Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 4, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
DET
@
TEX
Sat, Jul 4 • 4:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-121)
TEX (-103)
The Texas Rangers are averaging 5.6 runs per game during their current 7-1 hot streak, while feasting on sliders this season.
Detroit Tigers starter Jack Flaherty ranks in the 14th percentile in pitching run value, due in part to his subpar slider that he throws 25% of the time.
TOR
@
SEA
Sat, Jul 4 • 4:10 PM ET
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+575)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has cracked three home runs in 20 at-bats off Logan Gilbert, and I expect him to go yard against Gilbert today. Vladdy completely dominates this head-to-head matchup, boasting a massive 1.309 OPS and seven hits. Gilbert is highly vulnerable following a shaky four-earned-run shellacking against Cleveland, making him prime target practice for Guerrero’s elite hard-hit ability to clear the fences.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has three bombs in 20 at-bats against Logan Gilbert, and I expect him to ruthlessly hammer the vulnerable Gilbert. Because both bullpens currently sport highly unstable metrics, constant late-inning traffic ensures the game flies over 7.5 total runs while Toronto secures a moneyline victory.
BAL
@
CIN
Sat, Jul 4 • 7:10 PM ET
TB
@
HOU
Sat, Jul 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total Home Runs (+367)
Junior Caminero has gone deep in five of his last six games, backed by a .600 ISO and 55.5% hard hit rate. He faces Hunter Brown tonight, who's allowed a home run in each of his last two starts with a 42.9% hard hit rate against.
YRFI/NRFI (No: -131)
Drew Rasmussen and Hunter Brown have consistently silenced opponents early, combining dominant first-inning form with strong underlying metrics. Houston owns just a 78 wRC+ over the last two weeks, while Tampa has been scoreless in the first in consecutive games, making another quiet opening frame likely.
CHW
@
CLE
Sat, Jul 4 • 7:10 PM ET
o7.5 (-112)
Sean Burke (5-4, 3.69 ERA) has shaky underlying metrics beyond his fastball. Cleveland's patient lineup drew 14 walks in the first two games, and Brayan Rocchio hits fastballs well. Chicago's offense has improved recently, averaging 5.4 runs over the past two weeks.
CLE (-137)
Cleveland has won three straight and five of seven, while Chicago has lost three straight. Parker Messick (7-5, 2.85 ERA) starts for the Guardians, whose offense is heating up. Cleveland's top-10 bullpen also got stronger with the promotion of Franco Aleman.
NYM
@
ATL
Sat, Jul 4 • 8:08 PM ET
u8.0 (-105)
Chris Sale has only allowed multiple runs only once over eights starts against teams 15th or worse in ISO vs. lefties. The Atlanta Braves possess power but they have hit just .225 against left-handed pitching since June 1. They’re not generating enough traffic to score in bulk. I see value on the Under and would play it to -115.
ATL (-170)
Chris Sale has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one start since April 6 and ranks in the 98th percentile in Pitcher Run Value. The Atlanta Braves will provide him support facing Sean Manaea, who sits in the 23rd percentile in Pitcher Run Value. Back the Braves to -185.
STL
@
CHC
Sat, Jul 4 • 8:08 PM ET
u8.0 (-110)
The Chicago Cubs don’t hit for average, sitting tied with the Angels for 23rd against right-handed pitching this season.
The St. Louis Cardinals don’t feature a ton of power against lefties – they’re 21st in ISO – and colder, wet conditions will only make it tougher on them against Shota Imanaga.
I expect a 4-3 type of game. Play the Under to -120.
CHC (-155)
Kyle Leahy has posted a 5.35 ERA and recorded an xERA of 5.50 or worse in six of his seven starts on the road.
The Chicago Cubs rank 10th in OPS and eighth in ISO against right-handed pitching over the last month. They’re certainly capable of doing damage against Leahy.
Back them to rebound Saturday. Play to -170.
PHI
@
KC
Sat, Jul 4 • 8:10 PM ET
SF
@
COL
Sat, Jul 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Rafael Devers is scorching hot, with four homers in his last six games and a 62.5% hard hit rate. He gets a great matchup tonight against Colorado's Tomoyuki Sugano, who's allowed 2.17 HR/9 over the past month. Robbie Ray takes the mound for San Francisco, riding a stellar 3.20 FIP with three straight scoreless starts
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+239)
Rafael Devers has four homers in his last six games, with a .600 ISO, 62.5% hard hit rate, and 25% barrel rate. He faces Tomoyuki Sugano, who's allowed 2.14 HR/9 over his last four starts with a 7.29 ERA, at Coors Field, where the ball carries well.
BOS
@
LAA
Sat, Jul 4 • 9:38 PM ET
Sonny Gray has been Boston's ace, boasting a 9-1 record and 2.48 xERA over his last five starts, cashing the Under in earned runs allowed in three of four. He faces a cold Angels lineup hitting just .214 with a 51 wRC+ this week, and he's racked up 20 strikeouts in his last two outings. The Red Sox face Sam Aldegheri, who has allowed 12 earned across his last three appearances.
MIL
@
AZ
Sat, Jul 4 • 9:40 PM ET
William Contreras o0.5 Runs (-105)
William Contreras has feasted on right-handed pitching this season, sporting a .294 average and .349 on base percentage.
Isolating right-handed starting pitchers who rank in the 30th percentile or worse in ERA, Contreras has scored in 11 of 15 games this season – tallying 13 in total.
Play to -130.
MIA
@
ATH
Sat, Jul 4 • 9:40 PM ET
SD
@
LAD
Sat, Jul 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Griffin Canning struggles mightily against left-handed hitters (.312/.398/.578), and L.A. has nine hitters with a wRC+ over 115 against right-handed pitchers. He puts the Padres at a massive starting pitching disadvantage against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who should dominate with his splitter against a San Diego Padres lineup that struggles against the offering, posting the fourth-lowest runs above average (-7.1).
PIT
@
WAS
Sun, Jul 5 • 1:00 PM ET
PIT (-120)
MIL
@
STL
Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
AZ
@
STL
Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
o2.5 Team Total (-115)
The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.
Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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