MLB Picks

Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Progressive Field grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. Vinnie Pasquantino will have the handedness advantage against Gavin Williams in today's matchup.. Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Progressive Field grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Gavin Williams throws from, Jac Caglianone will have an edge today.. Over the last two weeks, Jac Caglianone's maximum exit velocity (a good measure of recent form and raw power) has been 116.1-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in Major League Baseball.. In terms of his batting average, Jac Caglianone has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .172 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .246.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #5 venue in the game for overall LHB offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dingers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Batting from the opposite that Shane Smith throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Pete Alonso as Major League Baseball's 15th-best home run hitter.. Pete Alonso is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #5 field in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Pete Alonso has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Pete Alonso has been hot of late, notching a 94.9-mph average exit velocity in the last 14 days.

Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences in the majors.. Over the last 7 days, Jose Fernandez has displayed impressive power, recording a a 25% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power).. Posting a 93.9-mph average exit velocity over the past week, Jose Fernandez has been in great form lately.. Jose Fernandez has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs recently, angling balls between 23° and 34° 37.5% of the time in the last week's worth of games.

Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences in the majors.. Over the last 7 days, Jose Fernandez has displayed impressive power, recording a a 25% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power).. Posting a 93.9-mph average exit velocity over the past week, Jose Fernandez has been in great form lately.. Jose Fernandez has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs recently, angling balls between 23° and 34° 37.5% of the time in the last week's worth of games.

With the temps dropping to the 40s, finding dingers indoors is the key to a profitable home run card on Tuesday. The Trop is back, and Junior Caminero went deep there yesterday afternoon, which was his second straight game with a four-bagger. He has hits in four straight games, and nobody in baseball has a harder hit ball than him with his league-leading exit velocity of 116.9 mph. He faces Javier Assad, who was recalled from Triple-A to fill in for Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton. In his last minor league outing, Assad allowed two home runs on 11 hits and profiles as a contact-heavy arm. This shapes up as one of the better hitting matchups on the slate, making Caminero a strong value play at this price in a controlled environment.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 84th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 22° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.. Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an advantage in today's matchup.. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Pete Crow-Armstrong has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The Miami Marlins are listed as -122 favorites at home against the Cincinnati Reds, and that number stands out—I make them closer to -155 in this spot. Two key matchup edges drive this play. First, Austin Slater at the top of the lineup is a great fit here. As a right-handed bat, he’s long been effective against left-handed pitching, particularly when it comes to attacking high fastballs—Andrew Abbott’s primary pitch. That gives Miami an immediate advantage at the top of the order. The second is the Sandy Alcantara vs. Elly De La Cruz matchup. De La Cruz brings a high-variance profile with significant strikeout risk, and Alcantara’s mix of a high-velocity sinker and changeup is well-suited to exploit that. He has the tools to consistently disrupt De La Cruz’s timing and limit his impact. When you combine those matchup advantages, this price feels too short for Miami.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 7th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 22° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Sandy Alcantara in today's matchup.. Elly De La Cruz has been hot lately, compiling a 97-mph average exit velocity in the past 7 days.

The Paul Skenes tax is alive and well on this Tuesday morning, and we’re fading the Pirates because of it. The Padres are trading as +130 underdogs on the moneyline with Nick Pivetta on the mound, and that number is far too long—I make it closer to +105 in this spot. Skenes is a power pitcher with elite velocity, which is a problem for most lineups, but San Diego is built to handle it. The top of their order looks to ambush fastballs, and velocity doesn’t faze hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. This isn’t an ideal matchup for Skenes given the Padres’ offensive profile. On the other side, Pivetta’s high-spin fastball, which he locates at the top of the zone, can create real issues for Pittsburgh’s lineup—particularly for hitters like Brandon Lowe and Oneil Cruz in the middle of the order. When you factor in both matchups, this price feels inflated toward Pittsburgh, making San Diego the value side.

San Diego proved the weather excuse hollow by dropping five runs at PNC Park last night, and Pittsburgh's lineup isn't getting blanked twice. One crooked inning from either side cashes this ticket at no juice, and the number is below the key number seven, which makes this a good bet. 

