MLB Picks

Robert Gasser has a sterling .186 xBA and holds the opposition to a 29.0% hard-hit rate. Combine that with Bryce Elder’s ability to avoid hard contact, and we could be in for a well-pitched game despite the quality of these offenses. The first two games of this series ended with totals of seven runs or less, and I like the Under again in today’s game as long as the total stays at 8.5.

James Wood ranks among the top percentile in the majors in xSLG, average exit velocity, and barrel %, so it’s no surprise how often he’s going yard. Rays starter Nick Martinez has given up 1.7 HR/9 over his last three appearances, while the team’s bullpen has allowed 47 dingers – second most among all clubs.

Bazzana is red-hot, hitting .375 over his last seven games while carrying a strong .845 OPS on the season. He has also excelled against right-handed pitching, batting .327. Teng is a favorable target, carrying a -6 Run Value on his fastball while allowing lefties to slug .592 against his changeup.  With a disciplined 22.2% chase rate, Bazzana should force Teng into the zone and get pitches he can drive for extra bases to +100. 

Brandon Lowe has already launched 18 home runs while posting an .842 OPS this season, and his underlying metrics remain strong, ranking in the 79th percentile in Barrel Rate and the 83rd percentile in expected slugging percentage. Michael Lorenzen has struggled badly in 2026, carrying a 7.13 ERA and 5.60 xERA while allowing opponents to post a .478 expected slugging percentage.  His four-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter all carry negative Run Values, giving a power hitter like Lowe multiple pitches he can punish.

Brandon Young carries a 4.32 xERA with a modest 16.6% strikeout rate, while opponents are batting .389 and slugging .528 against his sinker. Freeman has crushed sinkers this season, boasting a .340 wOBA with a .404 slugging percentage and a +9 Run Value against four-seamers, making him a strong candidate to cash this total bases prop to -110. 

The New York Mets rank 29th in OBP and tied for 23rd in runs per game. It'll be tough sledding against Zack Wheeler.

The Philadelphia Phillies have struggled with lefties for much of the year, hitting just .223 and ranking 23rd in wOBA.

The Mets also have a very rested bullpen behind David Peterson so they’ll be well-equipped to put out fires as they arise.

Play to -115.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.