Detroit @ Boston props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Dry weather has a small but significant correlation with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-driest conditions of the day at 34%. Given Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Gio Urshela will be at a big disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate today. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gio Urshela in today's game. This year, there has been a decline in Gio Urshela's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.18 ft/sec last year to 25.36 ft/sec currently.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Dry weather has a small but significant correlation with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-driest conditions of the day at 34%. Jarren Duran's 5.3% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) is in the 23rd percentile since the start of last season. Jarren Duran's 90.3-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced stat to measure power) is in the 20th percentile since the start of last season. Jarren Duran ranks in the 7th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (11.7% rate since the start of last season).

When it comes to his BABIP talent, Riley Greene is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Riley Greene is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Because of Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Riley Greene will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Riley Greene has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Wenceel Perez is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Wenceel Perez pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Ranking in the 81st percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.36 ft/sec this year, Wenceel Perez is very quick.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Kenta Maeda throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage in today's game. Rafael Devers hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Colt Keith's batting average ability is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Colt Keith has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In MLB, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 3rd-shallowest. Colt Keith will hold the platoon advantage over Tanner Houck in today's matchup... and moreover, Houck has a large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the majors for right-handed batting average. Ceddanne Rafaela has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers. Ceddanne Rafaela will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Vierling in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Matt Vierling is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the majors for right-handed batting average. Matt Vierling has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Matt Vierling has notched a .274 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, placing in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the majors for right-handed batting average. Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball bats like Spencer Torkelson tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Spencer Torkelson's true offensive ability to be a .324, implying that he has been unlucky this year given the .056 difference between that mark and his actual .268 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 75th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Connor Wong is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the majors for right-handed batting average. The shallowest LF dimensions in MLB are found in Fenway Park. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Mark Canha ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Mark Canha is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the majors for right-handed batting average. The shallowest LF dimensions in MLB are found in Fenway Park. Mark Canha has exhibited strong plate discipline this year, grading out in the 76th percentile with a 1.88 K/BB rate.

Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In MLB, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 3rd-shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Kenta Maeda throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge in today's matchup. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.

Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Zach McKinstry will hold the platoon advantage against Tanner Houck in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Houck has a large platoon split. Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Zach McKinstry has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .224 BA is a fair amount lower than his .260 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Zach McKinstry ranks in the 88th percentile with a 17.7° launch angle, which is among the highest angles in baseball.

Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Kenta Maeda throws from, Dominic Smith will have an edge in today's game. Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Dominic Smith will hold that advantage in today's game.

Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Given Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Akil Baddoo will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Akil Baddoo has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Akil Baddoo is notably quick, grading out in the 91st percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.02 ft/sec since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the majors for right-handed batting average. Andy Ibanez hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Andy Ibanez is in the 81st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (17.9% rate since the start of last season). Grading out in the 89th percentile of THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season, Andy Ibanez demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields - a core talent for achieving a high batting average. Andy Ibanez has posted a .266 batting average since the start of last season, ranking in the 79th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the majors for right-handed batting average. The shallowest LF dimensions in MLB are found in Fenway Park. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vaughn Grissom in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the majors for right-handed batting average. Vaughn Grissom has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers. Vaughn Grissom will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Kenta Maeda throws from, David Hamilton will have an edge today. David Hamilton has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers. David Hamilton will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the majors for right-handed batting average. Carson Kelly hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the majors for right-handed batting average. Javier Baez pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. As it relates to his batting average, Javier Baez has had bad variance on his side this year. His .194 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .284.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the majors for right-handed batting average. Jake Rogers pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Jake Rogers tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck. Jake Rogers's 12% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) is in the 81st percentile since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, Jake Rogers's flyball exit velocity (an advanced stat to measure power) is in the 92nd percentile at 95.5 mph.