Boston @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Tropicana Field has the shallowest RF fences in MLB. Reese McGuire will have the handedness advantage over Taj Bradley today. With a .348 BABIP since the start of last season, Reese McGuire is positioned in the 89th percentile.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (44.3% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like Isaac Paredes usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Houck. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today's game. Isaac Paredes's 22.1° launch angle (an advanced standard to assess a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in the majors: 99th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. The 5th-shallowest LF dimensions in the league are found in Tropicana Field. Since the start of last season, Tyler O'Neill's 12.5% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 86th percentile among his peers. Tyler O'Neill has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 16.7° figure is among the highest in MLB since the start of last season (78th percentile).

Connor Wong's BABIP skill is projected in the 76th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Connor Wong is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. The 5th-shallowest LF dimensions in the league are found in Tropicana Field. In the past two weeks, Connor Wong has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .391. Connor Wong's maximum exit velocity (an advanced stat to assess power) has been 113.6 mph since the start of last season, placing in the 79th percentile.

Ben Rortvedt will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Houck today... and the cherry on top, Houck has a large platoon split. Ben Rortvedt will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Sporting a 1.73 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Ben Rortvedt has displayed favorable plate discipline, grading out in the 87th percentile.

Richie Palacios will have the handedness advantage against Tanner Houck in today's matchup... and moreover, Houck has a large platoon split. Richie Palacios pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Richie Palacios will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Sporting a .340 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Richie Palacios grades out in the 84th percentile. Richie Palacios has notched a .267 batting average since the start of last season, ranking in the 83rd percentile.

Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Caballero will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Jose Caballero ranks in the 93rd percentile with a 20.9° launch angle, which is among the steepest angles in Major League Baseball. Ranking in the 77th percentile, Jose Caballero sports a .317 BABIP since the start of last season.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Because of Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Brandon Lowe will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage in today's game.

Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. Tropicana Field has the shallowest RF fences in MLB. Jonathan Aranda will have the handedness advantage against Tanner Houck today... and moreover, Houck has a large platoon split. Jonathan Aranda will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the worst venue in MLB for RHB BABIP. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 6th-best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Tanner Houck will have the handedness advantage against Yandy Diaz in today's matchup... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Houck's large platoon split. Extreme groundball bats like Yandy Diaz generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck. Yandy Diaz's speed has declined this year. His 26.61 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.03 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 78th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Ceddanne Rafaela has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela has been unlucky this year, compiling a .242 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .287 — a .045 difference. Ceddanne Rafaela is very athletic, ranking in the 91st percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.97 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Garrett Cooper in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Garrett Cooper has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.268) suggests that Garrett Cooper has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .251 actual batting average. Since the start of last season, Garrett Cooper's flyball exit velocity (an advanced standard to measure power) is in the 75th percentile at 94.1 mph. Garrett Cooper grades out in the 98th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (50.7% rate since the start of last season).

Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, David Hamilton will have the upper hand in today's matchup. David Hamilton has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vaughn Grissom in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Vaughn Grissom has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Vaughn Grissom has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .220 figure is a fair amount lower than his .276 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Dominic Smith will have the upper hand in today's game. Dominic Smith has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Dominic Smith has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .299 mark is deflated compared to his .316 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Dominic Smith has done a strong job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 15.9° figure is among the highest in the game since the start of last season (85th percentile).

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Despite posting a .255 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Randy Arozarena has had bad variance on his side given the .082 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .337.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best batter in baseball. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Tropicana Field has the shallowest RF fences in MLB. Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Using Statcast metrics, Rafael Devers grades out in the 85th percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .354.

Jarren Duran's BABIP ability is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Jarren Duran will have an edge in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Posting a .346 BABIP this year, Jarren Duran has performed in the 87th percentile.

Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Tropicana Field has the shallowest RF fences in MLB. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage over Taj Bradley today. Wilyer Abreu has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season's 26.74 ft/sec to 27.34 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Ranked in the 86th percentile, Wilyer Abreu has one of the highest average exit velocities in MLB since the start of last season (91.2-mph).

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.