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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 23, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.45 |
+145 
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -150 
|
|
4.25 |
-165 
|
u8.0 -125 
|
-1.5 +135
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Valdezs last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Valdezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Tigers last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Kevin McGonigle u0.5 Total Hits (+182)
u0.5+182
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+110
|
o7.0 -120 
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.33 |
-125 
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +172
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Scherzers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
-148
|
o7.5 -118
|
-1.5 +115
|
|
3.20 |
+135
|
u8.0 -114 
|
+1.5 -130
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-3 in Prielipps last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 8-1 in Twins last 9 games following a win.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 games as a road underdog.
San Francisco
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Connor Prielipp o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+110)
o4.5-170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.20 |
+105
|
o7.5 -127
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
|
3.68 |
-120
|
u8.5 -122 
|
-1.5 +176
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games as a road underdog.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Pete Alonso u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
u0.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.39 |
-125
|
o7.0 -110
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
4.05 |
+115
|
u7.5 -125 
|
+1.5 -150
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Nolas last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Nolas last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+226)
o0.5+226
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.23 |
+120
|
o7.0 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.29 |
-129
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +175
|
St. Louis
- Over is 7-0 in Liberatores last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 8-0-1 in Cardinals last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Cardinals are 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Bachars last 6 starts on grass.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Ryan O'Hearn o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
o0.5+265
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.04 |
+125
|
o6.5 -104
|
+1.5 -197
|
|
3.96 |
-135
|
u7.5 -185
|
-1.5 +176
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Coles last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts overall.
- Under is 8-1 in Coles last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.79 |
+115
|
o6.5 -119
|
+1.5 -197
|
|
3.83 |
-130
|
u6.5 +105
|
-1.5 +180
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Grays last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+209)
o0.5+209
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.66 |
+220
|
o6.5 -175
|
+3.5 -278
|
|
4.57 |
-250
|
u7.5 -120
|
-3.5 +220
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 4-0-2 in Reds last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Jose Trevino o0.5 Total Home Runs (+2200)
o0.5+2200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.10 |
-113
|
o8.5 -108
|
-1.5 +148
|
|
4.95 |
+100
|
u8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -170
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 6-0 in Feddes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lugos last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Lugos last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.18 |
+150
|
o6.5 -120
|
+1.5 -155
|
|
4.01 |
-170
|
u7.5 -165
|
-1.5 +135
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
-107
|
o7.5 -108
|
-1.5 +162
|
|
3.89 |
-108
|
u7.5 -106
|
+1.5 -190
|
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in McLeans last 4 starts vs. American League West.
Texas
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Rangers last 9 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+187)
o0.5+187
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.37 |
-155
|
o10.0 -177
|
-1.5 -102
|
|
5.22 |
+135
|
u12.5 -175
|
+1.5 -110
|
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Kellys last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Pavin Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+240
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.41 |
-129
|
o9.0 -155
|
+2.5 -600
|
|
4.86 |
+116
|
u9.5 -110
|
-2.5 +350
|
LA Angels
- Over is 6-0 in Angels last 6 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Athletics
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 home starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Springs' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-130)
o1.5-125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.64 |
+185
|
o7.5 -139
|
+3.5 -286
|
|
5.46 |
-215
|
u10.5 -250
|
-3.5 +225
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 during game 2 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Yamamotos last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
o1.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.01 |
+112
|
o7.5 -109
|
+1.5 -182
|
|
4.56 |
-126
|
u8.0 -124
|
-1.5 +160
|
Houston
- Under is 7-0-2 in Astros last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Astros last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Seattle
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mariners last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Randy Arozarena o0.5 Total RBIs (+275)
o0.5+275
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.70 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.34 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Leahys last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.30 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.85 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games.
- Over is 8-2 in White Sox last 10 vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as a favorite.
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0 in Royals last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Royals last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Royals last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Royals last 5 vs. American League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.51 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.45 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cubs last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.74 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.54 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 on grass.
Texas
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games.
- Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.35 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.89 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games.
