MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 5th-best hitter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his batting average ability.. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which often leads to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Kyle Harrison throws from, Bobby Witt Jr. will have an edge in today's matchup.

When it comes to his home run ability, Salvador Perez ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Salvador Perez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which often leads to better offense.. Salvador Perez will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Harrison in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as Major League Baseball's 10th-best home run batter.. Byron Buxton is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 5th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 5th-best of the day for batters.. Byron Buxton has big-time HR ability (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (29.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Nick Martinez has a pitch-to-contact profile (19th percentile K%) — great news for Buxton.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kody Clemens in the 91st percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Kody Clemens is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 5th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 5th-best of the day for batters.

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The Toronto Blue Jays slugger hits the ball as hard as anyone in the league. He ranked in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate last season and is starting to show that same level of pop in his bat. 

Guerrero finally hit his first home run of the season yesterday, and nearly had another with a long moon shot that was caught at the wall.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 17th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Will Benson is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game.. When starting against a right-handed starter since the start of last season, Will Benson has been pulled from the game early 25% of the time.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Globe Life Field as the worst ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average.. Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

Globe Life Field ranks as the #29 field in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 6th-deepest CF fences among all stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 5th-driest conditions on the slate at 33%.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 13.8-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for hurlers.. Batting from the same side that Chase Burns throws from, Wyatt Langford will not have the upper hand in today's game.

 In just 20 plate appearances vs. RHP this season, Kyle Schwarber has already crushed three bombs, driven in five runs, and drawn five walks.

He’s expected to have a strong day—so much so that three H/R/R carries -145 juice. That’s why I love getting his RBI prop at -125, especially in the thin air at Coors Field.

Against RHP so far this season, Schwarber is rocking a whopping .714 ISO  and a 288 wRC+. His counterpart on Sunday, Tomoyuki Sugano, often pitches to contact and allowed 1.93 HR/9 last season.

While he looked decent in his opening start, he couldn’t get through five innings and still coughed up a dinger. He also posted an ERA that was half of his xERA and xFIP metrics.

This matchup sets up very well for Schwarber to drive in a run for the fifth straight game. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. Coors Field profiles as the #1 field in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to more offense.. Hunter Goodman has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (29.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker is a pitch-to-contact type (17th percentile K%) — great news for Goodman.

Yes, it’s a repeat from yesterday. Except it’s at even better odds, and I’m not turning that down.

Not against a pitcher in Jacob Lopez who ranked in the Bottom 5th percentile last season in chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate. In his first start this season, he walked five batters in four innings which set up Atlanta’s hitters with run-scoring opportunities.

He’s now facing a Houston team that has already drawn 50 walks this season. Alvarez drew four of them himself yesterday—and still managed to drive in a run in his only registered at-bat.

Alvarez is fourth in the bigs with a .462 ISO in the early season. Split against LHP, that number jumpts to .571 in 18 plate appearances. 

Plus-odds for an RBI from the guy sitting second in wRC+ and leading the league with a .604 xwOBA is a gift, and one I’ll happily accept. 

2025 was a year to forget for Yordan Alvarez, who hit just six dingers in 48 games due to a fracture in his hand. The Houston Astros slugger is finally back to full health, and he’s already gone yard three times in nine games.

Alvarez has been smashing the baseball with six extra-base hits, a .423 batting average, and an .885 slugging percentage.

Webb’s strong performance at home, combined with a likely Soto-less Mets lineup, means New York likely won’t have another offensive outburst after plating 19 runs in the last two games. 

San Francisco has been the worst team in the league against RHP (44 wRC+) and have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their nine contests this season. 

Each of the first three games of this series cashed the Over 7.5, but here’s betting on an Under in the finale. The Mets have hit the Under in 28 of their last 45 away games, and Oracle’s Park is a pitcher’s best friend. 

Logan Webb is a beast at Oracle Park, sporting a career 2.92 ERA and 2.71 FIP across a massive sample size of 552 ⅓ IP.

The New York Mets have the better lineup, but the gap closes with Juan Soto likely out of the lineup after receiving an MRI on Saturday. 

It’s been a slow start offensively for the San Francisco Giants, but things will pick up sooner or later, as 1–7 in the lineup is certainly league-caliber. Kodai Senga has never figured out his walk problem (11.1% career walk rate) and is a beatable opponent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Luke Raley is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The #7 park in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate at 83°.

As it relates to his home run ability, Jorge Soler ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jorge Soler is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Angel Stadium profiles as the #7 ballpark in baseball for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate at 83°.

When estimating his home run talent, Austin Riley ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Riley is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in baseball for righty batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 19° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corbin Carroll ranks as the 17th-best hitter in the league.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 19° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.

Guardians starter Slade Cecconi pitched to a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. He got rocked in his season debut and now he faces a Cubs lineup that leads the majors in hard-hit rate and is due for positive regression. The Cubs are sending Shota Imanaga to the hill. He had a 3.73 ERA last year but his FIP was significantly worse at 4.86. He also has a tendency to get hit hard and struggled in his season debut. 

The Guardians are sending Slade Cecconi to the mound after he surrendered six runs in 4 1/3 innings in his season debut. He had a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. The Cubs respond with southpaw Shota Imanaga who pitched to a 3.73 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP last year. Both teams are struggling at the dish but the Cubs were significantly more productive last year. They also lead the majors in hard-hit rate while the Guardians are 27th. Expect the Cubs big bats to break out against Cecconi.

Neither of these pitchers will miss many bats. Leahey’s is mostly by design, and Montero just doesn’t have much swing-and-miss stuff. 

The former’s whiff rate sat at the Bottom 11 percent of baseball last season, with some troubling metrics surrounding that. 

His 4.67 xERA and .260 xBA tell you the ball is in play constantly, and this Cardinals offense has shown some signs of improvement compared to last season, as they’ll arrive at this game rating fifth in the majors in solid contact rate.

While I’m slightly less bullish on the Detroit Tigers than the market and believe in the St. Louis Cardinals, I also hate this matchup for converted reliever Kyle Leahey. 

Ultimately, I sided with the Tigers, seeing about eight cents of value.