Kansas City @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Hitting from the same side that Gordon Graceffo throws from, Bobby Witt Jr. will have a tough challenge today. Bobby Witt Jr. has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences today. Bobby Witt Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.

HRs are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest among all parks. Michael Wacha will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Masyn Winn in today's matchup. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 89.7-mph EV last year has dropped to 86-mph. Masyn Winn's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off recently, decreasing from 46.4% on the season to 33.3% over the last 7 days. In the past two weeks, Masyn Winn has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Batting from the same side that Gordon Graceffo throws from, Salvador Perez will not have the upper hand in today's matchup. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.8% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Salvador Perez in today's matchup. Salvador Perez has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 12.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last 7 days. Salvador Perez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, decreasing from 16.7% on the season to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

Hitting from the opposite that Gordon Graceffo throws from, Kyle Isbel will have an edge in today's matchup.

MJ Melendez will hold the platoon advantage against Gordon Graceffo in today's game. MJ Melendez has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .269 figure is considerably lower than his .305 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Adam Frazier is penciled in 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Adam Frazier will have the handedness advantage over Gordon Graceffo in today's game. As it relates to his batting average, Adam Frazier has been unlucky this year. His .205 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .252. By putting up a 2.1 K/BB rate this year, Adam Frazier has displayed good plate discipline, ranking in the 77th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vinnie Pasquantino in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. Vinnie Pasquantino will have the handedness advantage against Gordon Graceffo today. In comparison to his 89.1-mph average last year, Vinnie Pasquantino's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 91.4 mph. In the past 14 days, Vinnie Pasquantino's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.1-mph over the course of the season to 96.9-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. Willson Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's game. Willson Contreras has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 13.3% seasonal rate to 25% over the last week.

Batting from the opposite that Michael Wacha throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an edge in today's game. Nolan Gorman will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Nolan Gorman has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph to 91.1-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Nolan Gorman's launch angle of late (27.3° over the last 14 days) is a significant increase over his 21° seasonal mark. Nolan Gorman's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (26.5°) is significantly better than his 21.5° figure last season.

Freddy Fermin's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, rising from 42.9% on the season to 70% in the past week's worth of games. Ranking in the 93rd percentile, Freddy Fermin sports a .297 batting average this year.

Hunter Renfroe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Michael Massey is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Batting from the opposite that Gordon Graceffo throws from, Michael Massey will have an advantage in today's game. In the past week, Michael Massey's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8% up to 15.4%. Over the past 14 days, Michael Massey's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.4%.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Paul Goldschmidt will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Paul Goldschmidt has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last year's 93.9-mph average. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.311) suggests that Paul Goldschmidt has been unlucky this year with his .290 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage over Michael Wacha in today's game. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Lars Nootbaar will hold that advantage in today's game.

Brendan Donovan's batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. Brendan Donovan will hold the platoon advantage over Michael Wacha today. Brendan Donovan will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Sporting a .343 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Brendan Donovan has performed in the 83rd percentile for offensive ability.

Nolan Arenado will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Nolan Arenado's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 45.1% on the season to 66.7% in the past week's worth of games.

Alec Burleson's batting average talent is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Michael Wacha throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge in today's matchup. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Alec Burleson will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Brandon Crawford will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael Wacha in today's game. Brandon Crawford hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Brandon Crawford will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Compared to last year, Brandon Crawford has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.7% to 16.7% this season. Brandon Crawford has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .261 rate is a fair amount lower than his .290 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Matt Carpenter has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.