- Diamondbacks are 9-0 in Rodriguezs last 9 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rodriguezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.51 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.64 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Over is 8-1-1 in Brewers last 10 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.65 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.34 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Suarezs last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 home starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.48 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.29 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
- Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 overall.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 home starts.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Yankees last 8 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.38 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.39 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cincinnati
- Over is 6-0-1 in Singers last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Reds last 8 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Reds last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in Mahles last 5 starts on grass.
- Braves are 5-0 in Mahles last 5 starts.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.61 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.28 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Houston
- Under is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-1 in Astros last 9 games as a favorite.
- Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 road games.
Athletics
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 11-1 in last 12 vs. American League West.
WAS
@
DET
Wed, Sep 23 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+600)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 20%. Spencer Torkelson’s recent contact profile is encouraging, with a 50% hard-hit rate, 10% barrel rate, and .235 ISO over the last week. He also owns a 54.9% fly-ball rate at home, and Washington’s vulnerable bullpen gives him multiple opportunities to leave the yard.
Total
o7.5 (-129)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 60%. Washington’s pitching setup creates plenty of scoring potential, while the Nationals themselves have been productive against left-handed arms. That gives both sides a path to contributing offensively. Even with Detroit’s bullpen pitching well, there should be enough volatility here for this game to reach eight runs.
TOR
@
BAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 1:35 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Chris Bassitt o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
There is a little juice here, but Chris Bassitt projects for a full leash on extra rest and 4.32 Ks today against his former team. He just faced the Jays two starts ago and struck out five on the road on a 95-pitch leash with the same total and a similar price. The Jays are on the ropes, and the doubleheader today could mean an easier lineup to navigate, which could be without Vladimir Guerrero. Bassitt has gone Over this total in six straight games and hit six Ks in half of those. If the juice drops even more, I'd suggest hitting his 5+ Ks at plus money or adding his Over 1.5 walks to beef up those odds.
Total Home Runs
Jeremiah Jackson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+900)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Jeremiah Jackson has the best expected value at this 10x price, with a 5% edge. Max Scherzer is a good target after the Orioles saw him just two starts ago and tagged him for seven hits and six runs over 15 outs. Dylan Beavers hit a leadoff homer against Max, but his price is too short for my liking today. Colton Cowser at 8x is also a good option, as he has two dingers off the future Hall of Fame pitcher, but I want the big number on Jeremiah Jackson today. Jackson got the day off Monday but should be seeing the majority of the reps at second down the stretch while hitting in the lower third. The majority of his homers have come against right-handers, and his home splits show a batter more comfortable at Camden. He hit four bombs over his last seven Triple-A games before getting the call-up in early September and still has two taters in nine games. The power is there, and so is the price.
MIN
@
SF
Wed, Sep 23 • 3:45 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Connor Prielipp o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+116)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
This is the best +EV strikeout prop, per THE BAT, with a fair price of -150. Connor Prielipp gets to rack up Ks against an afternoon Giants lineup that is striking out at a 25% clip this month. Zebby Matthews had nine Ks against this lineup on Monday with a total of 4.5, and Taj Bradley sat down six over six three-hit innings yesterday. The Minnesota starter is coming off seven scoreless innings on 92 pitches with eight Ks. He has double-digit punchout potential today and is better than a K-per-inning pitcher with a 90-plus-pitch leash. Since the break, he has been held to fewer than five Ks just once across 10 starts. His floor is solid, and the ceiling today is high.
Total Home Runs
Victor Bericoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+850)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Bericoto has five homers and a solid .192 ISO across 102 plate appearances, and he sports an elite 59.5% hard-hit rate against lefties. So, in a game I’m forecasting to be low-scoring, the San Fran rookie checks out as a flier candidate to leave the yard this afternoon.
TOR
@
BAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:35 PM ET
Total Bases
Coby Mayo u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-worst field in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits.. Hitting from the same side that Spencer Miles throws from, Coby Mayo will have a tough challenge today.. In today's game, Coby Mayo is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.3% rate (98th percentile).
Total Hits
Pete Alonso u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-worst field in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits.. Batting from the same side that Spencer Miles throws from, Pete Alonso will have a tough challenge in today's game.
