Baltimore @ Houston Picks & Props

20% of the time that Ryan O'Hearn has started against a northpaw this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter. Minute Maid Park projects as the #21 park in the game for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Among every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Houston Astros.

Jordan Westburg is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game. The #9 field in the game for suppressing base hits to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Batting from the same side that Justin Verlander throws from, Jordan Westburg will not have the upper hand in today's matchup.

Mauricio Dubon is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today. The #9 field in the game for suppressing base hits to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Grayson Rodriguez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mauricio Dubon in today's matchup.

The #9 field in the game for suppressing base hits to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Batting from the same side that Grayson Rodriguez throws from, Yainer Diaz will have a tough matchup in today's game. Yainer Diaz has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

Minute Maid Park projects as the #21 park in the game for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Among every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Houston Astros. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Gunnar Henderson in today's matchup.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 3rd-best hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over Grayson Rodriguez in today's game. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today. Yordan Alvarez will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 84th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Chas McCormick will hold that advantage today. Chas McCormick has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 6.7% seasonal rate to 20% over the last 7 days. Chas McCormick's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, rising from 18.7% on the season to 40% over the last 7 days. Chas McCormick has been unlucky this year, posting a .254 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .058 discrepancy.

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. Jorge Mateo's launch angle this season (14.2°) is significantly better than his 10.3° angle last year.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.322) provides evidence that James McCann has had some very poor luck this year with his .222 actual wOBA. The standard deviation of James McCann's launch angle since the start of last season (25.3°) is in the 92nd percentile. A low figure like this tends to lead to a higher batting average on balls in play.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Jose Altuve is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today. Jose Altuve will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Ryan Mountcastle's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan Mountcastle is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Ryan Mountcastle has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 103.2-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal figure of 95.5-mph. Sporting a .271 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Ryan Mountcastle grades out in the 82nd percentile. Ryan Mountcastle is in the 91st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (48% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 78th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Jake Meyers has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (88% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest in MLB. Adley Rutschman's launch angle this year (17.7°) is significantly higher than his 12.5° angle last season. Adley Rutschman's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (19.3° over the past 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 15.3° seasonal figure.

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Anthony Santander has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 10.6% seasonal rate to 27.8% in the past 7 days. Anthony Santander has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.1-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 88.7-mph mark. Anthony Santander's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, going from 15.3% on the season to 27.8% in the past 7 days. Anthony Santander has recorded a .334 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 76th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser as the 10th-best hitter in the majors when estimating his BABIP ability. Colton Cowser will have the handedness advantage against Justin Verlander today. Colton Cowser may have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Houston Astros only has 1 same-handed RP. Colton Cowser has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Over the last week, Colton Cowser's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 98.1-mph over the course of the season to 110-mph lately.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today. Baltimore's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Alex Bregman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs. Alex Bregman will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Cedric Mullins II will hold the platoon advantage over Justin Verlander in today's matchup. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cedric Mullins II stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Cedric Mullins II's launch angle of late (29.9° in the past 14 days) is a considerable increase over his 22.2° seasonal mark. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cedric Mullins II's true offensive ability to be a .310, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .056 disparity between that figure and his actual .254 wOBA. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Cedric Mullins II ranks in the 97th percentile with a 22.2° launch angle, which is one of the steepest angles in baseball.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. Jeremy Pena will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Jeremy Pena has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 92.6-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 90.4-mph. By putting up a .275 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Jeremy Pena is positioned in the 86th percentile.

Jon Singleton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Grayson Rodriguez today. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Jon Singleton will hold that advantage in today's game.

Trey Cabbage's BABIP ability is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest in MLB. Trey Cabbage will hold the platoon advantage against Grayson Rodriguez in today's game. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Trey Cabbage will hold that advantage in today's matchup.