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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 23, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.17 |
+105 
|
o7.5 -109 
|
+1.5 -200 
|
|
3.60 |
-120 
|
u8.0 -135
|
-1.5 +175
|
Toronto
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1 in Blue Jays last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Baltimore
- Under is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Kazuma Okamoto o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+115)
o1.5+117
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.41 |
-122 
|
o7.0 -111
|
-1.5 +143 
|
|
4.02 |
+110
|
u7.5 -124
|
+1.5 -164 
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Nolas last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Nolas last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Brice Turang o0.5 Total RBIs (+231)
o0.5+231
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.25 |
+120
|
o7.0 -120 
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.13 |
-134
|
u7.5 -118
|
-1.5 +160
|
St. Louis
- Over is 7-0 in Liberatores last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 8-0-1 in Cardinals last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Cardinals are 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Bachars last 6 starts on grass.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.90 |
+128
|
o6.5 -104
|
+1.5 -195
|
|
4.15 |
-135
|
u6.5 -104
|
-1.5 +169
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Coles last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts overall.
- Under is 8-1 in Coles last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Ryan Vilade o0.5 Total Home Runs (+940)
o0.5+940
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.83 |
+118
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
3.90 |
-134
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +176
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Grays last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total RBIs (+218)
o0.5+218
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.67 |
+222
|
o7.0 -118
|
+1.5 +100
|
|
4.60 |
-250
|
u7.5 -118
|
-1.5 -110
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 4-0-2 in Reds last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.06 |
-115
|
o8.5 -108
|
-1.5 +146
|
|
5.03 |
+100
|
u8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -165
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 6-0 in Feddes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lugos last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Lugos last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.23 |
+160
|
o6.5 -120
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
4.07 |
-180
|
u6.5 +105
|
-1.5 +130
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+319)
o0.5+319
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.47 |
-108
|
o7.5 -114
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
3.94 |
-107
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -183
|
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in McLeans last 4 starts vs. American League West.
Texas
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Rangers last 9 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.32 |
-155
|
o10.5 -139
|
-1.5 -102
|
|
5.12 |
+138
|
u11.5 -130 
|
+1.5 -110
|
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Kellys last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Mickey Moniak o1.5 Total Bases (+148)
o1.5+148
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.46 |
-129
|
o9.5 +100
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.91 |
+114
|
u9.5 -110
|
+1.5 -140
|
LA Angels
- Over is 6-0 in Angels last 6 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Athletics
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 home starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Springs' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-135)
o1.5-130
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.64 |
+188
|
o7.5 -132
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
5.46 |
-215
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +102
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 during game 2 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Yamamotos last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Will Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+163)
o0.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.01 |
+110
|
o7.5 -114
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.56 |
-120
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +162
|
Houston
- Under is 7-0-2 in Astros last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Astros last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Seattle
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mariners last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Randy Arozarena o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.74 |
+136
|
o6.5 -130
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
|
4.38 |
-154
|
u7.0 -115
|
-1.5 +152
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Leahys last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.31 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.87 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games.
- Over is 8-2 in White Sox last 10 vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as a favorite.
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0 in Royals last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Royals last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Royals last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Royals last 5 vs. American League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.33 |
+160
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -135
|
|
|
4.19 |
-190
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +118
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cubs last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.72 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.54 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 on grass.
Texas
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games.
- Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.34 |
-170
|
o10.0 -114
|
-1.5 -110
|
|
|
4.83 |
+152
|
u10.5 -122
|
+1.5 -105
|
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games.
- Diamondbacks are 9-0 in Rodriguezs last 9 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rodriguezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.52 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.65 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Over is 8-1-1 in Brewers last 10 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.66 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.36 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Suarezs last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 home starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.61 |
+129
|
o6.5 -120
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
|
4.40 |
-145
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +165
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
- Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 overall.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 home starts.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Yankees last 8 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.40 |
+180
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -122
|
|
|
5.41 |
-210
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +114
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 6-0-1 in Singers last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Reds last 8 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Reds last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in Mahles last 5 starts on grass.
- Braves are 5-0 in Mahles last 5 starts.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.70 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.35 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Houston
- Under is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-1 in Astros last 9 games as a favorite.
- Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 road games.
Athletics
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 11-1 in last 12 vs. American League West.
TOR
@
BAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:35 PM ET
Total RBIs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kazuma Okamoto in the 95th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Kazuma Okamoto is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Bats such as Kazuma Okamoto with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Trey Gibson who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs
Colton Cowser o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
Projection 0.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Colton Cowser ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The shallowest right field fences among all parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. Hitting from the opposite that CJ Van Eyk throws from, Colton Cowser will have an advantage in today's game.. Colton Cowser has big-time HR ability (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (31.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher CJ Van Eyk doesn't generate many whiffs (7th percentile K%) — great news for Cowser.. Colton Cowser will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.
