Atlanta @ New York Picks & Props

Batting from the opposite that Bryce Elder throws from, Omar Narvaez will have the upper hand in today's game. Omar Narvaez hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Omar Narvaez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryce Elder. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Omar Narvaez will hold that advantage today. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Omar Narvaez has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .247 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .305.

Orlando Arcia pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.354) may lead us to conclude that Orlando Arcia has had some very poor luck this year with his .307 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Batting from the opposite that Luis Severino throws from, Michael Harris II will have the upper hand in today's game. Michael Harris II has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP. Michael Harris II hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's shallowest CF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Batting from the opposite that Bryce Elder throws from, Jeff McNeil will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jeff McNeil hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jeff McNeil will hold that advantage today. By putting up a 1.54 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Jeff McNeil has displayed favorable plate discipline, ranking in the 90th percentile.

Harrison Bader hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Harrison Bader will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Ozzie Albies is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams playing today. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Ozzie Albies has been very fortunate this year. His .341 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .325.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Starling Marte in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Starling Marte is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Starling Marte will hold that advantage today. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Starling Marte has suffered from bad luck this year. His .296 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .424.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brett Baty in the 77th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Batting from the opposite that Bryce Elder throws from, Brett Baty will have an edge in today's matchup. Brett Baty has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Brett Baty will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.260) may lead us to conclude that Brett Baty has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .220 actual batting average.

Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Travis d'Arnaud has been hot in recent games, hitting his way to a .369 wOBA in the past two weeks' worth of games. Travis d'Arnaud's 90.6-mph average exit velocity ranks among the best in the league since the start of last season: 76th percentile. Travis d'Arnaud ranks in the 81st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (17.9% rate since the start of last season).

When assessing his overall offensive talent, J.D. Martinez ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). J.D. Martinez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. J.D. Martinez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. In notching a .270 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , J.D. Martinez has performed in the 76th percentile.

Austin Riley projects as the 16th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Austin Riley is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. Austin Riley hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams playing today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Austin Riley's true offensive ability to be a .358, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .049 difference between that figure and his actual .309 wOBA.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 18th-best hitter in the game. Pete Alonso is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Pete Alonso pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Pete Alonso will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. By putting up a .343 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Pete Alonso is positioned in the 76th percentile for offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citi Field as the worst stadium in baseball for right-handed batting average. Citi Field's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to worse offense. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to drop to the lowest level of all games on the slate today at 53°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts). Luis Severino will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ronald Acuna Jr. in today's matchup. Ronald Acuna Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Marcell Ozuna pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Marcell Ozuna's 16.5% Barrel% (a reliable standard to evaluate power) grades out in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarred Kelenic in the 85th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Jarred Kelenic will have the handedness advantage over Luis Severino in today's matchup. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarred Kelenic has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.9% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's shallowest CF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

Matt Olson projects as the 14th-best batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Matt Olson is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Hitting from the opposite that Luis Severino throws from, Matt Olson will have an edge in today's game. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

D.J. Stewart is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. D.J. Stewart will have the handedness advantage over Bryce Elder today. D.J. Stewart will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. D.J. Stewart's 12.5% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) ranks in the 86th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Francisco Lindor will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Francisco Lindor's true offensive skill to be a .338, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .049 difference between that mark and his actual .289 wOBA.