MIL
@
PHI
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
William Contreras o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Contreras has a high-end .882 OPS with a homer across 34 plate appearances against Philly starter Aaron Nola. Of course, Nola has also served up 14 homers with a .225 ISO to right-handed hitters.
Total
o7.5 (+103)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This Over 7.5 is in play to -105 because Philadelphia has scored 4.7 runs per game across the past two weeks, and Milwaukee has been even better with 6.5 per game. Both teams have trended to the Over, too, and I'm anticipating the Brewers doing damage against Phillies veteran Aaron Nola. His 2.10 ERA across his past 10 starts is miles below his underlying 3.69 xERA and 3.78 xFIP, after all.
STL
@
PIT
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total RBIs (+273)
Projection 0.43
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. PNC Park ranks as the #3 venue in the league for righty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today.. Utilizing Statcast data, Ivan Herrera is in the 92nd percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .367.
Total Bases
Brandon Lowe u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
In the majors, the 6th-tallest fences are at PNC Park.. Dingers are generally less common at venues with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league stadiums.. Hitting from the same side that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Brandon Lowe has a tough challenge in today's matchup.. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the 5th-best among every team playing today.. Despite posting a .352 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brandon Lowe has had some very good luck given the .033 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .319.
TB
@
NYY
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:05 PM ET
Outs Recorded
Gerrit Cole u17.5 Outs Recorded (-105)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
There are two angles working against each other here, but pushing Gerrit Cole today makes no sense for the Yankees. The Rays secured the AL East last night, so they might not be at their best today, but Cole still needs to get to 90-plus pitches to get those 18 outs. With the injuries to New York hitters and the No. 4 seed locked in, there is no need to push Cole. Cole has not thrown more than 90 pitches in five straight starts and has 79 pitches or fewer in two of those. There isn't a lot of risk at this price in betting on a small leash from Cole with so much on the line in the postseason, a postseason where anyone in the AL can make the World Series. Cole is already at 121 innings after not pitching last year, so I hope he is handled with care today in his last start, in a game that means nothing for playoff seeding.
Total Home Runs
Paul Goldschmidt o0.5 Total Home Runs (+475)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Paul Goldschmidt has hit .307 with a .281 ISO and 13.1% barrel rate vs. southpaws this season.
His numbers actually increase when isolating the fastball-changeup combination Ian Seymour is heavily reliant on, with the ISO climbing to .312.
Goldschmidt has homered in 24.1% of his games against left-handed starters ranking in the 60th percentile or worse in HR/9 vs. RHH.
CLE
@
BOS
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Chase DeLauter o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Sonny Gray really likes to mix it up on the mound but the two pitches he throws more than 20% of the time are fastballs and curveballs.
That sets up well for Chase DeLauter, who has teed off on that combination over his last 25 games.
He is sporting a .519 average with a .444 ISO, 16.7 barrel rate, and near 97 mile per hour average exit velocity.
Total
u7.5 (-129)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I like the Under to 58%.
Sonny Gray owns a 2.33 ERA over nine starts vs. Bottom-10 teams in OBP. That’s noteworthy as the Cleveland Guardians slot 22nd on the year.
While Foster Griffin has not limited runs as effectively with the Guardians, he has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park. He is allowing 0.96 home runs per nine innings with Cleveland.
CIN
@
ATL
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:15 PM ET
Spread
ATL -1.5 (-109)
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst
Sure, I’ll back Chris Sale and his 1.66 home ERA against a team that can’t hit lefties. The Reds rank 28th in OPS vs LHP over the last two weeks, while Atlanta is 10-3 in Sale’s home starts and should be eager to bounce back after losing yesterday. Andrew Abbott has been obliterated for 23 earned runs across his last four road starts. Cincinnati's bullpen offers little relief, ranking dead last in ERA (6.04) over the last two weeks.
Total Bases
Jose Trevino o1.5 Total Bases (+330)
Projection 1.07
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for boosting offensive stats to RHB.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. This game is forecasted to have the 34th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Given Chris Sale's huge platoon split, Jose Trevino will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.
