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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 27, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.65 |
-109 
|
o8.0 -118 
|
-1.5 +155 
|
|
4.17 |
-104 
|
u8.5 -115 
|
+1.5 -175
|
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Washington
- Under is 4-0 in Herzs last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Herzs last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Herzs last 4 home starts.
- Under is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.92 |
+115
|
o7.0 -127
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.22 |
-120
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +170
|
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Bazs last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games following a loss.
- Under is 7-1 in Bazs last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 games as an underdog.
- Yankees are 8-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Austin Wells o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1060)
o0.5+1060
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.40 |
-225
|
o8.0 -129
|
-1.5 -140
|
|
2.97 |
+210
|
u8.5 -115 
|
+1.5 +116
|
LA Dodgers
- Under is 3-0-3 in Dodgers last 6 road games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 vs. National League West.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 games as a favorite.
San Francisco
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 home games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 on grass.
Top Projection
Freddie Freeman o0.5 Total RBIs (+163)
o0.5+188
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.36 |
-180
|
o9.5 -118
|
-1.5 -115
|
|
5.32 |
+160
|
u10.0 -110 
|
+1.5 +100
|
Houston
- Over is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 overall.
Athletics
- Over is 7-0 in last 7 games a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total RBIs (+196)
o0.5+196
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.87 |
+145
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -148
|
|
4.66 |
-160
|
u6.5 +105 
|
-1.5 +146
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Martinezs last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Philadelphia
- Under is 3-0-1 in Walkers last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Phillies are 5-1 in Walkers last 6 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Victor Mesa Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
o0.5+800
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.16 |
-122
|
o7.5 +100
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
3.81 |
+105
|
u7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -157
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games following a loss.
- Over is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cubs last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Boston
- Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Jarren Duran o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+240
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.43 |
+150
|
o8.5 -113
|
+1.5 -120
|
|
4.49 |
-168
|
u8.5 +100
|
-1.5 +120
|
Cincinnati
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 road starts.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Reds last 9 during game 3 of a series.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+285)
o0.5+285
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.63 |
-115
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.17 |
+110
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -155
|
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 4-0 in Jones' last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Jones' last 4 road starts.
- Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games following a win.
- Under is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Spencer Horwitz o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.67 |
-110
|
o8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
3.84 |
+110
|
u8.5 -108
|
+1.5 -150
|
Cleveland
- Over is 6-0 in Guardians last 6 vs. American League Central.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central.
Kansas City
- Over is 7-0 in Royals last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Lynch IVs last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Daniel Lynch IV u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-112)
u3.5-112
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.56 |
-140
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
3.89 |
+122
|
u8.0 -113
|
+1.5 -137
|
Arizona
- Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sorokas last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Michael Soroka o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+130)
o3.5-160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.29 |
+145
|
o6.5 -145
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
3.80 |
-155
|
u7.5 -134
|
-1.5 +135
|
LA Angels
- Over is 7-0 in Angels last 7 road games.
- Over is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Angels last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Angels last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+400)
o0.5+400
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.51 |
+100
|
o8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.44 |
-110
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +162
|
Atlanta
- Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games as a road underdog.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 vs. National League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Marlins last 10 home games.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+193)
o0.5+193
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
+170
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -120
|
|
4.51 |
-167
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +120
|
Colorado
- Rockies are 4-0 in Freelands last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Freelands last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 13-2-1 in Rockies last 16 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rockies last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Kays last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+161)
o0.5+162
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.24 |
+200
|
o6.5 -130
|
+1.5 -120
|
|
4.32 |
-200
|
u7.0 -115
|
-1.5 +115
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as an underdog.
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-0-1 in Misiorowskis last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Misiorowskis last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Misiorowskis last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+400)
o0.5+400
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.29 |
-114
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
3.97 |
+105
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -160
|
Texas
- Over is 8-0 in Rangers last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 11-0 in Rangers last 11 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Rangers last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Rangers last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0-1 in Twins last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Twins last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Danny Jansen o0.5 Total RBIs (+310)
o0.5+310
NYM
@
WAS
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Mark Vientos o1.5 Total RBIs (+600)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Vientos in the 86th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Mark Vientos is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest fences among all stadiums — generally good for homers.. Mark Vientos will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against DJ Herz today.. Mark Vientos's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 14% to 19%.
Total Bases
Marcus Semien u1.5 Total Bases (-195)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Marcus Semien's BABIP skill is projected in the 22nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Marcus Semien is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst park in MLB for righty base hits.. Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to less offense.. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Marcus Semien in today's game.
