St. Louis @ Washington Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest right field fences among all major league stadiums. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 97°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Lars Nootbaar will probably have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest right field fences among all major league stadiums. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 97°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Brendan Donovan will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.345) provides evidence that Brendan Donovan has experienced some negative variance this year with his .324 actual wOBA.

Nationals Park ranks as the #27 venue in baseball for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Masyn Winn in today's game. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 89.7-mph figure last season has decreased to 85.5-mph. Over the past week, Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal mark of 85.5 mph to 83.4 mph. Masyn Winn's launch angle of late (-1.6° in the past week's worth of games) is significantly lower than his 14.8° seasonal angle.

Luis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today. The #4 park in MLB for suppressing base hits to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of every team on the slate today.

Nationals Park ranks as the #27 venue in baseball for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the same side that Miles Mikolas throws from, Lane Thomas has a tough challenge today. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of every team on the slate today. Lane Thomas has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph to 93-mph in the past week's worth of games. Lane Thomas's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, decreasing from 14% on the season to 0% over the last week.

Nationals Park ranks as the #27 venue in baseball for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Paul Goldschmidt in today's matchup. In the last week, Paul Goldschmidt's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.4% up to 18.8%. In the past week's worth of games, Paul Goldschmidt's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12%. Paul Goldschmidt has put up a .284 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 25th percentile.

The #4 park in MLB for suppressing base hits to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of every team on the slate today. Despite posting a .364 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes CJ Abrams has been lucky given the .049 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .315.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesse Winker in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jesse Winker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest right field fences among all major league stadiums. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 97°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Jesse Winker will have an edge in today's matchup.

The #4 park in MLB for suppressing base hits to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Mitchell Parker will hold the platoon advantage over Alec Burleson in today's matchup. Alec Burleson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Alec Burleson has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph dropping to 86-mph in the last week's worth of games. Alec Burleson has been lucky this year, notching a .331 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .311 — a .020 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. James Wood is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest right field fences among all major league stadiums. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 97°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, James Wood will have an advantage today.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 97°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Nolan Gorman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Over the last week, Nolan Gorman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.7% up to 33.3%. Nolan Gorman's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (26.6°) is considerably better than his 21.5° angle last season.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 97°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Juan Yepez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last 7 days, Juan Yepez's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 66.7% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 97°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jacob Young has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Jacob Young will hold that advantage today. Over the last 7 days, Jacob Young's 31.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 11.1%.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 97°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). LaVictor Lipscomb has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and LaVictor Lipscomb will hold that advantage in today's game.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 97°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Mitchell Parker. Last season, Dylan Carlson had an average launch angle of 15° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 25.6°. As it relates to his batting average, Dylan Carlson has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .212 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .242.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 97°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Mitchell Parker throws from, Nolan Arenado will have an edge today. In the last week's worth of games, Nolan Arenado's 68.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.9%.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 97°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Miles Mikolas. Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.3% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Keibert Ruiz will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 97°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Willson Contreras will hold the platoon advantage over Mitchell Parker in today's matchup. Willson Contreras has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.