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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 4, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.13 |
-150 
|
o9.5 -109 
|
-1.5 +101
|
|
5.24 |
+140
|
u9.5 -108 
|
+1.5 -120 
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Reds are 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
o1.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.33 |
+170
|
o8.5 -110 
|
+1.5 -125 
|
|
5.62 |
-180
|
u9.0 -119
|
-1.5 +116 
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Angels last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts on grass.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Jones' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Jose Siri o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.87 |
-108
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
4.07 |
+120
|
u8.5 -118
|
+1.5 -135
|
Boston
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 on grass.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Coby Mayo u1.5 Total Bases (-165)
u1.5-165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.65 |
-161
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +108
|
|
3.53 |
+153
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -114
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Marlins are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Griffin Conine u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
u1.5-200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.25 |
+183
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
5.40 |
-198
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +125
|
San Francisco
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Giants last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-1 in McLeans last 6 starts vs. National League West.
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Mets last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+231)
o0.5+231
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.25 |
+135
|
o7.5 -118
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.92 |
-135
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +155
|
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Griffins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.32 |
+110
|
o9.0 -110
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
5.66 |
-120
|
u9.5 -130 
|
-1.5 +165
|
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0-1 in Matthews' last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Twins are 6-0 in Matthews' last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts on grass.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 8-0 in Feddes last 8 starts.
Top Projection
Kyle Teel o1.5 Total Bases (+245)
o1.5+245
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.68 |
+105
|
o8.0 -125
|
+1.5 -214
|
|
4.52 |
-110
|
u8.5 -108
|
-1.5 +162
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 on grass.
- Rays are 7-0 in Martinezs last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 10-1 in Rangers last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 games following a win.
Top Projection
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.70 |
+115
|
o8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.60 |
-125
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +162
|
Arizona
- Over is 4-0-2 in Kellys last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Kellys last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kellys last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 1-0-3 in Astros last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+132)
o1.5+132
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.21 |
+105
|
o9.5 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
5.13 |
-110
|
u13.5 -500
|
+1.5 -165
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Royals are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Royals are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total RBIs (+135)
o0.5+135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.49 |
-120
|
o11.0 +100
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
5.44 |
+115
|
u11.5 -128
|
+1.5 -137
|
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games following a loss.
Colorado
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 home games.
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Joshua Baez o0.5 Total RBIs (+120)
o0.5+129
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.65 |
-115
|
o7.5 +105
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
3.39 |
+105
|
u7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
San Diego
- Under is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 vs. American League East.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.39 |
+230
|
o8.0 -105
|
+1.5 +110
|
|
4.93 |
-260
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 -120
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in Snells last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in Snells last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Top Projection
Dylan Crews o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.23 |
+203
|
o5.0 -481
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
4.92 |
-220
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +105
|
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Gilberts last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total RBIs (+161)
o0.5+161
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.04 |
+162
|
o7.5 -125
|
+2.5 -280
|
|
|
5.22 |
-177
|
u8.0 -114
|
-1.5 +126
|
San Francisco
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1-2 in Giants last 7 overall.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Thorntons last 4 starts as a home underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.81 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.81 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 on grass.
- Over is 8-2 in Cubs last 10 vs. National League East.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Marlins are 4-0 in Gustos last 4 starts as a home underdog.
- Marlins are 4-0 in Gustos last 4 home starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.46 |
+143
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
5.20 |
-153
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +140
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Perezs last 4 starts on grass.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.90 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.01 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Detroit
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in Valdezs last 5 road starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Valdezs last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Cleveland
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.40 |
-153
|
o9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +105
|
|
|
4.64 |
+143
|
u9.5 -120
|
+1.5 -118
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.95 |
+157
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
|
4.73 |
-172
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +125
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Angels last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Kikuchis last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Angels last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Pirates last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.14 |
-135
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +115
|
|
|
4.25 |
+125
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -135
|
Boston
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 overall.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Orioles last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.71 |
-105
|
o6.5 -135
|
+1.5 -260
|
|
|
3.98 |
-105
|
u7.0 -115
|
-1.5 +190
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games.
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 on grass.
