Kansas City @ St. Louis Picks & Props

The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Alec Marsh throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Nolan Gorman has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph to 91.1-mph in the past two weeks. Nolan Gorman's launch angle in recent games (27.3° over the last two weeks) is significantly better than his 21° seasonal mark.

Andre Pallante will hold the platoon advantage over Bobby Witt Jr. in today's matchup. Bobby Witt Jr. has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's game. Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Bobby Witt Jr. in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Alec Marsh throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an advantage in today's game. Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Lars Nootbaar will hold that advantage today.

Home runs are generally less common at parks with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest in the league. Alec Marsh will have the handedness advantage against Masyn Winn in today's matchup. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.7-mph EV last year has fallen to 86-mph. Masyn Winn's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased of late, going from 46.4% on the season to 33.3% over the last week. Over the last 14 days, Masyn Winn has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Garrett Hampson in the 86th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Garrett Hampson hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Compared to last year, Garrett Hampson has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.9% to 23.2% this season. Checking in at the 96th percentile, Garrett Hampson sits with a .370 BABIP since the start of last season.

Michael Massey is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Michael Massey will have an advantage in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Michael Massey are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante. Michael Massey has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 8% seasonal rate to 15.4% in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Maikel Garcia is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Over the past week, Maikel Garcia's 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.2%. Maikel Garcia has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .230 BA is a fair amount lower than his .270 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Brendan Donovan's batting average skill is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brendan Donovan is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Alec Marsh throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an edge in today's game. Brendan Donovan will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). In the last week, Nick Loftin's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 86-mph over the course of the season to 100.3-mph of late. Nick Loftin has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .200 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .231 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. With a 1.58 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Nick Loftin has shown strong plate discipline, ranking in the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vinnie Pasquantino in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Vinnie Pasquantino will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Vinnie Pasquantino has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.4-mph average to last year's 89.1-mph mark.

The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Freddy Fermin's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, increasing from 42.9% on the season to 70% in the past week. Freddy Fermin has recorded a .297 batting average this year, grading out in the 93rd percentile.

Alec Burleson's batting average skill is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Burleson is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Alec Marsh throws from, Alec Burleson will have an advantage today. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 81st percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Kyle Isbel will have an edge in today's matchup.

The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). MJ Melendez will have the handedness advantage against Andre Pallante today. MJ Melendez has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .269 rate is a good deal lower than his .305 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Pedro Pages hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Paul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage in today's game. Paul Goldschmidt has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last season's 93.9-mph figure.

Hunter Renfroe is penciled in 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Willson Contreras ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Willson Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today.

Adam Frazier has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Adam Frazier will hold the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today's game. As it relates to his batting average, Adam Frazier has had bad variance on his side this year. His .205 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .252. Adam Frazier has exhibited strong plate discipline this year, ranking in the 77th percentile with a 2.1 K/BB rate.

The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. Nolan Arenado's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, rising from 45.1% on the season to 66.7% over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Salvador Perez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Extreme flyball hitters like Salvador Perez tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante. Over the past 14 days, Salvador Perez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.6-mph over the course of the season to 96.8-mph of late.