MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 97th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Eugenio Suarez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #1 field in the majors for right-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (39% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, CJ Abrams ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 5th-strongest of the day for bats.. CJ Abrams will have the handedness advantage against Lucas Giolito in today's game.

Jared Jones makes an electric return. He strikes out 9.76 batters per nine innings, which'll play against a Minnesota lineup with the third-highest K% (24.6%) and third-lowest contact% (73.6%) in the last 20 days. Pittsburgh demolishes RHP (112 wRC+ in L20) while Minnesota certainly does not (86).

 

Rogers has been hit hard and often over his last six starts, surrendering six home runs in that stretch off a 41% hard-hit rate. Additionally, the Jays have seen an uptick in their power numbers with eight homers over their last seven games. So the matchup favors Toronto to go yard tonight, and I’m betting on Kazuma Okamoto, who owns a team-high .596 slug rate against the four-seamer, with a 66% hard-hit rate. 

Max Meyer and Freddy Peralta have been dominant in the first inning all season, making this a strong NRFI spot. Meyer owns a 9-2 NRFI record and has limited the Mets to a .094 average, while Peralta hasn't allowed a first-inning run in 10 straight starts. Both offenses also struggle to score early.

When it comes to his home run skill, Kyle Manzardo ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Manzardo is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. The #5 park in the game for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in the league, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. Kyle Manzardo will have the handedness advantage over Tyler Samaniego today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Nick Martinez in the 8th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.. Because of his reverse platoon split, Nick Martinez will be at a disadvantage being matched up with 7 hitters in the projected offense of the same handedness in this outing.. Nick Martinez has notched an 8.1% Swinging Strike percentage this year, grading out in the 13th percentile.. Nick Martinez has notched a 14.7% strikeout rate this year, grading out in the 5th percentile.

Shota Imanaga and Kyle Leahy have consistently delivered clean opening frames, combining for a 17-4 NRFI record. St. Louis hasn't scored in the first inning in nine consecutive games, while Chicago ranks among the league's least productive first-inning offenses. Expect both starters to settle in quickly.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene as the 17th-best hitter in the majors when estimating his BABIP skill.. Riley Greene is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The #5 park in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the majors.. Riley Greene will have the handedness advantage over Brandon Eisert today.

Offense has been hard to find for both Kansas City and Texas lately, which supports another NRFI play. Stephen Kolek has yet to allow a first-inning run this season, while MacKenzie Gore owns an 8-3 NRFI record. With both lineups struggling early, a scoreless first inning is likely.

As it relates to his BABIP ability, Christian Yelich is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christian Yelich is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Kai-Wei Teng throws from, Christian Yelich will have an edge in today's game.. Christian Yelich has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Christian Yelich has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 91.7-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.4-mph figure.

Rafael Devers is in an elite spot tonight against Michael Lorenzen at Coors Field, but instead of laying juice on traditional props like total bases or HRR, there is more value attacking his ceiling outcome. Rather than paying steep prices for safer markets, sprinkling on Devers to record a double and a home run offers far better upside at plus money. If Devers is going to do damage in this matchup, the expectation is that it comes in loud fashion. Coors Field only adds to that potential, and when a home run just misses, it often turns into a double off the wall anyway.

When you’re cold, it’s never a bad idea to take the most probable home run on the slate today at a projection of 0.39 HR from New York’s Aaron Judge. With an implied 0.33 HR from the +246 price, it grades out as a +EV spot for a Judge homer. This is also the second-best home run park on the slate, per Ballpark Pal, and the matchup is favorable for the right-handed slugger, who ranks as THE BAT’s No. 1 hitter in baseball. Luis Severino has struggled significantly at Sutter Health Park, where his ERA is roughly two runs higher than his season average and was three runs higher there last year. His 2.2 HR/9 at home is among the worst marks in baseball, and he has already allowed multiple home runs in three of his four home starts this season. Judge also has history in the matchup, going 4-for-8 with a home run and four RBIs across eight at-bats against Severino.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 14th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. The #2 venue in the game for suppressing batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this game forecasts the lowest temperature on the slate today at 58°.. In the past 7 days, Josh Naylor's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

This spot makes for an appealing Under as both bullpens are fully rested following Thursday’s off day. Philadelphia, which has ace Zack Wheeler on the bump, has a 2.00 SIERA and 28.9 K-BB% in relief over the last 20 days. LA holds a 2.94 FIP in that span.

 

Drew Rasmussen vs. the New York Yankees is a mismatch on paper — the righty is 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 51 punchouts in eight career games against New York. Coming off a thrilling comeback win on Friday, the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays are primed to keep the foot on the gas behind their dynamic arm to create more separation in the AL East.