Boston @ Kansas City Picks & Props

The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hurlers. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Bobby Witt Jr. will be at a massive disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in this game. Bobby Witt Jr. has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) but may find it hard to clear the game's deepest RF fences today. Bobby Witt Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 94.2-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 82.7-mph in the past week. Bobby Witt Jr.'s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (2.2° in the past 14 days) is considerably worse than his 8.8° seasonal angle.

The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hurlers. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Salvador Perez will be at a huge disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in this game. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Despite posting a .340 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Salvador Perez has been lucky given the .020 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .320.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. In the past week, Nick Sogard's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 100% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Masataka Yoshida has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have the upper hand in today's game.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Rafael Devers will hold the platoon advantage against Seth Lugo in today's game.

Michael Massey is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Michael Massey will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split. Extreme groundball bats like Michael Massey generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Dominic Smith will have an advantage in today's game. Dominic Smith has made notable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 9.6% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the past week. Dominic Smith has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.8-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 88.7-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Adam Frazier will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split. Adam Frazier will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.246) suggests that Adam Frazier has been unlucky this year with his .195 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Wilyer Abreu will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Seth Lugo today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vinnie Pasquantino in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Vinnie Pasquantino will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's game... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Kyle Isbel will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's game... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Isbel will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, David Hamilton will have an advantage in today's matchup. David Hamilton has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 5.5% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last 7 days. David Hamilton has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.3-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal EV of 87.9-mph.

As it relates to his BABIP skill, Jarren Duran is projected as the 10th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Batting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Jarren Duran will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

MJ Melendez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, MJ Melendez will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today. Extreme flyball hitters like MJ Melendez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #2 ballpark in the majors for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Hunter Renfroe will hold that advantage in today's game. Hunter Renfroe has shown impressive plate discipline this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile with a 1.87 K/BB rate.

Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #2 ballpark in the majors for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Among every team in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Freddy Fermin will hold that advantage today. Freddy Fermin has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.5-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.6-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 76th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Connor Wong is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #2 ballpark in the majors for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Sporting a .351 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Connor Wong is ranked in the 85th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #2 ballpark in the majors for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Ceddanne Rafaela's 20.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.1%. Ceddanne Rafaela and his 17.7° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 92nd percentile, among the highest in the majors this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #2 ballpark in the majors for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Maikel Garcia will hold that advantage in today's game. As it relates to his batting average, Maikel Garcia has suffered from bad luck this year. His .238 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .280.