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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 15, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.95 |
-230 
|
o8.5 -105 
|
-1.5 -135 
|
|
3.95 |
+200 
|
u8.5 +102 
|
+1.5 +120
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Yamamotos last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yamamotos last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yamamotos last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Lowders last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+255
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.51 |
+133
|
o8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -155
|
|
4.84 |
-144
|
u9.0 -120 
|
-1.5 +150
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 5-0 in Martins last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Cleveland
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Griffins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
o0.5+225
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.91 |
+200
|
o8.0 -105 
|
+1.5 -110
|
|
4.80 |
-220
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +100
|
Athletics
- Over is 3-0-2 in Perkins' last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 games as a road underdog.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Jaxs last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.16 |
-210
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 -120
|
|
3.87 |
+185
|
u7.5 -110
|
+1.5 +105
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Brewers are 7-1 in Misiorowskis last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Brewers are 6-1 in Misiorowskis last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Pirates last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+150)
o1.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.96 |
-210
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 -120
|
|
2.96 |
+185
|
u8.5 -110
|
+1.5 +110
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Sanchezs last 5 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Sanchezs last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Sanchezs last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Washington
- Over is 3-0-2 in Kents last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Kents last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Kents last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
+119
|
o8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.38 |
-134
|
u8.5 -108
|
-1.5 +155
|
Detroit
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 overall.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Toronto
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
o0.5+225
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.29 |
+113
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -188
|
|
4.70 |
-130
|
u8.5 -130
|
-1.5 +165
|
Baltimore
- Under is 6-0 in Bazs last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mets are 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.54 |
+120
|
o8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.88 |
-138
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +150
|
Atlanta
- Under is 6-0 in Perezs last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Perezs last 6 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 6-0 in Perezs last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 overall.
Chi. Cubs
- Cubs are 4-0 in Gausmans last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cubs last 8 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total RBIs (+332)
o0.5+332
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.29 |
-175
|
o7.5 -120
|
-1.5 -104
|
|
3.54 |
+150
|
u8.0 -114
|
+1.5 -115
|
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 6-0 in Frieds last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Minnesota
- Under is 5-0-1 in Obers last 6 home starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
o1.5+115
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.93 |
+140
|
o8.0 -117
|
+2.5 -250
|
|
5.01 |
-160
|
u8.5 -115
|
-2.5 +200
|
San Francisco
- Over is 7-0 in Giants last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Tidwells last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
St. Louis
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pallantes last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Cardinals last 9 during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Joshua Baez o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.48 |
+115
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
3.93 |
-115
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +176
|
Boston
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 games following a win.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rangers last 8 home games.
Top Projection
Roman Anthony o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.08 |
+140
|
o7.5 -121
|
+1.5 -155
|
|
4.83 |
-155
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +135
|
Kansas City
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 on grass.
- Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 4-0 in Browns last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+134)
o1.5+134
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.53 |
-188
|
o11.0 -110
|
-1.5 -125
|
|
5.84 |
+170
|
u11.5 -115
|
+1.5 +110
|
San Diego
- Padres are 8-0 in their last 8 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 road games.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 on grass.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+112)
o1.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.16 |
-165
|
o8.0 -105
|
-1.5 +100
|
|
4.16 |
+148
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -115
|
Seattle
- Over is 8-0 in Mariners last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Gilberts last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Gilberts last 4 starts vs. American League West.
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0 in Johnsons last 5 starts as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 home games.
- Under is 5-0 in Johnsons last 5 home starts.
- Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+221)
o0.5+221
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.71 |
+130
|
o8.0 -152
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
5.04 |
-150
|
u8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +145
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
Arizona
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in Sorokas last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.08 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.89 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.70 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.94 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Giants last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0 in Liberatores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.26 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.32 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 7-0 in Rodons last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Rodons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Under is 5-0 in Matthews' last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.05 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.81 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Detroit
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 overall.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in Monteros last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Toronto
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.33 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.82 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Athletics
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 games as a road underdog.
- are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.59 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.99 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 6-1 in Snells last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.68 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.54 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Jones' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.78 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.17 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Wheelers last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Phillies are 9-1 in Wheelers last 10 starts vs. National League East.
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 home starts.
