Washington @ Chicago Picks & Props

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for dingers. Hitting from the same side that Mitchell Parker throws from, Braden Shewmake meets a tough challenge in today's game. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Braden Shewmake can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Braden Shewmake will hold that advantage today.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for dingers. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Korey Lee will hold that advantage in today's game.

Riley Adams has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences today. Riley Adams can really hit the cover off the ball. If you were to look at the top 5% of his batted balls by exit velocity, their average (109.8 mph) rate him as one of MLB's best: in the 87th percentile since the start of last season. Riley Adams grades out in the 85th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (19.2% rate since the start of last season). Riley Adams has posted a .328 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, grading out in the 75th percentile. Riley Adams has posted a .352 BABIP since the start of last season, checking in at the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Jacob Young is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Jacob Young has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.285) provides evidence that Jacob Young has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .263 actual batting average. Jacob Young has notched a .267 batting average since the start of last season, checking in at the 82nd percentile.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the same side that Mitchell Parker throws from, Gavin Sheets will have a tough matchup in today's matchup. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Gavin Sheets has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Gavin Sheets pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Gavin Sheets will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Eddie Rosario has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (92% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for dingers. Batting from the opposite that Chris Flexen throws from, Eddie Rosario will have an edge in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.345) implies that Eddie Rosario has been unlucky this year with his .246 actual wOBA. Eddie Rosario and his 18.6° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 96th percentile, among the highest in MLB since the start of last season.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for dingers.

LaVictor Lipscomb has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report projects the 3rd-lowest temperature of all games today at 57°. Hitting from the opposite that Mitchell Parker throws from, Eloy Jimenez will have an edge in today's game. Out of every team today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Washington Nationals. This year, there has been a decline in Eloy Jimenez's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.52 ft/sec last year to 25.13 ft/sec currently. Eloy Jimenez ranks in the 3rd percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (10.1% rate since the start of last season).

CJ Abrams's batting average skill is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). CJ Abrams is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Chris Flexen throws from, CJ Abrams will have an edge today. CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. CJ Abrams has recorded a .361 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Pham in the 82nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Tommy Pham is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for dingers. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Tommy Pham will hold that advantage in today's game. Tommy Pham has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .260 mark is a fair amount lower than his .294 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Andrew Vaughn's batting average talent is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Andrew Vaughn has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Andrew Vaughn will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Andrew Vaughn's speed has gotten better this season. His 25.53 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.26 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Andrew Benintendi is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. Hitting from the same side that Mitchell Parker throws from, Andrew Benintendi encounters a tough challenge today. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Andrew Benintendi stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Andrew Benintendi has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Meneses in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Joey Meneses is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. Joey Meneses has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Joey Meneses has been unlucky this year, posting a .252 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .300 — a .048 difference. Posting a .318 BABIP since the start of last season, Joey Meneses grades out in the 78th percentile.

Victor Robles pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Using Statcast metrics, Victor Robles grades out in the 82nd percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .268.

Mitchell Parker will hold the platoon advantage against Nicky Lopez in today's game. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nicky Lopez has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Nicky Lopez has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Nicky Lopez will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.248) suggests that Nicky Lopez has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .222 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Luis Garcia is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Chris Flexen throws from, Luis Garcia will have an edge today. Luis Garcia has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Luis Garcia has been hot in recent games, putting up a .359 wOBA over the last 14 days.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for dingers. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Bryan Ramos will hold that advantage in today's game. Bryan Ramos is remarkably fast, grading out in the 88th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.7 ft/sec this year.

The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Chris Flexen. Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Keibert Ruiz's true offensive talent to be a .301, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .115 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .186 wOBA. Keibert Ruiz ranks in the 75th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (45.3% rate since the start of last season).

Paul DeJong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Paul DeJong will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Paul DeJong's 16.9° launch angle (a reliable metric to assess a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in baseball: 84th percentile.

Martin Maldonado has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Zach Remillard has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Jesse Winker has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Rafael Ortega has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Ildemaro Vargas has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.