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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 5, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.99 |
+163 
|
o7.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -132
|
|
5.18 |
-177 
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +120 
|
San Francisco
- Over is 3-0-2 in Giants last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Giants last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Giants last 4 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Thorntons last 4 starts as a home underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+206)
o0.5+206
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.79 |
-130 
|
o8.0 -115 
|
-1.5 +135 
|
|
4.35 |
+120
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -150 
|
Chi. Cubs
- Cubs are 5-0 in Assads last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Cubs are 5-0 in Assads last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Assads last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 6-0 in Assads last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.63 |
+143
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -155
|
|
5.25 |
-153
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +135
|
Atlanta
- Under is 4-0-1 in Braves last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Philadelphia
- Over is 5-0-1 in Phillies last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Phillies last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Wheelers last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.78 |
+143
|
o7.0 -115
|
+1.5 -160
|
|
3.89 |
-153
|
u7.5 -124
|
-1.5 +140
|
Detroit
- Under is 7-0 in Tigers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Valdezs last 5 road starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Valdezs last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Valdezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Cleveland
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
Top Projection
Dillon Dingler o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+243
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.71 |
-143
|
o9.0 -124
|
-1.5 +112
|
|
4.95 |
+147
|
u9.5 -120
|
+1.5 -115
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 road games.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
Cincinnati
- Over is 6-0 in Reds last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Elly De La Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+208)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.84 |
+170
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -132
|
|
4.67 |
-170
|
u8.0 -118
|
-1.5 +125
|
LA Angels
- Under is 7-0 in Angels last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Angels last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Kikuchis last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 road games.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Pirates last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Ashcrafts last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.27 |
-140
|
o8.0 -114
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
4.36 |
+130
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -140
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 9-0 in Grays last 9 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Grays last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Grays last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 9-1 in Bassitts last 10 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Adley Rutschman o0.5 Total RBIs (+204)
o0.5+204
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.79 |
-105
|
o6.5 -125
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
4.02 |
-105
|
u7.5 -157
|
+1.5 -190
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Rangers last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Wyatt Langford o0.5 Total RBIs (+270)
o0.5+270
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.55 |
-105
|
o9.5 -110
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
5.67 |
-105
|
u9.5 -105
|
+1.5 -170
|
Toronto
- Over is 4-0-1 in Scherzers last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Scherzers last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Lugos last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Lugos last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.70 |
+106
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -196
|
|
4.52 |
-115
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +170
|
Minnesota
- Twins are 4-0 in Bradleys last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Kays last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total RBIs (+197)
o0.5+197
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
+100
|
o7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
4.26 |
-105
|
u8.0 -118
|
+1.5 -189
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rodons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Yankees are 7-1 in Rodons last 8 starts as a road favorite.
San Diego
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Freddy Fermin o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1400)
o0.5+1400
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.83 |
-105
|
o5.5 -481
|
-1.5 +151
|
|
4.50 |
-105
|
u8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -166
|
Arizona
- Over is 6-0 in Diamondbacks last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Pfaadts last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Pfaadts last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-0 in Diamondbacks last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Houston
- Under is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+120)
o1.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.62 |
-120
|
o10.5 -118
|
-1.5 +126
|
|
5.45 |
+110
|
u11.0 -115
|
+1.5 -145
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Colorado
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Top Projection
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (-115)
o1.5-110
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.85 |
+196
|
o7.5 -112
|
+2.0 -159
|
|
5.04 |
-216
|
u8.0 -120
|
-2.0 +130
|
Washington
- Under is 5-0-1 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a road underdog.
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 5-0 in Cavallis last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 5-0 in Cavallis last 5 starts on grass.
LA Dodgers
- Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 games as an underdog.
- Dodgers are 8-1 in Glasnows last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Dodgers last 7 during game 2 of a series.
- Dodgers are 7-1 in Glasnows last 8 starts as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.53 |
+215
|
o7.5 -122
|
+2.0 -126
|
|
4.61 |
-245
|
u8.0 -115
|
-2.0 -103
|
Athletics
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 road games.
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 games as a road underdog.
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Kirbys last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
- Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 games on grass.
Top Projection
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total Home Runs (+950)
o0.5+950
SF
@
NYM
Sat, Sep 5 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Marcus Semien o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This contest is projected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Marcus Semien pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.1% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.. Marcus Semien will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.. Marcus Semien's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, rising from 16.3% on the season to 30.8% in the last week's worth of games.
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. This contest is projected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Francisco Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's shallowest CF fences today.. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.. Francisco Alvarez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.
CHC
@
MIA
Sat, Sep 5 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Otto Lopez o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average talent, Otto Lopez is projected as the 9th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Otto Lopez is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Otto Lopez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Otto Lopez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.. Otto Lopez has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 95.7-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal average of 91.4-mph.
Total Home Runs
Carson Kelly o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1200)
Projection 0.09
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Kelly in the 76th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. LoanDepot Park has the 6th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB.. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.7°, Carson Kelly has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 30.4° mark over the past 7 days.. Carson Kelly has put up a .340 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 77th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Carson Kelly has displayed impressive plate discipline this year, ranking in the 81st percentile with a 1.66 K/BB rate.
ATL
@
PHI
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
Projection 0.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Mike Yastrzemski ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #9 park in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Mike Yastrzemski will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's matchup... and moreover, Wheeler has a large platoon split.
Total Bases
Ozzie Albies o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Ozzie Albies is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #9 park in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Over the last 7 days, Ozzie Albies's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.4-mph over the course of the season to 92.7-mph of late.
DET
@
CLE
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Dillon Dingler o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dillon Dingler in the 76th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Dillon Dingler is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Progressive Field ranks as the #2 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all parks are found in Progressive Field.. Dillon Dingler will hold the platoon advantage against Parker Messick today.
