Cincinnati @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Amed Rosario has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 12% of the time when starting against a lefty hurler this year. The #3 park in the league for suppressing BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this game -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Amed Rosario hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. Amed Rosario's launch angle this season (2.6°) is a significant dropoff from his 7.5° angle last year.

The #3 park in the league for suppressing BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this game -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (-0.5°) is considerably lower than his 4.9° angle last year. Yandy Diaz's footspeed has decreased this year. His 26.61 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.54 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Batting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Jose Siri will have the upper hand today. Jose Siri pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the worst among all the teams in action today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Jose Caballero will have an advantage today. Jose Caballero pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the worst among all the teams in action today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past 7 days, Jose Caballero's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.2-mph over the course of the season to 96.5-mph of late.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the worst among all the teams in action today. Brandon Lowe will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Brandon Lowe has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 15.6% seasonal rate to 23.8% in the last two weeks.

Noelvi Marte has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Noelvi Marte has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 94.9-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 87.9-mph. In the last 7 days, Noelvi Marte's 21.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 12.5%. Grading out in the 95th percentile, the hardest ball Noelvi Marte has made contact with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.6 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power ability. Sporting a .322 BABIP since the start of last season, Noelvi Marte has performed in the 81st percentile.

Hitting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Jake Fraley will have an advantage today. Jake Fraley pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Jake Fraley has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 105.3-mph average in the past week to his seasonal mark of 89.5-mph. Jake Fraley's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, rising from 40.9% on the season to 50% in the last 7 days. Posting a .340 BABIP this year, Jake Fraley is ranked in the 89th percentile.

Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in MLB. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Taylor Walls will get to bat from his better side against Andrew Abbott today. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the worst among all the teams in action today. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Taylor Walls's true offensive skill to be a .281, suggesting that he has been unlucky this year given the .042 disparity between that figure and his actual .239 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game. Jonathan India pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Based on Statcast data, Jonathan India is in the 87th percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .349. Jonathan India has put up a .342 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 78th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Spencer Steer ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Spencer Steer is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. In the past week's worth of games, Spencer Steer's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 103-mph recently. Spencer Steer's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, increasing from 43.7% on the season to 58.8% over the last week.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Elly De La Cruz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Zack Littell today. Elly De La Cruz has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 13.2% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Elly De La Cruz has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.6-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 91.2-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Curtis Mead in the 77th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Curtis Mead is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Hitting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Curtis Mead will have an advantage today. Curtis Mead has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the worst among all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Tyler Stephenson has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Tyler Stephenson has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.3-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.6-mph average.

T.J. Friedl is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. T.J. Friedl will have the handedness advantage over Zack Littell today. T.J. Friedl pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Compared to last season, T.J. Friedl has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 18.6% to 21.9% this season. Grading out in the 77th percentile, T.J. Friedl has put up a .335 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. Isaac Paredes will hold the platoon advantage over Andrew Abbott in today's matchup. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.5% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the worst among all the teams in action today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage today.

Jeimer Candelario is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Hitting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Alex Jackson will have the upper hand in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the worst among all the teams in action today. Alex Jackson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Over the last 7 days, Alex Jackson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13% up to 20%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alex Jackson's true offensive talent to be a .279, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .101 gap between that figure and his actual .178 wOBA.

Will Benson will have the handedness advantage over Zack Littell in today's matchup. Will Benson's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (17.8°) is considerably better than his 14.5° mark last year. This year, Will Benson's 12.2% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 85th percentile among his peers. Will Benson's 94.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable metric to measure power) grades out in the 75th percentile this year.