- Nationals are 4-0 in Cavallis last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.38 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.29 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 9-0 in Bassitts last 9 road starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Mets last 6 interleague home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.23 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.77 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Atlanta
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Braves last 7 vs. National League Central.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
LAD
@
CIN
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kyle Tucker o0.5 Total Home Runs (+406)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 25%. Kyle Tucker is scorching hot, launching three homers over his last six games while posting a ridiculous .632 ISO. He's also recorded a 29.4% barrel rate over the last week, and both Lowder and Cincinnati's bullpen have allowed plenty of loud contact. Tucker is firmly on my radar tonight.
Total
o8.5 (-109)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 55%. Cincinnati's bullpen has been a major liability, allowing 2.08 HR/9 with a 5.72 FIP over the last week, while Rhett Lowder is also struggling. That's a dangerous combination against a Dodgers lineup sporting a 126 wRC+ and .237 ISO over its last six games. Cincinnati should contribute enough to help push this Over.
CHW
@
CLE
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total Home Runs (+440)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Vargas boasts a high-end .290 ISO against lefties, and Guardians starter Foster Griffin has allowed a 37.9% hard-hit rate to right-handed hitters this season. I also value Vargas snapping out of a 6-for-33 slump to go alongside a .410 OPS with his two-run homer in the series opener last night.
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
With ideal hitting conditions forecast at Progressive Field tonight, this Over has my attention to 54%. Guardians starter Foster Griffin sports a 5.18 xERA and 4.33 xFIP while allowing a healthy 35.8% hard-hit rate through his seven starts with the club, and the White Sox rank eighth in xwOBA across the past 30 days. Additionally, Chicago will have Davis Martin throwing bulk innings, and he's posted a 4.74 xERA and 5.46 xFIP across his two starts since returning from a finger blister.
ATH
@
TB
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total Home Runs (+271)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Junior Caminero finds himself in another favorable spot against Athletics right-hander Jack Perkins. Through 40 elite ratings this season, Caminero has homered over 25% of the time. He has also been swinging a hot bat lately, posting a .538 SLG and .282 ISO over his last 10 games, alongside a near 50% hard-contact rate and 15.2% barrel rate. Perkins has struggled against right-handed hitters recently, with his last 30 faced generating a 15% barrel rate, 70% elevation rate and .517 xSLG.
Total Home Runs
Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
Projection 0.15
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Cedric Mullins ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Tropicana Field projects as the #1 field in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Cedric Mullins will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jack Perkins today.. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Cedric Mullins will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
MIL
@
PIT
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+220)
Projection 1.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage over Jacob Misiorowski in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Using Statcast metrics, Brandon Lowe is in the 87th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 29.300.
Total RBIs
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+270)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today.. Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage over Jacob Misiorowski in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
PHI
@
WAS
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:45 PM ET
Spread
PHI -1.5 (-123)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I love this price at 54%, and would play the Phillies up to 58%. Cristopher Sanchez has absolutely owned this Nationals team throughout his career, limiting them to a .225 xBA and .276 xwOBA across 109 plate appearances - a sample size that includes a 0-for-11 mark from James Woods. We'll take that. On the other side is the Nats' No. 8 prospect, Jackson Kent, who's had a rough rookie campaign so far, coming off a three-inning, eight-hit, five-earned-run outing against the San Diego Padres. His 5.49 xERA suggests this loaded Phillies lineup should be able to ambush the 23-year-old early.
Spread
PHI -1.5 (-126)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Cristopher Sanchez has been one of baseball’s most reliable starters this season, posting a 2.79 ERA with 210 strikeouts, and he gets an excellent matchup against Washington. Nationals starter Jackson Kent owns a 6.59 ERA, giving Philadelphia a significant pitching advantage before factoring in the superior lineup. At -126, I’d rather lay the 1.5 runs than pay the inflated moneyline price.
DET
@
TOR
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:07 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+600)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Can you imagine getting +600 on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit a home run just a year ago? Of course he's deserving of that price now, but after hitting his first bomb at home two nights ago, I'm going back to the well here. He's just one game removed from a 4-for-5 performance at the dish, and with the Blue Jays' season hanging in the balance, look for him to get to Drew Anderson - his 8.4% barrel rate is among the worst in baseball.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Kazuma Okamoto o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+105)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Kazuma Okamoto has been playing the best baseball of his rookie season with the Toronto Blue Jays' playoff dreams hanging in the balance. He's rocking a 1.115 OPS to go with five homers in September, which is absolutely absurd, and over his last 30 games, Okamoto is slashing .280/.361/.617 (.977 OPS) with nine homers and 18 RBI. He's cashed this play in five of his last seven games.