 

Let’s hope Red Sox fans are chanting for ownership to sell the team again on Tuesday—because that would mean we're in a great spot with our moneyline bet on the Brewers. If you’re nervous about fading Garrett Crochet, the good news is you likely won’t be facing him for a full nine innings. It’s early in the season, and with his strikeout-heavy approach, the Brewers have the type of lineup that can drive up his pitch count and force the Red Sox bullpen into action earlier than they’d prefer. Boston’s lineup is loaded with lefties at the top, but the crossfire delivery of Misiorowski should help neutralize some of that platoon advantage. I also expect the Brewers to be aggressive on the basepaths against Crochet and create additional pressure with their running game. Altogether, this sets up as a strong spot for Milwaukee on the moneyline.

Compared to the average pitcher, Jacob Misiorowski has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -9.0 fewer adjusted pitches each game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-worst field in the majors for strikeouts.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.5-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Jacob Misiorowski will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.. Jacob Misiorowski has used his four-seam fastball 8.9% more often this season (63.3%) than he did last year (54.4%).

There’s screaming statistical correction coming for St. Louis lefty Matthew Liberatore, and the Washington lineup is set to serve it. Liberatore’s 1.64 ERA through two starts is saddled with a 5.28 xFIP and both his .216 BABIP and 100.0% strand rate are going to take hits tonight. And, while it might be a small sample, I’m still bullish about the Nationals pacing the majors in on-base percentage and ranking third in wOBA across 128 plate appearances against southpaws.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. In MLB, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 9th-shallowest.. Alec Burleson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Cavalli today.. Compared to last season, Alec Burleson has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 44.4% to 55.6% this season.

Aaron Judge found his rhythm this weekend against the Marlins, batting 6-for-12 with 2+ total bases in each contest.

Judge feasts on sinkers and cutters, which Athletics starter Aaron Civale goes to over 60% of the time. The A's bullpen has also been brutal, ranking 30th in WHIP and 22nd in ERA.

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brent Rooker in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Brent Rooker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.8-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.. Brent Rooker has been hot lately, posting a an 18.8% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) in the last 14 days.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto relies on his fastball/splitter combination. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. owns the highest OPS against the splitter in the Jays lineup and owns a career 1.000 OPS against him. 

With injuries and ineffectiveness blasting Toronto's rotation, the Blue Jays will need an extended outing from Kevin Gausman, who has cleared 17.5 outs in both starts so far this season.

Tarik Skubal has picked up right where he left off last season, allowing just one earned run through his first two starts (13 innings) this year.

Skubal will dominate again vs. the Twins, who are averaging a meager 1.67 runs in the first five innings and batting just .169 vs. southpaws.

It is likely that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Quinn Wolcott) calling pitches in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 10th-worst venue in the league for strikeouts.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. With 8 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Tarik Skubal will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.. Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Tarik Skubal in today's matchup.

Cole Young has made an immediate impact in his second season in the majors, collecting at least one hit in eight of 10 appearances.

Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi has dealt with plenty of injuries over the past year and doesn't look up to speed just yet. He carries a bloated 11.42 ERA through two starts while allowing 6+ hits in both outings.

When assessing his batting average talent, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 12th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Julio Rodriguez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. On average, the fence height at Globe Life Field is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The weather forecast expects the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. In terms of his batting average, Julio Rodriguez has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .260 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .278.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #1 stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-most favorable for hitting of the day.

When assessing his home run talent, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mickey Moniak is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The #1 stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-most favorable for hitting of the day.

Baldwin has already failed me this year, but of course, he got hot after I bet on him with back-to-back games going deep. He is currently tied for the league lead with five homers. A price north of +500 in Anaheim, with decent hitting conditions, is putting him back in my trust tree. He is a Top-10 hitter in baseball right now who isn't striking out. There are three other Braves who have taken Yusei Kikuchi deep over their careers in Ronald Acuna (+360), Matt Olson (+390), and Ozzie Albies (+520), so there is plenty of info for Baldwin, who handles lefties just as well as righties. This might be a great spot for a two-man Atlanta round robin homer card with the two shortest odds making better than 20/1 odds. That's six combinations at doubles. At 0.15 units per bet, that would be a decent winner at less than a unit risk. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Jorge Soler is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 8th-best park in baseball for righty home runs.. Angel Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. The weather forecast projects the 3rd-best hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Bryce Harper projects as the 12th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The #4 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. Oracle Park has the shallowest RF fences among all stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.8-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Alec Bohm is projected as the 20th-best batter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alec Bohm is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the 4th-best ballpark in the majors for RHB batting average.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.8-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. Alec Bohm will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Robbie Ray today.