Baltimore @ Houston Picks & Props

Long-balls are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest in Major League Baseball. Jorge Mateo's launch angle this season (14.2°) is quite a bit higher than his 10.3° mark last year.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 3rd-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Yordan Alvarez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Corbin Burnes in today's matchup. Yordan Alvarez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Yordan Alvarez has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 13.5% seasonal rate to 23.3% over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 84th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Chas McCormick will hold that advantage today. Chas McCormick has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 8.9% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the last 14 days. In the last 14 days, Chas McCormick's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.8%. Despite posting a .250 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Chas McCormick has had bad variance on his side given the .063 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .313.

Ramon Urias has notched a .331 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 88th percentile.

Jose Altuve's batting average skill is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Altuve is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last week, Jose Altuve's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92-mph over the course of the season to 94.6-mph of late.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game. Long-balls are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest in Major League Baseball. Adley Rutschman has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph to 91.4-mph in the last week's worth of games. Adley Rutschman's launch angle this year (17.4°) is quite a bit better than his 12.5° figure last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 76th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Jake Meyers has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field fences among all major league stadiums. Jake Meyers will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 40% to 48.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field fences among all major league stadiums. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past 14 days, Jeremy Pena's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.4-mph over the course of the season to 94.3-mph of late. Utilizing Statcast data, Jeremy Pena ranks in the 87th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .276.

Yainer Diaz's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Yainer Diaz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Yainer Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 13.6% on the season to 27.8% over the last week. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Yainer Diaz has experienced some negative variance this year. His .293 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .321.

Jordan Westburg's BABIP ability is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field fences among all major league stadiums. Jordan Westburg has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 10.8% seasonal rate to 20% over the last 14 days. In comparison to his 90.2-mph average last year, Jordan Westburg's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 92.2 mph. Over the past two weeks, Jordan Westburg's 30% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. Long-balls are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest in Major League Baseball. Batting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have an edge in today's game. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O'Hearn has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

Jon Singleton will hold the platoon advantage against Corbin Burnes today. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense projects as the weakest out of all the teams today. Jon Singleton will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Hitting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Cedric Mullins II will have an advantage in today's matchup. Cedric Mullins II is apt to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Houston Astros only has 1 same-handed RP. In the last week, Cedric Mullins II's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 40.7%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cedric Mullins II's true offensive skill to be a .310, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .054 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .256 wOBA. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Cedric Mullins II ranks in the 97th percentile with a 21.8° launch angle, which is among the steepest angles in MLB.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Ryan Mountcastle is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Ryan Mountcastle has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 103.2-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal figure of 95.5-mph. With a .273 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Ryan Mountcastle is positioned in the 84th percentile. Ryan Mountcastle grades out in the 91st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (48.1% rate this year).

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 15th-best hitter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have an advantage in today's matchup. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Gunnar Henderson stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Gunnar Henderson has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. Alex Bregman will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. In terms of plate discipline, Alex Bregman's ability is quite good, putting up a 1.83 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 80th percentile.

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. Anthony Santander has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 10.4% seasonal rate to 17.9% in the past 14 days. Anthony Santander has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph to 93.5-mph in the past 14 days. Over the last week, Anthony Santander has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 24.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 16.4°. Ranking in the 84th percentile, Anthony Santander sits with a .352 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser as the 10th-best batter in the league when assessing his BABIP talent. Batting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Colton Cowser will have an edge in today's game. Colton Cowser will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Houston Astros only has 1 same-handed RP. Colton Cowser has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Colton Cowser has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 110-mph average in the past week to his seasonal EV of 98.1-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Sporting a .299 batting average this year, Mauricio Dubon has performed in the 92nd percentile.