BAL
@
NYY
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:05 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Ben Rice o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-107)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Ben Rice has been one of the hottest bats in the Yankees lineup and draws a favorable matchup against Baz and his struggles against left-handed hitters. Rice enters Sunday with the highest matchup rating in this game on Batters-Box, surpassing this prop in nearly 55% of his 55 elite ratings this season. Over his last 10 games, Rice has posted a .647 SLG, .412 ISO and 16.7% barrel rate. He has also hit .333 with a .762 SLG and .510 ISO over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
Total Hits
Spencer Jones o0.5 Total Hits (-144)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
New York Yankees outfielder Spencer Jones draws a favorable matchup against Baltimore Orioles right-hander Shane Baz this afternoon. Baz has struggled recently, posting a 6.06 ERA and 1.47 WHIP while allowing a 10.53% barrel rate. Left-handed hitters have especially given him trouble, with the last 30 posting a .451 xBA, .684 xSLG and .445 xwOBA against him. Jones has not been the hottest bat in New York’s lineup, but his hard-contact numbers remain encouraging. Over his last 10 games, he owns a 54.2% hard-hit rate and 12.5% barrel rate, making him worth backing at $1.44 to record a hit.
LAD
@
SF
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Mookie Betts o0.5 Total Home Runs (+585)
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst
Mookie Betts hits sinkers very well, posting a 135 wRC+ against the offering this year and a 164 wRC+ over the course of his career. Lonsway tosses sinkers at a 50% rate against righties, so this is a tailor-made matchup for Betts to have a productive day at the office.
The first two games of this series flew Under the total, finishing 2-0 and 4-3 Dodger victories. Here's going back to the well in the finale, given SF's poor offensive metrics [29th in wOBA (.275) across the last 14 days] and LA's lack of motivation with the No. 2 seed locked in.
HOU
@
ATH
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total Home Runs (+500)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
There's one more day to take advantage of Sutter Health Park. It's the best Over park in baseball and one that still isn't priced correctly after 162 games. Zack Gelof has been promoted up the lineup and gets Houston starter Peter Lambert, who is pitching on short rest. Gelof has already put a notch in his belt against Lambert, with one dinger in four plate appearances against the righty. Gelof has homered in four of his last five series, has a .920 OPS at home, and 15 homers against right-handed pitching. I'd play Gelof to 5x today.
Total Bases
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Gelof in the 86th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Zack Gelof is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.. The #1 ballpark in the league for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest fences in the league.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 84°.
TB
@
PHI
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Victor Mesa Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+212)
Projection 1.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Victor Mesa Jr. is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 9th-best stadium in the game for run-scoring.. Dingers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most humidity of the day (87%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Victor Mesa Jr. will hold the platoon advantage over Zack Wheeler in today's game... and even better, Wheeler has a large platoon split.
Total Bases
Bryan De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+205)
Projection 1.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 9th-best stadium in the game for run-scoring.. Dingers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most humidity of the day (87%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Bryan De La Cruz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.
CHC
@
BOS
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Trevor Story o0.5 Total Home Runs (+880)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Trevor Story sits near the top of the +EV home run bets today, per the projections. His fair price is around 7x compared to this 9.8x. He gets a pitcher who has allowed the second-most home runs in baseball over the last two seasons in Shota Imanaga. Imanaga is always featured here because he brings +EV dinger props: He's a good pitcher, but he does allow homers. He has the 13th-worst HR/9 over the last two seasons among starting pitchers with a minimum of 100 innings, along with the 27th-worst HR/FB rate. The Cubs own the tiebreaker over the Phillies, so their spot in the playoffs is locked in. There could be some mop-up arms for Story to face late in this game.
Total Home Runs
Pete Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Total Home Runs (+370)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
CIN
@
TOR
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:07 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+375)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
In a year where Vladdy struggled for power at home, it would be a fitting end for him to go yard to end the regular season. Williamson's .467 xSLG is among the worst in baseball and suggests we'll be seeing some loud contact from the Blue Jays today. Why not Vladdy? Let's ride with Toronto's franchise player one last time.
Strikeouts Thrown
Max Scherzer o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-105)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
In potentially his last start before retirement, it only makes sense to ride with the legend that is Max Scherzer. It helps that veteran has absolutely dominated this Cincinnati Reds lineup, striking them out at a 35% clip, which includes 10 punchouts of Eugenio Suarez. Not bad if you ask me. Coming off a seven-strikeout performance, I'm expecting Scherzer to go over this number one more time in the emotional end to an outstanding career.
