Boston @ Chicago Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the 8th-worst ballpark in the majors for RHB BABIP. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Corey Julks will be at a colossal disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in this game. Corey Julks's 4.9% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) ranks in the 20th percentile since the start of last season. Corey Julks's 89.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable metric to study power) is in the 14th percentile since the start of last season.

The shallowest LF fences among all stadiums are found in Guaranteed Rate Field. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Bobby Dalbec's speed has improved this year. His 28.08 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.64 ft/sec now. Bobby Dalbec has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .221 rate is considerably lower than his .317 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Guaranteed Rate Field ranks as the #23 park in the game for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jarren Duran today. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, compiling a .336 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .318 — a .018 deviation. Posting a .272 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Jarren Duran is positioned in the 9th percentile for hitting ability. Since the start of last season, Jarren Duran's 5.3% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 23rd percentile among his peers.

Zach DeLoach is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for home runs. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Zach DeLoach will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Zach DeLoach will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Danny Mendick has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Danny Mendick will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

Guaranteed Rate Field ranks as the #23 park in the game for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Rafael Devers will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. Despite posting a .390 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Rafael Devers has had positive variance on his side given the .031 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .359. Rafael Devers grades out in the 14th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (38.5% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Luis Robert is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Luis Robert pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Luis Robert will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Connor Wong is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. The shallowest LF fences among all stadiums are found in Guaranteed Rate Field. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Connor Wong has been hot of late, tallying a .368 wOBA in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Gavin Sheets will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. Gavin Sheets pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Gavin Sheets will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP skill is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The shallowest LF fences among all stadiums are found in Guaranteed Rate Field. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Ranking in the 92nd percentile for Sprint Speed at 29 ft/sec this year, Ceddanne Rafaela is very quick.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Lenyn Sosa has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Lenyn Sosa will hold that advantage in today's game. When it comes to his batting average, Lenyn Sosa has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .204 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .232. Lenyn Sosa ranks in the 79th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (46.3% rate since the start of last season).

Andrew Vaughn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Andrew Vaughn is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Andrew Vaughn has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Andrew Vaughn will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today. The shallowest LF fences among all stadiums are found in Guaranteed Rate Field. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Rob Refsnyder has been hot lately, tallying a .406 wOBA in the last week's worth of games.

Nicky Lopez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Nicky Lopez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's game... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. Nicky Lopez has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Nicky Lopez will hold that advantage in today's game.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Dominic Smith will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Nastrini today. Dominic Smith has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Dominic Smith has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 15.9° figure is among the highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (85th percentile). In terms of plate discipline, Dominic Smith's skill is quite good, putting up a 1.91 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 79th percentile.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Martin Maldonado pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Martin Maldonado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Martin Maldonado's true offensive ability to be a .254, indicating that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .139 disparity between that mark and his actual .115 wOBA.

Paul DeJong is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Paul DeJong pulls many of his flyballs (34.6% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme groundball hitters like Paul DeJong usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Paul DeJong will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for home runs. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Oscar Colas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. Oscar Colas will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. When it comes to his batting average, Oscar Colas has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .217 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .235.

The shallowest LF fences among all stadiums are found in Guaranteed Rate Field. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Korey Lee will hold that advantage in today's game.

Enmanuel Valdez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Nastrini throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have the upper hand today. Enmanuel Valdez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.5% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Enmanuel Valdez has been unlucky this year, notching a .250 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .284 — a .034 disparity.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Nastrini throws from, David Hamilton will have the upper hand today. David Hamilton has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.