MLB Picks

Okamoto has gone back-to-back games with a home run and he profiles well against Warren to go yard against. He leads the Jays with 15 homers this season and hits Warren's pitch mix well with a .500 slug-rate and a 58% hard-hit rate. This positions him well for success today as the Yankee starter pitches to contact, while ranking in the 43rd percentile in hard-hit rate.

Yordan Alvarez gets a favorable matchup against Royals right-hander Stephen Kolek. Alvarez owns a .744 xSLG, 94.9 MPH average exit velocity, and 19.1% Barrel rate, while Kolek's fastball-sinker mix plays directly into his strengths. With a low 17.4% strikeout rate, Kolek allows plenty of contact, making Alvarez a strong bet to -105.

Emmett Sheehan was pulled after just 1 1/3 innings in his last start against the Angels after allowing three hits, two earned runs, and two walks in a 13-5 drubbing.

That’s the third time in the last seven Sheehan starts that’s ended with more than nine runs scored between opponents, and the sixth time overall. That should help a White Sox offense that already scores the eighth-most runs in the league at 4.83 per game. 

Excluding Top-10 offenses in OBP vs. left-handed pitching, Sanchez has allowed three runs over seven starts while pitching an average of 7.2 innings.

The story is nearly identical for Kyle Harrison. Take out Top-10 opponents in OPS vs. lefties and he has conceded just five runs over eight starts.

Runs will be hard to come by. Play the Under to -110.

The Giants start their ace on Sunday in Logan Webb. He’s been dependable and effective for years, but since returning from the injured list at the end of May, he seems to have found another level.

In his three starts since returning, he’s allowed two runs and nine hits in 19 1/3 innings. He’s avoiding barrels, inducing grounders, and his barrel rate is down two percentage points from last year. He’s also in the 96th percentile in ground-ball rate.

The Cubs have been scoring, but against Webb and without Suzuki, that could change. Getting plus-money odds with Webb is a no-brainer. I’d stay Under until -110.

Jonathan Aranda is in a favorable spot against Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez owns an 8.10 ERA and 6.66 xERA, while opponents are slugging .596 against his four-seam fastball, which he throws more than half the time. Aranda has historically crushed four-seamers (.353 AVG, .569 SLG) and brings a strong power profile into this matchup, including a .372 xwOBA, .473 xSLG, and 11.7% Barrel rate. With the wind blowing out to center field, Aranda is a strong play to clear 1.5 total bases at plus money.

I’m taking the Under because Nathan Eovaldi’s top 20 percentile chase and whiff rate create a run-prevention path, and the market is pricing up two offenses with modest scoring baselines. Early’s contact quality is the concern, but Texas can do damage and still keep this Under if Eovaldi controls Boston’s chase-heavy approach.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.