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.41 |
-105
|
o9.5 -115
|
+1.5 -220
|
|
|
5.45 |
-105
|
u9.5 -105
|
-1.5 +160
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Royals are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Royals are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Royals last 7 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.72 |
+106
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
|
4.54 |
-115
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +172
|
Minnesota
- Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games as a favorite.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a home favorite.
- White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 home games.
BOS
@
BAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Jarren Duran o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Jarren Duran will have an advantage today.. Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
Total Bases
Christian Encarnacion-Strand u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Christian Encarnacion-Strand is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.. Christian Encarnacion-Strand pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 84th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams playing today.
CHC
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Michael Busch o0.5 Total Home Runs (+575)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
There’s been a considerable dip in Michael Busch’s ISO against righties this season. He posted a rock-solid .245 mark across the past two seasons but is all the way down to a .141 ISO in 2026. So, with Miami righty Janson Junk allowing a healthy 16.7 blast-contact percentage at home, this is a long number for Busch to cash in on statistical correction and leave the yard tonight.
Total
u8.5 (-126)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Miami Marlins rank 27th in xwOBA and 25th in ISO over the past 30 days, while also checking in 20th in wOBA against lefties for the season. On top of that, Miami has also played to the Under in 26 of their last 40 home games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI). This is also a potential letdown spot for Chicago following the split of a key, divisional series against the Milwaukee Brewers, in which the Cubs scattered just 11 runs across the final three games.
SF
@
NYM
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 2.08
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Matt Wilkinson... and even better, Wilkinson has a large platoon split.. Francisco Lindor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Francisco Lindor will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Marcus Semien o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Considering Matt Wilkinson's large platoon split, Marcus Semien will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. Marcus Semien pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.1% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Marcus Semien will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Jo Adell is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The #2 park in MLB for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Progressive Field.. Given Andrew Sears's large platoon split, Jo Adell will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.
Total Bases
Kevin McGonigle o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin McGonigle in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Kevin McGonigle is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Kevin McGonigle has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
MIN
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:40 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Zebby Matthews u2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+104)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Zebby Matthews is rolling, staying under 2.5 earned runs in three straight outings while posting a 1.92 FIP over his last two appearances. He has avoided walks and homers, and now faces a White Sox lineup with a 66 wRC+ recently.
Total Bases
Luke Keaschall o1.5 Total Bases (+148)
Projection 1.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Luke Keaschall's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Luke Keaschall has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best field in the majors for boosting offensive stats to righties.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
TB
@
TEX
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.. Jake Burger will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Total Bases
Joc Pederson u1.5 Total Bases (-170)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Globe Life Field as the worst park in the league for run-scoring.. Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field's CF dimensions are the 6th-deepest.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
AZ
@
HOU
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
LaMonte Wade Jr. u1.5 Total Bases (-320)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects LaMonte Wade Jr. in the 15th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. LaMonte Wade Jr. is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the 4th-worst venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average.. Among all parks, the 3rd-highest fence height (on average) are at Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to lower offensive output.
Total Bases
Nolan Arenado o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.37
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst among every team playing today.
TOR
@
KC
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jac Caglianone o0.5 Total Home Runs (+344)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone both stand out in a strong matchup for the Royals, making it nearly impossible to choose just one. Kansas City’s young power hitters boast one of the highest matchup ratings on the slate while covering nearly 100% of Jameson Taillon’s pitch mix. Caglianone has also made the most of his elite Batters-Box ratings, leaving the yard 22% of the time across 30 such ratings this season. Over his last 10 games, the big fella has posted a .512 SLG and .186 ISO, while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate.
Total Home Runs
Carter Jensen o0.5 Total Home Runs (+388)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Carter Jensen finds himself in an appealing spot against Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Jameson Taillon, who owns the worst rating among pitchers in Batters-Box’s current-season dataset. Jensen also boasts the third-highest matchup rating, trailing only Yordan Alvarez and teammate Jac Caglianone. The Royals slugger has been crushing the ball over his last 10 games, posting a .914 SLG, .543 ISO, 63% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate. Taillon has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a 14.3% barrel rate and 71.4% elevation rate over his last 60 lefties. That combination gives Jensen plenty of home run upside.