CHW
@
KC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 park in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Salvador Perez will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Salvador Perez's true offensive ability to be a .316, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .038 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .278 wOBA.. Salvador Perez has performed at a clip of 36.0 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, checking in at the 96th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 park in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Bobby Witt Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
MIA
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Nico Hoerner u0.5 Total Hits (+202)
Projection 0.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Nico Hoerner is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 15-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for pitchers.. Ryan Gusto will have the handedness advantage against Nico Hoerner today.. Nico Hoerner has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. This year, Nico Hoerner's 1.4% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 2nd percentile among his peers.
Total Bases
Michael Conforto u1.5 Total Bases (-260)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Among all parks, Wrigley Field's right field dimensions are the 5th-deepest.. In MLB, the 7th-highest fence height (on average) are at Wrigley Field.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 15-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for pitchers.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael Conforto's true offensive talent to be a .314, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .035 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .349 wOBA.. Michael Conforto has put up a .223 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
NYM
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Juan Soto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+410)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Let's start things off with a mispriced Juan Soto bomb at 5.1x, where the fair value is closer to 3.5x. The Rangers are likely to start Cody Bradford, who was demoted to a bulk-relief role after giving up 11 runs in three starts and 11-plus innings. The Rangers are desperate, sitting three games out of the Wild Card spot, and pushing that bullpen, combined with this pressure, is a good spot for Soto, who has seven hits over his last 19 plate appearances. The value is coming from the lefty-vs-lefty matchup, but Bradford's leash is not long. Sixty-five pitches could be in the cards, and maybe even fewer if he stumbles. It's an indoor game with the thermostat falling quickly.
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.98
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in the league.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Globe Life Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 17.6%.. Despite posting a .384 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Juan Soto has had some very poor luck given the .015 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .399.
AZ
@
COL
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total Home Runs (+410)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Here is another 5.1x home run that should have a fair value of 3.5x at Coors Field against the worst HR/9 pitcher on the slate. Carroll has been demoted to the fifth spot in the lineup due to a September slump, but he still has three dingers and an .826 OPS over his last 10 games. If that's a slump, I'm buying the dip. The wind is blowing out to his pull side, and a matchup against Mason Adams is a great thing at this price. Adams has allowed a homer in each of his five starts and has given up six homers in 23 innings, with a 3.0 HR/9 and 9.00 ERA at Coors. I would love three plate appearances against Mason, who lefties are hitting .341 against.
Total RBIs
Pavin Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pavin Smith in the 75th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. This contest is expected to have the 12th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Batting from the opposite that Mason Adams throws from, Pavin Smith will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
LAA
@
ATH
Wed, Sep 23 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Henry Bolte o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his BABIP talent, Henry Bolte is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Henry Bolte has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (51% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 85°.
Total Bases
Travis d'Arnaud u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Travis d'Arnaud in the 21st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Travis d'Arnaud is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. The 6th-deepest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Sutter Health Park.. Travis d'Arnaud will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.. Travis d'Arnaud's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 88.7-mph figure last year has fallen to 86.7-mph.
SD
@
LAD
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Will Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Will Smith ranks as the 16th-best batter in the game.. Will Smith is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The #2 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 2nd-best for hitting on the slate.
Total Bases
Jackson Merrill u1.5 Total Bases (-173)
Projection 0.88
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jackson Merrill today.. Jackson Merrill has exhibited bad plate discipline this year, placing in the 10th percentile with a 3.83 K/BB rate.
HOU
@
SEA
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Josh Naylor u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Josh Naylor has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks T-Mobile Park as the 2nd-worst ballpark in MLB for run-scoring.. T-Mobile Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Josh Naylor's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 90.3-mph average last season has lowered to 88.2-mph.. Josh Naylor's 4.7% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) is in the 22nd percentile this year.
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks T-Mobile Park as the 2nd-worst ballpark in MLB for run-scoring.. T-Mobile Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Cal Raleigh's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 97-mph average last year has dropped to 93.4-mph.. Cal Raleigh's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, decreasing from 39% to 31.4%.. By putting up a .230 BABIP this year, Cal Raleigh is positioned in the 1st percentile.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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