Cubs vs Giants Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game
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James Wood is in a premium matchup against Seattle starter Emerson Hancock. Wood owns a 100th percentile .627 xSLG and elite 25.4% Barrel rate, while Hancock's fastball-heavy approach plays directly into Wood's strengths. With Hancock allowing plenty of hard contact, Wood is a strong bet to +100.
Okamoto has gone back-to-back games with a home run and he profiles well against Warren to go yard against. He leads the Jays with 15 homers this season and hits Warren's pitch mix well with a .500 slug-rate and a 58% hard-hit rate. This positions him well for success today as the Yankee starter pitches to contact, while ranking in the 43rd percentile in hard-hit rate.
Ernie Clement has a hit in 22 of his last 25 games, posting a .964 OPS in that stretch, averaging 2.3 bases per game. He is a premier contact hitter, and Warren is a contact-friendly pitcher.
For the last leg of the SGP, I’ll bet on Alejandro Kirk to keep swinging his hot bat. He draws back into the lineup after a 3-for-3 outing in his return on Friday. He’s one of the best contact hitters in baseball with a .306 xBA.
Atlanta has a wOBA of .330 and is barreling up 9.5% of their batted balls, which will play well on a hot day in New York. Peralta has been particularly poor as of late, throwing to an ERA of 5.65 over his last five starts. I'm backing the Over as long as it stays at 8.5 runs or less.
Bryce Elder’s analytics look as good as any pitcher in the majors this year, rating in the 99th percentile for pitching run value. He’s been especially good at preventing hitters from getting all of his pitches, allowing barrels on just 3.7% of batted balls. I see Atlanta as the favorite here and would bet them at -120 or better.
Arizona is hitting a miserable 58 wRC+ with a dead-last .296 slugging percentage. Both teams possess shaky relievers with over a 4.45 SIERA, but Andrew Abbott should completely mute this ice-cold offense early. The market is drastically overvaluing the slumping Diamondbacks at a pick'em price.
Yordan Alvarez gets a favorable matchup against Royals right-hander Stephen Kolek. Alvarez owns a .744 xSLG, 94.9 MPH average exit velocity, and 19.1% Barrel rate, while Kolek's fastball-sinker mix plays directly into his strengths. With a low 17.4% strikeout rate, Kolek allows plenty of contact, making Alvarez a strong bet to -105.
Emmett Sheehan was pulled after just 1 1/3 innings in his last start against the Angels after allowing three hits, two earned runs, and two walks in a 13-5 drubbing.
That’s the third time in the last seven Sheehan starts that’s ended with more than nine runs scored between opponents, and the sixth time overall. That should help a White Sox offense that already scores the eighth-most runs in the league at 4.83 per game.
Erick Fedde’s cutter has been hit out of the yard six times this season, and that’s a pitch Shohei Ohtani loves to see. The reigning NL MVP is batting .412 against that pitch with a .765 SLG.
Chicago’s bullpen has also been brutal, allowing 38 homers (7th most).
Excluding Top-10 offenses in OBP vs. left-handed pitching, Sanchez has allowed three runs over seven starts while pitching an average of 7.2 innings.
The story is nearly identical for Kyle Harrison. Take out Top-10 opponents in OPS vs. lefties and he has conceded just five runs over eight starts.
Runs will be hard to come by. Play the Under to -110.
Athletics Starter Jeffrey Springs has surrendered 16 homers, tied for sixth most in the majors, with nine of those against breaking pitches.
Springs’ slider is his second-most common pitch, and Hunter Goodman has hit the slider out of the park more than anyone else this season (8 HR).
The Giants start their ace on Sunday in Logan Webb. He’s been dependable and effective for years, but since returning from the injured list at the end of May, he seems to have found another level.
In his three starts since returning, he’s allowed two runs and nine hits in 19 1/3 innings. He’s avoiding barrels, inducing grounders, and his barrel rate is down two percentage points from last year. He’s also in the 96th percentile in ground-ball rate.
The Cubs have been scoring, but against Webb and without Suzuki, that could change. Getting plus-money odds with Webb is a no-brainer. I’d stay Under until -110.
The San Francisco Giants have scored just one run in each of the last two games, but the offense could get an assist from this Chicago Cubs pitching rotation today.
Chicago is expected to start opener Ryan Rolison, then follow with Colin Rea. Rolison walks 4.5 batters per nine innings and has a FIP two runs higher than his ERA, while Rea has a 5.19 ERA. This Cubs offense also may be down a man after Seiya Suzuki left Saturday’s game with an injury.
Jonathan Aranda is in a favorable spot against Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez owns an 8.10 ERA and 6.66 xERA, while opponents are slugging .596 against his four-seam fastball, which he throws more than half the time. Aranda has historically crushed four-seamers (.353 AVG, .569 SLG) and brings a strong power profile into this matchup, including a .372 xwOBA, .473 xSLG, and 11.7% Barrel rate. With the wind blowing out to center field, Aranda is a strong play to clear 1.5 total bases at plus money.
I’m taking the Under because Nathan Eovaldi’s top 20 percentile chase and whiff rate create a run-prevention path, and the market is pricing up two offenses with modest scoring baselines. Early’s contact quality is the concern, but Texas can do damage and still keep this Under if Eovaldi controls Boston’s chase-heavy approach.
I’m a Connelly Early fan longterm but he’s young, raw and has work to do. His contact profile for this matchup isn’t an ideal one. He’s yielded a barrel rate of 11%+ along with a hard-hit rate in the bottom 20 percentile. This Rangers lineup can be erratic but one thing it has is plenty of power with six in the lineup today with a hard-hit rate over 40%. Give me Texas for a two unit play.
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
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