STL
@
COL
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total Home Runs (+307)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Jordan Walker is an appealing power-hitting option at Coors Field, especially with his price sitting around 24%. The St. Louis Cardinals slugger has been making plenty of hard contact against right-handed pitching, posting a .483 SLG and .207 ISO over his last 30 at-bats. He has also recorded a 61.5% hard-hit rate and 11.5% barrel rate over his last 10 games, while keeping his ground-ball rate at just 30%. Walker draws Colorado right-hander Ryan Feltner, who has allowed a barrel rate over 15%, 4.05 HR/9 and a .720 SLG in his last three home starts.
Total Bases
Alec Burleson o1.5 Total Bases (-140)
Projection 2.33
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The #1 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 88°.
NYY
@
SD
Fri, Sep 4 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Trent Grisham o0.5 Total Home Runs (+510)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Trent Grisham hasn't shown his power stroke in a handful of weeks, but he's in a good spot against Buehler to launch one tonight. Not only does he have two career homers against him, but Buehler has been missing his spots recently, allowing three bombs over his last two starts. Grisham will look to sit on Buehler's changeup, a pitch he's given up five homers on this year. Let's fire him up with confidence.
Total
u7.5 (-121)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
For as good as Fried has been, Buehler actually has a good history against the Yankees, striking them out at a 30% clip while limiting them to a .229 xBA. I just don't see him outdueling Fried in this one, especially since the Padres own just a .691 OPS against lefties. The trends are on our side in this one, too, as both teams are a top-six Under team in baseball, hitting at a 54% clip or better this season.
WAS
@
LAD
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+494)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
With just a single home run across his past 26 games, Hernandez is eyeing statistical correction at the dish and has the handedness advantage against Washington starter Jackson Kent this evening. Hernandez’s .184 ISO against lefties is also well below the high-end .255 mark he posted across the past three years. Kent has surrendered a healthy .215 ISO to right-handed hitters, too.
Total
u8.5 (-115)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Dodgers veteran Blake Snell has allowed just three runs across his past four starts with a sterling 1.82 xERA and dominant 34.1 strikeout percentage, so I’m not anticipating the Nationals mounting enough offense to help send this total Over the number. Washington has dipped to 18th in wOBA on the road in the second half, after all.
ATH
@
SEA
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total Home Runs (+375)
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst
Cal Raleigh leads all of baseball with a 32.1% barrel rate against right-handed pitching during the last 30 days (min. 20 plate appearances). Raleigh didn’t catch a barrel yesterday, but both of his balls in play were 95+ mph off the bat. Morris has allowed a 37.2% fly-ball rate against left-handed hitters this season. There is a good chance we see Raleigh leave the yard this evening.
Total
u7.5 (-126)
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst
Logan Gilbert owns a 4.54 FIP at T-Mobile Park in 2026, but much of his struggles have been due to an inability to keep the ball in the yard. Cooler temperatures in Seattle this evening should help mitigate that issue. The Athletics offense is a good matchup for Gilbert, too, ranking only 14th in ISO and 19th in home runs against right-handed pitching since the beginning of August. If the bullpens for the Athletics and Mariners can avoid a late-inning meltdown, runs are likely to be at a premium.
TB
@
TEX
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:05 PM ET
Moneyline
TEX (-103)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Texas is swinging the bats at an elite level, ranking second in MLB with a 124 wRC+ over the last fortnight. Jacob deGrom at home as a plus-money underdog against a flat Tampa Bay offense (84 wRC+) is the clearest form-versus-price discrepancy on the entire Saturday slate.
NYY
@
SD
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:15 PM ET
Moneyline
NYY (-105)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Carlos Rodón and Robbie Ray should duel, but New York holds the offensive edge. The Yankees boast a 112 wRC+ over the last 14 days, compared to San Diego’s sluggish 91 wRC+. With pricing set essentially at pick'em, back the lineup producing extra-base hits at a higher rate.
AZ
@
HOU
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:15 PM ET
Moneyline
HOU (-105)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
At near pick'em odds, Houston has the decisive bullpen advantage. Houston relievers have dominated with a 3.02 FIP and 3.55 SIERA over the last two weeks. Arizona’s offense is sputtering down at an 84 wRC+, making Ethan Pecko and the Astros' superior bullpen the correct side tonight.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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