San Francisco @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.240) may lead us to conclude that Nick Ahmed has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .222 actual batting average. Nick Ahmed ranks in the 79th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (46.3% rate since the start of last season).

Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Batting from the opposite that Logan Webb throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an advantage today. Kyle Schwarber will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Since the start of last season, Kyle Schwarber's 16.3% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 97th percentile among his peers.

Wilmer Flores is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. Wilmer Flores pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Wilmer Flores's 21.6° launch angle (an advanced standard to measure a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the steepest in Major League Baseball: 98th percentile. Checking in at the 86th percentile, Wilmer Flores has posted a .353 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season. Sporting a 1.44 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Wilmer Flores has demonstrated good plate discipline, grading out in the 93rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Matt Chapman is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Matt Chapman has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .275 mark is considerably lower than his .310 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Since the start of last season, Matt Chapman's 17.4% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 99th percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Johan Rojas in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Johan Rojas will hold that advantage today. Johan Rojas's speed has increased this year. His 29.35 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 30.03 ft/sec now. Johan Rojas has recorded a .353 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Alec Bohm is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Alec Bohm will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. In the past 14 days, Alec Bohm has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .429.

Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Hitting from the opposite that Taijuan Walker throws from, Mike Yastrzemski will have an edge in today's game. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Mike Yastrzemski ranks in the 94th percentile with a 19.7° launch angle, which is one of the most flyball-inducing angles in MLB.

Thairo Estrada's batting average talent is projected to be in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Thairo Estrada pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Thairo Estrada has had some very good luck this year. His .295 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .267. Thairo Estrada grades out in the 80th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (46% rate since the start of last season). Posting a .319 BABIP since the start of last season, Thairo Estrada is ranked in the 79th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects LaMonte Wade Jr. in the 11th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. LaMonte Wade Jr. has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 49% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year. The #6 field in the league for suppressing batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects the 3rd-best pitching conditions of all games on the slate.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 10th-best batter in Major League Baseball. Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Batting from the opposite that Logan Webb throws from, Bryce Harper will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Bryce Harper will hold that advantage in today's game.

Edmundo Sosa pulls many of his flyballs (34.7% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Edmundo Sosa will hold that advantage in today's game. Ranking in the 94th percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.25 ft/sec since the start of last season, Edmundo Sosa is quite quick.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jorge Soler ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jorge Soler is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Jorge Soler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Soler has experienced some positive variance this year. His .303 rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .298.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Conforto in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Michael Conforto is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Batting from the opposite that Taijuan Walker throws from, Michael Conforto will have the upper hand in today's game. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Michael Conforto has had some very poor luck this year. His .308 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .407.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 5th-best hitter in baseball when estimating his BABIP ability. Brandon Marsh is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Brandon Marsh will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Webb today. Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Brandon Marsh will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Webb throws from, Bryson Stott will have the upper hand in today's game. Bryson Stott has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Bryson Stott will hold that advantage in today's game. Bryson Stott has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .275 rate is a good deal lower than his .301 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 87th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Nick Castellanos will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Despite posting a .222 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nick Castellanos has suffered from bad luck given the .096 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .318. Nick Castellanos is in the 88th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (47.3% rate since the start of last season).

When assessing his overall offensive talent, J.T. Realmuto ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). J.T. Realmuto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. J.T. Realmuto will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. J.T. Realmuto's 11.2% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power) is in the 76th percentile since the start of last season.