in wOBA against lefties for the season. On top of that, Miami has also played to the Under in 26 of their last 40 home games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI). This is also a potential letdown spot for Chicago following the split of a key, divisional series against the Milwaukee Brewers, in which the Cubs scattered just 11 runs across the final three games.
SF
@
NYM
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+205)
Projection 1.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 91st percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Francisco Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over Matt Wilkinson in today's matchup... and moreover, Wilkinson has a large platoon split.. Francisco Alvarez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Christopher Morel u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Christopher Morel is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citi Field as the 4th-worst stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters.. Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which often leads to worse offense.
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Jo Adell is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The #2 park in MLB for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Progressive Field.. Given Andrew Sears's large platoon split, Jo Adell will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.
Total Bases
Kevin McGonigle o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin McGonigle in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Kevin McGonigle is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Kevin McGonigle has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
MIN
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:40 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Zebby Matthews u2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+104)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Total Bases
Munetaka Murakami o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 2.01
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Munetaka Murakami projects as the 2nd-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Munetaka Murakami is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #6 ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest fences among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°.
TB
@
TEX
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Wyatt Langford o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Wyatt Langford will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total RBIs
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Jonathan Aranda will have the handedness advantage against Trevor Williams in today's game... and moreover, Williams has a large platoon split.
AZ
@
HOU
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Tim Tawa o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
Projection 0.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Total RBIs
Christian Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Christian Walker ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field fences among all stadiums.. Christian Walker will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.
TOR
@
KC
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jac Caglianone o0.5 Total Home Runs (+344)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone both stand out in a strong matchup for the Royals, making it nearly impossible to choose just one. Kansas City’s young power hitters boast one of the highest matchup ratings on the slate while covering nearly 100% of Jameson Taillon’s pitch mix. Caglianone has also made the most of his elite Batters-Box ratings, leaving the yard 22% of the time across 30 such ratings this season. Over his last 10 games, the big fella has posted a .512 SLG and .186 ISO, while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate.
Total Home Runs
Carter Jensen o0.5 Total Home Runs (+388)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Carter Jensen finds himself in an appealing spot against Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Jameson Taillon, who owns the worst rating among pitchers in Batters-Box’s current-season dataset. Jensen also boasts the third-highest matchup rating, trailing only Yordan Alvarez and teammate Jac Caglianone. The Royals slugger has been crushing the ball over his last 10 games, posting a .914 SLG, .543 ISO, 63% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate. Taillon has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a 14.3% barrel rate and 71.4% elevation rate over his last 60 lefties. That combination gives Jensen plenty of home run upside.
STL
@
COL
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total Home Runs (+307)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Jordan Walker is an appealing power-hitting option at Coors Field, especially with his price sitting around 24%. The St. Louis Cardinals slugger has been making plenty of hard contact against right-handed pitching, posting a .483 SLG and .207 ISO over his last 30 at-bats. He has also recorded a 61.5% hard-hit rate and 11.5% barrel rate over his last 10 games, while keeping his ground-ball rate at just 30%. Walker draws Colorado right-hander Ryan Feltner, who has allowed a barrel rate over 15%, 4.05 HR/9 and a .720 SLG in his last three home starts.
Total Bases
Nolan Gorman o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #1 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 88°.. Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Feltner in today's game.
NYY
@
SD
Fri, Sep 4 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Trent Grisham o0.5 Total Home Runs (+510)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Trent Grisham hasn't shown his power stroke in a handful of weeks, but he's in a good spot against Buehler to launch one tonight. Not only does he have two career homers against him, but Buehler has been missing his spots recently, allowing three bombs over his last two starts. Grisham will look to sit on Buehler's changeup, a pitch he's given up five homers on this year. Let's fire him up with confidence.
Total
u7.5 (-121)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
For as good as Fried has been, Buehler actually has a good history against the Yankees, striking them out at a 30% clip while limiting them to a .229 xBA. I just don't see him outdueling Fried in this one, especially since the Padres own just a .691 OPS against lefties. The trends are on our side in this one, too, as both teams are a top-six Under team in baseball, hitting at a 54% clip or better this season.
WAS
@
LAD
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+494)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
With just a single home run across his past 26 games, Hernandez is eyeing statistical correction at the dish and has the handedness advantage against Washington starter Jackson Kent this evening. Hernandez’s .184 ISO against lefties is also well below the high-end .255 mark he posted across the past three years. Kent has surrendered a healthy .215 ISO to right-handed hitters, too.
Total
u8.5 (-115)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Dodgers veteran Blake Snell has allowed just three runs across his past four starts with a sterling 1.82 xERA and dominant 34.1 strikeout percentage, so I’m not anticipating the Nationals mounting enough offense to help send this total Over the number. Washington has dipped to 18th in wOBA on the road in the second half, after all.
ATH
@
SEA
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total Home Runs (+375)
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst
Cal Raleigh leads all of baseball with a 32.1% barrel rate against right-handed pitching during the last 30 days (min. 20 plate appearances). Raleigh didn’t catch a barrel yesterday, but both of his balls in play were 95+ mph off the bat. Morris has allowed a 37.2% fly-ball rate against left-handed hitters this season. There is a good chance we see Raleigh leave the yard this evening.
Total
u7.5 (-126)
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst
Logan Gilbert owns a 4.54 FIP at T-Mobile Park in 2026, but much of his struggles have been due to an inability to keep the ball in the yard. Cooler temperatures in Seattle this evening should help mitigate that issue. The Athletics offense is a good matchup for Gilbert, too, ranking only 14th in ISO and 19th in home runs against right-handed pitching since the beginning of August. If the bullpens for the Athletics and Mariners can avoid a late-inning meltdown, runs are likely to be at a premium.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
Latest headlines Checkout latest headlinesRead more
-
Visit all available MLB odds View now MLB odds
-
MLB Scores + Matchups View now MLB Scores + Matchups
Latest headlines Checkout latest headlinesRead more
How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
