Houston @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Cooper Criswell will hold the platoon advantage over Yainer Diaz in today's game... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Criswell's large platoon split. Extreme flyball bats like Yainer Diaz tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Josh Winckowski. Yainer Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Yainer Diaz has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 7.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last 7 days.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Cooper Criswell will hold the platoon advantage over Jeremy Pena today... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Criswell's large platoon split. Extreme groundball hitters like Jeremy Pena tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Josh Winckowski. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jeremy Pena in today's matchup. Jeremy Pena's average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 87.9-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 80.2-mph in the last week's worth of games.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Given Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Jose Altuve will be at a big disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate today. Jose Altuve will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Jose Altuve has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.8% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week. Jose Altuve has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.5-mph dropping to 80.8-mph in the last week's worth of games.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Cooper Criswell will have the handedness advantage against Alex Bregman in today's game... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Criswell's large platoon split. Alex Bregman will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Rafael Devers has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 14.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 7 days. Over the past 7 days, Rafael Devers's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 96.3 mph to 89.5 mph. Compared to his seasonal figure of 12.8°, Rafael Devers has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-0.6°) in the past two weeks' worth of games. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.358) may lead us to conclude that Rafael Devers has had positive variance on his side this year with his .400 actual wOBA.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Jarren Duran's launch angle of late (-0.5° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is significantly worse than his 8.5° seasonal angle. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jarren Duran's true offensive ability to be a .335, suggesting that he has had some very good luck this year given the .030 disparity between that figure and his actual .365 wOBA.

Fenway Park profiles as the #5 park in MLB for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate today at 87°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters. Nick Sogard pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Nick Sogard will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Fenway Park profiles as the #5 park in MLB for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all parks, Fenway Park's RF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate today at 87°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters. Batting from the opposite that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, David Hamilton will have an edge in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zachary Dezenzo in the 79th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in the game for right-handed batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate today at 87°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Masataka Yoshida has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Fenway Park profiles as the #5 park in MLB for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all parks, Fenway Park's RF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate today at 87°.

Fenway Park profiles as the #5 park in MLB for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate today at 87°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters. Dominic Smith will have the handedness advantage over Spencer Arrighetti today. Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Fenway Park profiles as the #5 park in MLB for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate today at 87°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters. Victor Caratini hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Victor Caratini has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 92.5-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph average.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Yordan Alvarez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. Yordan Alvarez's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (12.5°) is significantly lower than his 15.8° figure last season. In terms of his batting average, Yordan Alvarez has had positive variance on his side this year. His .302 figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .285.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park profiles as the #5 park in MLB for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate today at 87°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.

Chas McCormick's BABIP talent is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in the game for right-handed batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate today at 87°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters. Chas McCormick has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Connor Wong is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 8th-best park in the game for right-handed batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate today at 87°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.

Danny Jansen is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in the game for right-handed batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate today at 87°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters. Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 75th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in the game for right-handed batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate today at 87°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.

Mauricio Dubon's batting average skill is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in the game for right-handed batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate today at 87°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters. Mauricio Dubon has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in the game for right-handed batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate today at 87°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters. Ceddanne Rafaela has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Jon Singleton is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. Fenway Park profiles as the #5 park in MLB for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate today at 87°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters. Considering Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Jon Singleton will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.