New York @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Jordan Walker is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game. Dingers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest among all parks. Carlos Carrasco will hold the platoon advantage against Jordan Walker today. Jordan Walker has done a bad job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 5.7° figure is among the lowest in the game this year (6th percentile).

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jeff McNeil today. From last season to this one, Jeff McNeil's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 16.7% to 11.9%. Jeff McNeil's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined in recent games, going from 40.9% on the season to 28.6% over the last 7 days.

Alec Burleson's BABIP talent is projected in the 22nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). This year, Alec Burleson has been pulled from the game early in 17% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter. In the league, Busch Stadium's right field dimensions are the 3rd-deepest. Alec Burleson has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past two weeks. Alec Burleson's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 90.2-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 85.9-mph over the past two weeks.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°. The New York Mets outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst among every team playing today. Masyn Winn will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 7th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Carlos Carrasco will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nolan Arenado in today's matchup. Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.4% — 100th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Over the last two weeks, Nolan Arenado's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal figure of 91.9 mph to 88.4 mph. Nolan Arenado's launch angle this season (17.2°) is a significant dropoff from his 21.7° mark last season.

Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and will be challenged by MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences today. Brandon Nimmo will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Brandon Nimmo's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 92-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 88.8-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Compared to his seasonal angle of 11.3°, Brandon Nimmo has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (6.5°) in the past 14 days.

The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will bat from his weak side (0) today against Dakota Hudson Francisco Lindor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and but may find it hard to clear MLB's 3rd-deepest RF fences today. Francisco Lindor will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Francisco Lindor has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 10.8% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last week. Francisco Lindor's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, decreasing from 17.9% on the season to 5.9% in the past 14 days.

In the league, Busch Stadium's right field dimensions are the 3rd-deepest. The switch-hitting Tommy Edman will lose the platoon advantage while batting from his weak side (0) today against Carlos Carrasco Tommy Edman has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph dropping to 85.2-mph in the last week's worth of games. Over the past two weeks, Tommy Edman's 25.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 39.2%. By putting up a .264 BABIP this year, Tommy Edman is ranked in the 13th percentile.

Pete Alonso projects as the 14th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°. Pete Alonso has made big strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 15.6% seasonal rate to 27.6% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Pete Alonso has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 107-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 94.8-mph.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°. Omar Narvaez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dakota Hudson today. Omar Narvaez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 81st percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Omar Narvaez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Dakota Hudson. Omar Narvaez has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, upping his 2.5% rate last year to 7.7% this season.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°. The New York Mets outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst among every team playing today. Luken Baker will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Carlos Carrasco will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Goldschmidt in today's matchup. Paul Goldschmidt has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Paul Goldschmidt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 16% to 12.7%.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°. The switch-hitting Jonathan Arauz will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Dakota Hudson. Jonathan Arauz has been hot in recent games, posting a a 14.3% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) over the past week. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.249) implies that Jonathan Arauz has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .182 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°. Tyler O'Neill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Tyler O'Neill will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°. The New York Mets outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°. Rafael Ortega will hold the platoon advantage over Dakota Hudson in today's game. Sporting a 1.81 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Rafael Ortega has shown strong plate discipline, grading out in the 88th percentile.

Daniel Vogelbach is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°. Daniel Vogelbach will have the handedness advantage against Dakota Hudson in today's game. Daniel Vogelbach hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Over the past 7 days, Daniel Vogelbach's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.1% up to 37.5%.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°. D.J. Stewart will have the handedness advantage against Dakota Hudson today. D.J. Stewart has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 16.7% seasonal rate to 40% in the past 7 days. D.J. Stewart has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 96.9-mph in the last 7 days. In the past two weeks, D.J. Stewart has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 28.2° compared to his seasonal mark of 20.4°.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°. Richie Palacios will hold the platoon advantage over Carlos Carrasco today. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Richie Palacios has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. The New York Mets outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst among every team playing today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Richie Palacios will hold that advantage in today's game.