MLB Picks

Riley Greene was one of the Detroit heroes yesterday with a decisive two-run blast, and he also clubbed a pair of homers in Cleveland on Saturday as part of a scorching start to September. He's posted a 1.292 OPS across six games so far this month.

I see that continuing here against Kremer, who's allowing 2.0 dingers per nine innings in 2026 - up from 1.2 last season, and a vulnerable Minnesota bullpen.

Harper boasts a third-ranked .303 ISO against righties among qualified hitters, and it’s been 10 games since his last homer despite a 40.0% hard-hit rate and going 12-for-36 at the dish. So, with 23 of his 27 homers coming off of right-handed pitchers, this is a spot for Harper to square one up and leave the yard tonight. 

We’re backing Miami Marlins slugger Heriberto Hernandez to do damage against New York Mets southpaw Sean Manaea. Hernandez has been excellent against left-handed pitching this season, posting a .543 SLG and .879 OPS, while his recent form has been even more encouraging. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .289 ISO and 17.4% ground-ball rate while barreling the ball more than 17% of the time. Meanwhile, Manaea has struggled over his recent outings, posting a 5.87 ERA over his last five games and a 7.79 ERA over his last three starts. The matchup favors Hernandez, so let’s fade Manaea.

I'll roll with Jazz Chisholm at this price point. His 22.7% pull rate on airballs also gives him a clear path to turn a mistake into a short right-field porch shot. 

Hughes’ low whiff rate means Chisholm should get a chance to put the ball in play, and one elevated fastball is enough for his power to take Hughes' deep in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.

Junior Caminero draws a strong matchup against Braves right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver, who has struggled mightily against right-handed hitters this season. Across 33 righties, Smith-Shawver has allowed a .346 BA, .538 SLG and 1.023 OPS while generating just a 33% ground-ball rate. Caminero owns the highest matchup rating in this game over at Batters-Box, where he leaves the yard 32.26% of the time with an elite road rating. He also covers nearly 97% of Smith-Shawver’s pitch mix. Over his last 10 games, Caminero has posted a .525 SLG, .250 ISO and 51.6% hard-hit rate, making him a strong home run candidate.

Sean Burke has struggled to find the strike zone lately, and the numbers suggest another tough matchup against the Pirates. The White Sox right-hander owns the third-highest walk rate among pitchers over their last five starts, while his 18.8% walk rate over his last three ranks second. Pittsburgh has been patient at the plate, hovering around a 10% walk rate over its last 12 games, with at least six hitters reaching a 10% walk rate over their last 10 games. In a small 18-game sample, Burke has surpassed this prop more than 55% of the time, making this an appealing early look.

Bobby Witt Jr. finds himself in a great spot Tuesday against Diamondbacks starter Corbin Burnes, who is making his first start since June 2025. Witt Jr. has gone over 1.5 bases in 65% of 60 Batters-Box strong ratings at home over the last few seasons. The star shortstop has been tearing the cover off the ball over his last 10 games, posting a 53% hard-hit rate and a barrel rate above 20%. Four of his last 10 batted balls traveled over 101 MPH. With Burnes returning, I expect Witt Jr. to generate extra bases.

Chourio has already taken Cubs lefty David Peterson deep twice across 12 plate appearances, and the Milwaukee outfielder also sports a high-end .211 ISO against lefties for the year. I also value Chourio’s current form at the dish. He boasts a monster .259 ISO and 42.1 squared-up contact rate across his past 12 games.

The Nationals have dropped five straight games and have seen their market price fall, trading at just 37% today in a matchup where I think they can be competitive. James Wood is back and has gone 6-for-19 with three extra-base hits since returning, giving a boost to an offense that was the highest-scoring in baseball in the first half. San Diego starter Casey Mize is not a pitcher I want to back as a 67% favorite. He's struggled since coming over from Detroit, owning a 6.67 ERA with eight homers allowed over 27 innings. His strikeouts are way down, and he's allowed five homers with just five strikeouts over his last three starts. His 6.05 xFIP is the worst of any San Diego pitcher in the second half with at least 20 innings. The Nationals are going with a questionable opener, but every other arm is basically available. With the market giving them just a 37% chance to win, THE BAT's 42% fair price gives us enough value to take a shot on the Nats.

Teoscar Hernández is in a strong spot to go deep against Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo. Hernández has been crushing the ball lately, posting a .649 SLG, .719 xSLG and .244 ISO over his last 10 games, while generating a 64%+ hard-hit rate and 18% barrel rate. He’ll face Lodolo, who has struggled against right-handed hitters recently. The last 60 righties he has faced own a .350 xBA, .640 xSLG and .400 xwOBA, while Lodolo is allowing a 53.5% hard-hit rate, 16.3% barrel rate and 27.9% ground-ball rate. Don’t let Hernández’s home run last night scare you away from this prop.