PIT
@
DET
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Comerica Park has the shortest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation among all parks, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.
Total Bases
Eduardo Valencia u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.88
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Comerica Park ranks as the #21 stadium in MLB for right-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 2nd-deepest centerfield dimensions among all major league parks are found in Comerica Park.. Hitting from the same side that Jared Jones throws from, Eduardo Valencia will not have the upper hand today.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Eduardo Valencia's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 15.9% down to 9.1%.. Despite posting a .428 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Eduardo Valencia has had some very good luck given the .126 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .302.
CLE
@
KC
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+440)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Jo Adell has hammered left-handed pitching this year, hitting .314 with a .266 ISO and nearly 50% hard hit rate.
Daniel Lynch has a pitching outs line of 15.5 so he’s expected to get plenty of runway, opening the door for multiple Adell at-bats against the lefty.
When Lynch departs, Adell will face a very vulnerable bullpen. Royals relievers rank 29th in home runs per nine innings.
Total
u8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I can’t get to the 8.5 total, and would recommend the Under to 54%.
The Cleveland Guardians have played to the Under in 14 of Messick’s 15 road starts.
While this one could be a little shorter than usual, the Guardians still have an elite bullpen backing him up – and I doubt they get too casual with their usage given they have the entire week to rest.
AZ
@
SD
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (-128)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Diamondbacks are stringing together hits nicely but rank 23rd in homers this season. They’re generally not a team that runs up the score with quick-strike offense.
More importantly, the Padres are unlikely to contribute much. Soroka limits hard contact and walks effectively, making him a tough arm to score on at the best of times.
Total Home Runs
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total Home Runs (+358)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Corbin Carroll leads all Arizona Diamondbacks players in ISO (.256) and barrel rate (13.8%) against Randy Vasquez’ most-used pitchers.
Given that, it should be no surprise Carroll has a strong track record facing the righty. Carroll has hit safely in five of 15 at-bats and, more notably, generated nine hard hit balls along the way.
The Padres are also unlikely to throw their best relievers out there with a playoff game coming Tuesday.
LAA
@
SEA
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+182)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 6th-best hitter in the game.. Mike Trout is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for homers.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.
Total RBIs
Bryce Teodosio o0.5 Total RBIs (+500)
Projection 0.21
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Bryce Teodosio has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.. Bryce Teodosio has had some very poor luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 2.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is deflated compared to his 9.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
ATL
@
MIA
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 7th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The LoanDepot Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 118° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.. Ronald Acuna Jr. has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 13.3% seasonal rate to 22.6% over the last 14 days.. In the past 14 days, Ronald Acuna Jr.'s 32.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.9%.
Total Bases
Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Austin Riley ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The LoanDepot Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 118° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.. Austin Riley has big-time HR ability (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (29.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Janson Junk has a pitch-to-contact profile (15th percentile K%) — great news for Riley.. Austin Riley hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.. Over the past 7 days, Austin Riley's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.6% up to 30.8%.
COL
@
CHW
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Chase Meidroth o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Chase Meidroth has been one of the hottest bats in the White Sox lineup, making him an appealing option in this matchup. Over his last 10 games, Meidroth has posted an .833 SLG and .389 ISO while maintaining a 30% ground-ball rate and 15.4% barrel rate. The matchup gets even more intriguing against left-handed pitching, which has been a major strength for the 25-year-old. Against his last 30 lefties, Meidroth owns a 1.000 SLG and .480 ISO while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 12.5% barrel rate. With his recent production, Meidroth is my favorite look in this matchup. At 10%, we are getting great value.
Total
o8.5 (-109)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The White Sox may have missed out on the AL Central, but they have no reason to let off the gas in Game 162. Chicago appears to have snapped its cold streak and now draws a left-hander who has struggled badly over his last three starts, posting a 10.13 ERA and 2.34 WHIP while allowing a 55% hard-hit rate and 178% barrel rate. The White Sox left eight runners on base in last night’s 9-6 loss, showing there was plenty of offense left on the table. With two gritty lineups squaring off, I expect both sides to keep the pressure on.
STL
@
MIL
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+205)
Projection 1.35
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Jordan Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. American Family Field projects as the #8 field in the league for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all parks, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.
Total Bases
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Total Bases (+223)
Projection 1.3
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. JJ Wetherholt is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. Among all parks, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.
TEX
@
MIN
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Josh Bell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+600)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Total
u8.5 (-119)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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