MIL
@
PHI
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
William Contreras o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Contreras has a high-end .882 OPS with a homer across 34 plate appearances against Philly starter Aaron Nola. Of course, Nola has also served up 14 homers with a .225 ISO to right-handed hitters.
Total
o7.5 (+103)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This Over 7.5 is in play to -105 because Philadelphia has scored 4.7 runs per game across the past two weeks, and Milwaukee has been even better with 6.5 per game. Both teams have trended to the Over, too, and I'm anticipating the Brewers doing damage against Phillies veteran Aaron Nola. His 2.10 ERA across his past 10 starts is miles below his underlying 3.69 xERA and 3.78 xFIP, after all.
STL
@
PIT
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Masyn Winn o1.5 Total Bases (+275)
Projection 1.19
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
PNC Park ranks as the #3 venue in the league for righty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Despite posting a .282 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Masyn Winn has been unlucky given the .014 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .296.
Total RBIs
Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Alec Burleson's batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. PNC Park ranks as the #3 stadium in the game for left-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage against Lake Bachar in today's game.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today.
TB
@
NYY
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Hits
Victor Mesa Jr. o0.5 Total Hits (-133)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Jose Mesa is in a great spot to record a hit against Yankees starter Gerrit Cole. Mesa carries an elite rating on Batters-Box and is crushing over 85% of Cole’s pitch mix. He has been on fire against right-handed pitching, batting .407 with a .852 SLG and 1.319 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances. Cole has struggled against left-handed hitters, who own a .408 xBA, .630 xSLG and .353 xwOBA over his last 60 batters faced. At this price, we just need Mesa to do the bare minimum and record one hit.
Total Hits
Spencer Jones o0.5 Total Hits (-133)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Spencer Jones has been lights out against left-handed pitching, making his matchup with Rays southpaw Ian Seymour particularly appealing. Jones ranks No. 1 on both Batters-Box datasets while covering nearly 96% of Seymour’s pitch mix. Over his last 30 at-bats against lefties, Jones owns a .519 BA, .778 SLG and 1.345 OPS while barreling the ball at an 11% clip. Meanwhile, left-handed hitters have generated a 33% line-drive rate against Seymour over his last 30 batters faced. I grabbed Jones at -115 and would pay down to -150, making anything below -140 a strong price.
CLE
@
BOS
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Chase DeLauter o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Sonny Gray really likes to mix it up on the mound but the two pitches he throws more than 20% of the time are fastballs and curveballs.
That sets up well for Chase DeLauter, who has teed off on that combination over his last 25 games.
He is sporting a .519 average with a .444 ISO, 16.7 barrel rate, and near 97 mile per hour average exit velocity.
Total
u7.5 (-129)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I like the Under to 58%.
Sonny Gray owns a 2.33 ERA over nine starts vs. Bottom-10 teams in OBP. That’s noteworthy as the Cleveland Guardians slot 22nd on the year.
While Foster Griffin has not limited runs as effectively with the Guardians, he has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park. He is allowing 0.96 home runs per nine innings with Cleveland.
CIN
@
ATL
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:15 PM ET
Spread
ATL -1.5 (-109)
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst
Sure, I’ll back Chris Sale and his 1.66 home ERA against a team that can’t hit lefties. The Reds rank 28th in OPS vs LHP over the last two weeks, while Atlanta is 10-3 in Sale’s home starts and should be eager to bounce back after losing yesterday. Andrew Abbott has been obliterated for 23 earned runs across his last four road starts. Cincinnati's bullpen offers little relief, ranking dead last in ERA (6.04) over the last two weeks.
Total Bases
Matt McLain o1.5 Total Bases (+236)
Projection 1.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his home run skill, Matt McLain ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for boosting offensive stats to RHB.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. This game is forecasted to have the 34th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Matt McLain will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today's game... and the cherry on top, Sale has a huge platoon split.
CHW
@
KC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Colson Montgomery u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Colson Montgomery has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 7th-most-favorable of the day for mound aces.. Colson Montgomery pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's deepest RF fences today.. The Kansas City Royals infield defense projects as the best out of all the teams today.. Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Colson Montgomery in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+118)
Projection 2
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 park in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Bobby Witt Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
MIA
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Pete Crow-Armstrong o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-119)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Pete Crow-Armstrong has a great opportunity to go over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs at a very appealing price. The future NL MVP has gone over this prop 56.25% of the time when owning an elite Batters-Box rating this season, while recording a double 27% of the time and a home run 31.2% of the time. He draws Marlins right-hander Ryan Gusto, who has struggled against left-handed hitters recently. Over his last three games, lefties have posted a near-52% hard-hit rate and 22% barrel rate against Gusto. Crow-Armstrong has also posted a .667 SLG and .378 ISO over his last 10 games.