Total RBIs
Kevin McGonigle o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
Projection 0.4
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Kevin McGonigle ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Kevin McGonigle is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.. The #2 field in the league for boosting base hits to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to better offense.. Kevin McGonigle has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
MIL
@
CIN
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
William Contreras o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. William Contreras is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 4th-best park in the majors for right-handed home runs.. This matchup is projected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hitters.
Total Bases
Jackson Chourio o1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Projection 2.28
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his batting average skill, Jackson Chourio is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jackson Chourio is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 4th-best park in the majors for right-handed home runs.. This matchup is projected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hitters.
LAA
@
PIT
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 6th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #3 venue in the game for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. High humidity has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest humidity of all games on the slate at 77%.. In the last week, Mike Trout's 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.2%.
Total RBIs
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 6th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #3 venue in the game for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. High humidity has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest humidity of all games on the slate at 77%.. In the last week, Mike Trout's 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.2%.
BOS
@
BAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Mickey Gasper o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Mickey Gasper ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Mickey Gasper is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's RF dimensions are the shallowest.. The switch-hitting Mickey Gasper will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Chris Bassitt... and even better, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Mickey Gasper has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 10.3% seasonal rate to 23.8% in the past two weeks.
Total Bases
Caleb Durbin o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.35
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
TB
@
TEX
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:05 PM ET
Moneyline
TEX (-103)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Texas is swinging the bats at an elite level, ranking second in MLB with a 124 wRC+ over the last fortnight. Jacob deGrom at home as a plus-money underdog against a flat Tampa Bay offense (84 wRC+) is the clearest form-versus-price discrepancy on the entire Saturday slate.
Total Bases
Cedric Mullins o1.5 Total Bases (+255)
Projection 1.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Jacob deGrom throws from, Cedric Mullins will have an edge in today's matchup.. Cedric Mullins's launch angle this season (26.3°) is considerably higher than his 23.3° mark last season.. In the last week, Cedric Mullins's 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.5%.. Despite posting a .284 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Cedric Mullins has suffered from bad luck given the .026 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .310.
TOR
@
KC
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Isaac Collins u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Isaac Collins is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today's game.. Kauffman Stadium has the deepest right field dimensions among all stadiums.. Isaac Collins has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past two weeks' worth of games.. Isaac Collins's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased lately; his 87.2-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 76.9-mph in the last week's worth of games.. In the past week's worth of games, Isaac Collins's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.2%.
Total Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Projection 2.04
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 3rd-best batter in Major League Baseball when assessing his batting average ability.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #6 stadium in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast predicts the most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
MIN
@
CHW
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Munetaka Murakami projects as the 2nd-best home run hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Munetaka Murakami is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #6 park in the league for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest fences in Major League Baseball — generally good for home runs.. This game is predicted to have the most humidity on the slate today (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.
Total RBIs
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best venue in baseball for boosting offensive stats to righties.. This game is predicted to have the most humidity on the slate today (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Miguel Vargas pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.5% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.
NYY
@
SD
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:15 PM ET
Moneyline
NYY (-105)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Carlos Rodón and Robbie Ray should duel, but New York holds the offensive edge. The Yankees boast a 112 wRC+ over the last 14 days, compared to San Diego’s sluggish 91 wRC+. With pricing set essentially at pick'em, back the lineup producing extra-base hits at a higher rate.
Total RBIs
Freddy Fermin o0.5 Total RBIs (+312)
Projection 0.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Freddy Fermin will have the upper hand in today's game.. Freddy Fermin hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Freddy Fermin will hold that advantage in today's game.. Freddy Fermin's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 10.8% to 16.6%.
AZ
@
HOU
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:15 PM ET
Moneyline
HOU (-105)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
At near pick'em odds, Houston has the decisive bullpen advantage. Houston relievers have dominated with a 3.02 FIP and 3.55 SIERA over the last two weeks. Arizona’s offense is sputtering down at an 84 wRC+, making Ethan Pecko and the Astros' superior bullpen the correct side tonight.
Total RBIs
Tim Tawa o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
Projection 0.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In the past week's worth of games, Tim Tawa's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.7% up to 27.3%.. Tim Tawa's launch angle this year (12°) is quite a bit higher than his 7.5° angle last year.. Compared to his seasonal average of 12°, Tim Tawa has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 21.8° angle over the last 14 days.
STL
@
COL
Sat, Sep 5 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Projection 2.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jordan Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best venue in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the league, which often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate today.
Total Bases
Ivan Herrera o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.05
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best venue in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the league, which often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate today.
WAS
@
LAD
Sat, Sep 5 • 9:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. Dodger Stadium profiles as the #1 ballpark in the game for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dodger Stadium has the 9th-shallowest CF dimensions among all stadiums.. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.
Total Hits
Max Muncy u0.5 Total Hits (+135)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #10 venue in Major League Baseball for suppressing base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-deepest RF fences today.. Max Muncy has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 13.2% seasonal rate has fallen to 4.8% over the last two weeks.. Max Muncy's exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 96.2-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 93-mph in the last 7 days.. Max Muncy has been lucky this year, compiling a .357 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .018 difference.
ATH
@
SEA
Sat, Sep 5 • 9:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
George Kirby o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+116)
Projection 6.05
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
George Kirby has averaged 92.8 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 81st percentile.. The Athletics have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Henry Bolte, Max Muncy, Zack Gelof).. Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as a good pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the 2nd-best park in MLB for strikeouts.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.
Total Hits
Cal Raleigh u0.5 Total Hits (+130)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cal Raleigh in the 1st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Cal Raleigh is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the worst ballpark in baseball for RHB batting average.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
