The left-handed Kyle Stowers gets to unleash his Top-50 bat speed against one of the most homer-friendly pitchers in baseball, Aaron Nola. Only Jeffrey Springs has allowed more home runs this season, and Springs at least has the excuse of pitching at Sutter Health Field. Nola doesn't. Left-handed hitters have done the most damage, hitting nearly twice as many home runs as righties against the Phillies starter since 2024. He ranks 25th among MLB starters in HR/9 and 24th in HR/FB rate. Six of Nola's last eight starts have turned into multi-homer outings, with 14 long balls allowed over that 42-inning stretch. You could make a case for several Marlins bats today, but I like the price on Stowers the most. He also projects as Miami's most likely hitter to go deep. Heriberto Hernandez at +450 or better was another strong consideration, and pairing the two in an HRRBI stack at plus money is worth a look.

Dean Kremer is always a good pitcher fade and even better today on the road with 18-mph winds blowing out to center field. Lefties always give the Baltimore starter trouble, with 70% of his home runs allowed this year and 66% since 2024. That puts me on a left-handed bat of Detroit, and I'm settling on the rookie, Kevin McGonigle, at +488. The AL rookie of the year betting favorite (-240) has a fair price of around +420, with his last HR cashing at +375 vs. another righty in Ryan Johnson. Looking under the hood, his IdealAtkAng% tops the team over the last week, and he is getting a ton of balls in play with just a 4% walk rate and hitting .306 over his last nine games, which comes with a hit in all but one of those games. Is he crushing the ball right now? Not exactly, but this matchup and wind are enough to aid any hitter, especially one who owns a .859 OPS vs. right-handers and might not have to face any left-handed options out of the Baltimore bullpen today.

The Mets have consistently hit Chris Sale well, producing a .920 OPS against him. New York’s bats are also heating up, ranking fifth in OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, Christian Scott faces a daunting challenge against a Braves lineup that's been one of baseball’s best against right-handed pitching this month. Add in Atlanta’s struggling bullpen, and this game has a strong chance to clear the total.

Anthony Kay looks like he might be slowing down in his first MLB season since 2023. His last five outings have lasted 79, 83, 92, 48, and 73 pitches, and over that stretch, he has cleared this number just once with 17 strikeouts across 22 innings. Kay likely needs to reach 18 outs to get to five punchouts, and that is something he has done only once over his last 10 starts. The matchup against the Yankees always brings some risk, as New York has been a Top-3 strikeout offense all season, but 16-mph winds blowing out to right field aren't going to help Kay stay on the mound. The Yankees also chased him after just four innings in their last meeting in June, when Kay finished with only two strikeouts. The stuff can play, but the inconsistency and leash remain the biggest concerns. Covers projections have Kay at 4.31 strikeouts, making the break-even price around -130.

With two below average pitchers taking the mound, this game has all the makings of a high scoring affair. Colin Rea has been a disaster on the road, posting a 6.45 ERA, 5.66 xERA, and 1.61 WHIP while allowing an 11.05% barrel rate. Michael McGreevy hasn't been much better away from home, carrying a 4.58 expected ERA with a 41.57% hard hit rate and 9.55% barrel rate allowed. Neither starter inspires much confidence, and both lineups should have opportunities to do damage. It only takes one of these arms to unravel for this game to fly over the total.

If this game had been played a month ago, this matchup would have looked a lot different for the Boston Red Sox. But after acquiring Jahmai Jones from the Detroit Tigers and trading Connelly Early to the Washington Nationals for Curtis Mead, they now have two right-handed bats they can slot near the top of the order against Athletics left-hander Gage Jump. And it's not just those two. The Red Sox are expected to attack Jump with a lineup loaded with right-handed hitters, as seven of their nine starters bat from the right side. Jump's slider is his primary putaway pitch, but with so many right-handed bats in the lineup, Boston could disrupt his pitch sequencing and limit his ability to use that slider as an effective strikeout weapon. The Red Sox are trading as a 58-cent favorite on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 63-cent favorite, which is why I'm hitting the button.

Luis Castillo is coming off a 101-pitch game where he went seven innings but still managed only three strikeouts. It was the sixth straight start for the right-hander to go Under this total. His K% is down from last year, marking the third straight season his K% has dropped. His four-seam velocity has also been on the decline since 2022. A road date, where his K/9 numbers are worse since 2024, vs. a legit Dodgers lineup, is not a great spot to expect Castillo to get back to his glory years, and why the projections are showing this fair price of -115/-120. 

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.