San Diego @ Houston props

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 5th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today. Jeremy Pena has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 9.9% rate last year has fallen off to 4.1% this year. Jeremy Pena's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 93.2-mph average last year has fallen to 90.7-mph. Jeremy Pena's launch angle this season (5°) is significantly worse than his 8.4° angle last season.

Martin Maldonado will hold the platoon advantage over Blake Snell in today's game. Martin Maldonado pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Martin Maldonado will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Martin Maldonado has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 9.8% seasonal rate to 25% in the last week's worth of games. Martin Maldonado's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, going from 16.5% on the season to 37.5% in the last week.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 18th-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Tucker will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Kyle Tucker's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, going from 18.1% on the season to 28.6% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Kyle Tucker has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .377 rate is a good deal lower than his .403 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Trent Grisham ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Trent Grisham will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown today. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Trent Grisham stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. In the last two weeks, Trent Grisham's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95-mph over the course of the season to 97.4-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. Yainer Diaz will hold the platoon advantage against Blake Snell in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage today. Yainer Diaz has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 12.5% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last 7 days.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Yordan Alvarez has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.2-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 93-mph mark.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. Alex Bregman will have the handedness advantage against Blake Snell today. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Alex Bregman will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Chas McCormick will hold the platoon advantage over Blake Snell in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Chas McCormick will hold that advantage in today's game. Chas McCormick has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 103.8-mph average in the past week to his seasonal average of 95.4-mph. Chas McCormick's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (22.8°) is quite a bit higher than his 18.6° figure last season.

Matt Carpenter will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Brown today. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Carpenter can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Extreme groundball bats like Matt Carpenter are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown. Despite posting a .283 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Matt Carpenter has suffered from bad luck given the .052 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .335. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Matt Carpenter ranks in the 97th percentile with a 23.4° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in Major League Baseball.

In the past 7 days, Matthew Batten has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 10° compared to his seasonal mark of 5.4°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Abreu in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Jose Abreu will hold the platoon advantage over Blake Snell today. Jose Abreu will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Jose Abreu has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 8% seasonal rate to 20% in the past two weeks' worth of games. In the last 14 days, Jose Abreu's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.1-mph over the course of the season to 96.8-mph of late.