Total Hits
Nico Hoerner u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Nico Hoerner is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 15-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for pitchers.. Ryan Gusto will have the handedness advantage against Nico Hoerner today.. Nico Hoerner has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. This year, Nico Hoerner's 1.4% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 2nd percentile among his peers.
NYM
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Juan Soto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+410)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Let's start things off with a mispriced Juan Soto bomb at 5.1x, where the fair value is closer to 3.5x. The Rangers are likely to start Cody Bradford, who was demoted to a bulk-relief role after giving up 11 runs in three starts and 11-plus innings. The Rangers are desperate, sitting three games out of the Wild Card spot, and pushing that bullpen, combined with this pressure, is a good spot for Soto, who has seven hits over his last 19 plate appearances. The value is coming from the lefty-vs-lefty matchup, but Bradford's leash is not long. Sixty-five pitches could be in the cards, and maybe even fewer if he stumbles. It's an indoor game with the thermostat falling quickly.
Total Hits
Josh Jung u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Globe Life Field ranks as the #29 ballpark in baseball for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Nolan McLean will have the handedness advantage against Josh Jung today.. Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.. Josh Jung's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, decreasing from 18.3% to 12.8%.. Josh Jung's quickness has fallen off this year. His 26.61 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.74 ft/sec now.
AZ
@
COL
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total Home Runs (+410)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Here is another 5.1x home run that should have a fair value of 3.5x at Coors Field against the worst HR/9 pitcher on the slate. Carroll has been demoted to the fifth spot in the lineup due to a September slump, but he still has three dingers and an .826 OPS over his last 10 games. If that's a slump, I'm buying the dip. The wind is blowing out to his pull side, and a matchup against Mason Adams is a great thing at this price. Adams has allowed a homer in each of his five starts and has given up six homers in 23 innings, with a 3.0 HR/9 and 9.00 ERA at Coors. I would love three plate appearances against Mason, who lefties are hitting .341 against.
Total Bases
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. This contest is expected to have the 33rd-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
LAA
@
ATH
Wed, Sep 23 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Jose Siri o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 86°.. Batting from the opposite that Jeffrey Springs throws from, Jose Siri will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
Total Home Runs
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+425)
Projection 0.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Shea Langeliers is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 86°.
SD
@
LAD
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Moneyline
LAD (-214)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
It is very tough to see it being a Yoshinobu Yamamoto Day and want to back the San Diego Padres in this spot. The Padres are sending out left-hander Robbie Ray, who owns an 8.78 ERA, 5.43 xERA and 1.65 WHIP over his last three starts. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bats are gearing up for October, posting a 170 wRC+, .411 wOBA and .943 OPS over their last six games. With Yamamoto always being lights-out when he takes the mound, I’m having a tough time fading the Monstars of L.A. and will back the Dodgers to roll.
Total
o8.5 (+107)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Fully expecting the Dodgers’ offense to carry the run production in this matchup. Robbie Ray has struggled in his last few starts, and now he gets a Dodgers lineup that is heating up as October approaches. That’s a tough spot for the veteran lefty. The Padres have been swinging a hot bat, posting a 174 wRC+, .967 OPS and .259 ISO over their last six games. However, when it’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto day, I’m not putting much stock into San Diego’s recent offensive success. I’ll gladly take whatever the Padres can give us, but I expect Los Angeles to carry the load.
HOU
@
SEA
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+350)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Alvarez sports a third-ranked .311 ISO against right-handed pitchers among qualified hitters and has already homered off Seattle starter George Kirby earlier this season. Additionally, Kirby has allowed a massive 43.2% squared-up contact rate and 18.6% blast-contact rate to left-handed hitters during an active seven-start slump.
Total
o7.5 (-109)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This Over 7.5 is in play to -115 because Seattle starter George Kirby sports a confidence-shattering 5.32 xERA and 4.37 xFIP over his past seven starts, and Seattle faces an overworked Houston bullpen. The Astros have relied on relievers for 18 1/3 innings across the past four games, and they sport a concerning 4.41 xERA and 5.05 xFIP during the busy stretch.
LAA
@
SEA
Thu, Sep 24 • 9:40 PM ET
Moneyline
SEA (-204)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Mariners right-hander Bryan Woo has dominated Angels hitters in the past, limiting them to a .190 batting average and .442 OPS. Meanwhile, Grayson Rodriguez's struggles have continued, as he owns a 5.58 xERA and a hard-hit rate that ranks in the fourth percentile, according to Baseball Savant. Seattle is playable on the ML to -220.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
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If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
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Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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