San Francisco @ Atlanta Picks & Props

Thairo Estrada pulls many of his flyballs (35.1% — 89th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's game. Thairo Estrada will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. Compared to his seasonal mark of 11.1°, Thairo Estrada has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (5.8°) in the last two weeks. Despite posting a .326 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Thairo Estrada has been lucky given the .016 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .310. When it comes to plate discipline, Thairo Estrada's skill is quite bad, putting up a 5.75 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 3rd percentile.

Ronald Acuna Jr. will hold the platoon advantage over Alex Wood in today's game... and moreover, Wood has a huge platoon split. The San Francisco Giants infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team today. In the last week, Ronald Acuna Jr.'s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.6%.

Michael Harris II has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 8.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week. Michael Harris II's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (4.4°) is significantly worse than his 8.2° angle last year. Michael Harris II's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, decreasing from 11% on the season to 0% in the last week.

The 3rd-deepest LF dimensions in MLB are found in Truist Park. Austin Riley will have the handedness advantage against Alex Wood in today's game... and the cherry on top, Wood has a huge platoon split. The San Francisco Giants infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team today.

J.D. Davis's BABIP ability is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). J.D. Davis is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. J.D. Davis will hold the platoon advantage over Max Fried in today's matchup.

Wilmer Flores is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Wilmer Flores will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Fried in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Wilmer Flores usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Fried.

Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Casey Schmitt will hold the platoon advantage against Max Fried in today's matchup. The Atlanta Braves infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams in action today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Casey Schmitt's true offensive skill to be a .296, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .052 gap between that figure and his actual .244 wOBA.

Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Kevin Pillar will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Kevin Pillar's footspeed has gotten better this year. His 27.11 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.18 ft/sec now. Kevin Pillar has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .300 rate is quite a bit lower than his .352 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Orlando Arcia hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Orlando Arcia will hold that advantage in today's game. In notching a .274 batting average this year, Orlando Arcia is positioned in the 79th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Matt Olson ranks as the 11th-best hitter in Major League Baseball. Matt Olson is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. The shallowest centerfield dimensions among all stadiums are found in Truist Park. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°.

Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. The switch-hitting Johan Camargo will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Max Fried. The Atlanta Braves infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Sean Murphy will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Sean Murphy has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, upping his 10.5% rate last year to 17.1% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Conforto in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. The shallowest centerfield dimensions among all stadiums are found in Truist Park. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. The Atlanta Braves infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams in action today.

Patrick Bailey is penciled in 4th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. The switch-hitting Patrick Bailey will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Max Fried. The Atlanta Braves infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams in action today.

Eddie Rosario has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (65% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. The shallowest centerfield dimensions among all stadiums are found in Truist Park. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Alex Wood will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eddie Rosario in today's matchup... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Wood's huge platoon split.

Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Nicky Lopez will hold the platoon advantage against Jakob Junis in today's game. The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nicky Lopez can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Nicky Lopez will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcell Ozuna is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Marcell Ozuna will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Heliot Ramos will hold the platoon advantage over Max Fried today. The Atlanta Braves infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams in action today.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Austin Slater is projected as the 13th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Austin Slater is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Austin Slater will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Fried today.

Travis d'Arnaud has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.