MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 1, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Chicago White Sox logo CHW @ Baltimore Orioles logo BAL Wed, Jul 1 • 12:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Braden Montgomery logo
Braden Montgomery u0.5 Total Home Runs (-319)
Projection 0.13
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Braden Montgomery in today's game.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Braden Montgomery's swing has not been well optimized for home runs, hitting a mere 7.4% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.
Total Bases
Braden Montgomery logo
Braden Montgomery o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.96
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Colson Montgomery as the league's 16th-best home run batter.. Colson Montgomery is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Colson Montgomery will have the upper hand in today's game.
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Texas Rangers logo TEX @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Wed, Jul 1 • 1:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Chase DeLauter logo
Chase DeLauter o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
Projection 0.51
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chase DeLauter in the 79th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Chase DeLauter is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Progressive Field grades out as the #2 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Chase DeLauter has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.
Total RBIs
Ezequiel Duran logo
Ezequiel Duran o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.46
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Ezequiel Duran's BABIP ability is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ezequiel Duran is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. Progressive Field grades out as the #2 field in the majors for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Joey Cantillo throws from, Ezequiel Duran will have an advantage in today's matchup.
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Washington Nationals logo WAS @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Wed, Jul 1 • 1:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Caleb Durbin logo
Caleb Durbin u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.9
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 14th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Caleb Durbin is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense.. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The Washington Nationals outfield defense projects as the best out of every team playing today.
Total Bases
CJ Abrams logo
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.82
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Fenway Park projects as the #4 ballpark in baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for hitters.. CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.
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Detroit Tigers logo DET @ New York Yankees logo NYY Wed, Jul 1 • 1:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Spencer Jones logo
Spencer Jones u0.5 Total Hits (+130)
Projection 0.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Spencer Jones is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #1 ballpark in the league for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Yankee Stadium's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output.. Spencer Jones has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game.. Spencer Jones has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 95.9-mph dropping to 92.4-mph over the past two weeks.
Total Bases
Spencer Jones logo
Spencer Jones u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Spencer Jones is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #1 ballpark in the league for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Yankee Stadium's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output.. Spencer Jones has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game.. Spencer Jones has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 95.9-mph dropping to 92.4-mph over the past two weeks.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Wed, Jul 1 • 2:20 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Xander Bogaerts logo
Xander Bogaerts o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.83
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Xander Bogaerts's batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The 7th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Wrigley Field.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 92°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for hitters.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Xander Bogaerts's true offensive skill to be a .328, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .034 gap between that figure and his actual .294 wOBA.
Total Bases
Alex Bregman logo
Alex Bregman o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.94
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude in MLB, which tends to lead to more offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the most suitable for hitting on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.9-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for hitters.. Alex Bregman pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
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New York Mets logo NYM @ Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR Wed, Jul 1 • 3:07 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Kazuma Okamoto logo
Kazuma Okamoto o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.76
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kazuma Okamoto in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Kazuma Okamoto is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 5th-best venue in the game for righty home runs.. In MLB, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 8th-shallowest.. Kazuma Okamoto will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Andres Gimenez logo
Andres Gimenez o1.5 Total Bases (+230)
Projection 1.31
Best Odds
Pick made: 29 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In MLB, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 8th-shallowest.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Andres Gimenez will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Andres Gimenez will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.
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Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT @ Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI Wed, Jul 1 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Bryan Reynolds logo
Bryan Reynolds o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.68
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his BABIP skill, Bryan Reynolds is projected as the 20th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.8-mph in this contest, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Zack Wheeler... and even better, Wheeler has a large platoon split.
Total Bases
J.T. Realmuto logo
J.T. Realmuto o1.5 Total Bases (+198)
Projection 1.39
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for home runs.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate today at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and J.T. Realmuto will hold that advantage in today's game.
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St. Louis Cardinals logo STL @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Wed, Jul 1 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ivan Herrera logo
Ivan Herrera o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. Ivan Herrera hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.. Extreme flyball hitters like Ivan Herrera tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Reynaldo Lopez.
Total Bases
JJ Wetherholt logo
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.72
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Wetherholt in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. JJ Wetherholt is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. The #10 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. JJ Wetherholt will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Reynaldo Lopez today.
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Tampa Bay Rays logo TB @ Kansas City Royals logo KC Wed, Jul 1 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Junior Caminero logo
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (-150)
Projection 2.44
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Junior Caminero projects as the 18th-best batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The #5 stadium in the league for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 14.5-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for batters.
Total Bases
Jonathan Aranda logo
Jonathan Aranda o1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Projection 2.06
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #5 stadium in the league for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with cold weather, and the weather report for this matchup projects the 5th-lowest temperature of all games on the slate today at 91°.
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Minnesota Twins logo MIN @ Houston Astros logo HOU Wed, Jul 1 • 8:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Josh Bell logo
Josh Bell o1.5 Total Bases (+153)
Projection 1.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 29 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Josh Bell is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for home runs.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Josh Bell will get to bat from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Tatsuya Imai) in today's game.. The Houston Astros outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of every team in action today.. Posting a .349 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Josh Bell grades out in the 83rd percentile for hitting ability.
Total Bases
Christian Walker logo
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+141)
Projection 1.66
Best Odds
Pick made: 42 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Christian Walker ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for home runs.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of every team playing today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today's game.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL Wed, Jul 1 • 8:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz logo
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 21 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his BABIP ability, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game.. Among all stadiums, American Family Field has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to better offense.. Elly De La Cruz has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last year's 90.7-mph EV.
Total Bases
Eugenio Suarez logo
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.64
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #9 park in baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in American Family Field.. Among all stadiums, American Family Field has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.
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Miami Marlins logo MIA @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Wed, Jul 1 • 8:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez logo
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (-122)
Projection 2.16
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 84th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best stadium in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Batting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Heriberto Hernandez will have an edge in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Esteury Ruiz logo
Esteury Ruiz o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.68
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Esteury Ruiz is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best stadium in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Batting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Esteury Ruiz will have an advantage in today's game.. Among all the teams playing today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Colorado Rockies.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Athletics Athletics logo ATH Wed, Jul 1 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani logo
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (-130)
Projection 2.76
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The #2 venue in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. On average, the fence height at Sutter Health Park is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.
Total Bases
Nick Kurtz logo
Nick Kurtz o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 2.01
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Nick Kurtz ranks as the 8th-best hitter in the league.. Nick Kurtz is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #2 venue in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. On average, the fence height at Sutter Health Park is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.
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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ Wed, Jul 1 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Casey Schmitt logo
Casey Schmitt o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Casey Schmitt ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Casey Schmitt is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. The #2 park in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Casey Schmitt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 15.5% to 19.2%.. Casey Schmitt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, rising from 19.2% on the season to 23.5% in the past two weeks' worth of games.
Total RBIs
Pavin Smith logo
Pavin Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+256)
Projection 0.46
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Chase Field projects as the #2 stadium in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Pavin Smith will have the handedness advantage over Trevor McDonald today... and moreover, McDonald has a large platoon split.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Pavin Smith will hold that advantage today.. As it relates to his home runs, Pavin Smith has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His 15.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.8.. Pavin Smith has put up a .317 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 80th percentile.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
2 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Brice Turang logo
Brice Turang o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.52
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Brice Turang is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Brice Turang will have an edge today.. Brice Turang has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.3-mph average to last season's 94-mph average.
Total RBIs
Alec Burleson logo
Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+174)
Projection 0.56
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Sproat throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge today.. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
6 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Game Prop
St. Louis Cardinals logo o2.5 Team Total (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Earned Runs Allowed
Zac Gallen logo Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 9 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 19 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 12 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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