His 13.9% barrel rate is in the 91st percentile across all qualified hitters this season, too; suffice it to say, he should be able to run into one today against a contact pitcher like Drew Anderson.
BAL
@
NYM
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Pete Alonso o0.5 Total Home Runs (+286)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Pete Alonso is my favorite home run look against Sean Manaea and the Mets tonight. While many bettors will immediately target Coby Mayo because Manaea is a lefty, Alonso has been absolutely crushing southpaws lately. Over his last 30 at-bats against left-handed pitching, he owns a .565 SLG and .261 ISO while generating a hard-hit rate above 76% and a barrel rate over 23%. That power profile lines up perfectly with Manaea’s recent struggles against right-handed hitters. Over his last 30 faced, righties have posted a .408 xBA, .788 xSLG, and .307 ISO. Alonso is the Orioles’ power bat to target tonight.
Total RBIs
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Juan Soto will have an edge in today's matchup.. Juan Soto hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game.
ATL
@
CHC
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
CHC (-135)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Cubs have lit up lefties this season with a league-high wOBA and ISO, and they draw susceptible Braves southpaw Martin Perez tonight, so I like the Cubbies moneyline to 59%. Perez is winless across his past five starts with an alarming 5.77 xERA and 5.13 xFIP, and even with the Chicago lineup dropping to a 10th-ranked xwOBA and 15th-ranked wOBA in September, the Cubs are still well above Atlanta’s respective. 26th- and 23rd-ranked marks. As a result, I’m confident in Chicago veteran Kevin Gausman navigating the Atlanta lineup just well enough to bring home the win given his 4.17 xERA and 3.32 xFIP are well below his 5.31 ERA since joining the North Siders.
Walks Allowed
Martin Perez o1.5 Walks Allowed (-171)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Martin Perez has been a walk machine over his last five games, posting a walk rate north of 11%, and now draws a Cubs lineup that ranks second in walk rate over its last 12 games. Chicago owns an 11.2% walk rate during that span, which climbs to 13% against left-handed pitchers. Six Cubs hitters have posted a walk rate of at least 8.7% over their last 10 games, with five reaching 14.3% or higher. On Batters-Box, Perez has allowed 2+ walks in 68.18% of 22 poorly rated matchups. Even at -171, the matchup gives us a solid edge.
NYY
@
MIN
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Luis Garcia Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Luis Garcia Jr. finds himself in a strong spot against Bailey Ober tonight. The Yankees first baseman enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box and clears nearly 92% of Ober's arsenal. Garcia Jr. has been one of the hottest hitters in New York's lineup, sporting a .500 SLG, .206 ISO, a hard-hit rate over 57% and a barrel rate near 20%. The last 60 left-handed hitters Ober has faced are generating a nearly 50% hard-hit rate, while owning a .342 xBA, .562 xSLG and .349 xwOBA.
Total Home Runs
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total Home Runs (+271)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Run it back with the captain! Aaron Judge is once again my favorite home run look in this matchup against Bailey Ober. The Minnesota right-hander has been crushed by right-handed hitters, who have posted a 45.5% hard-hit rate, 13.6% barrel rate and 72.8% elevation rate over their last 60 matchups. Those hitters also own a .365 xBA and .573 xSLG. Judge enters with the highest Batters-Box rating in this matchup and has homered nearly 30% of the time across 165 games when rated elite over the last three seasons. Trust the captain to get hot and stay hot.
SF
@
STL
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Masyn Winn o0.5 Total RBIs (+275)
Projection 0.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all parks.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today's game.. In the past 7 days, Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.2-mph over the course of the season to 97.4-mph lately.
Total RBIs
Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all parks.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Ivan Herrera hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
BOS
@
TEX
Tue, Sep 15 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Willson Contreras u1.5 Total Bases (-165)
Projection 0.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #1 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing offensive stats to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all parks are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Willson Contreras today.
Total Bases
Roman Anthony o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony as the 15th-best hitter in the game as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Roman Anthony is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Extreme groundball batters like Roman Anthony are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cody Bradford.. Over the last 14 days, Roman Anthony has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 12.5% to 21.2%.
KC
@
HOU
Tue, Sep 15 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros.. Salvador Perez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 93.4-mph over the past week.. Over the last week, Salvador Perez's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.4%.
Total Bases
Isaac Paredes u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. The #6 field in the game for suppressing offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-highest fences in MLB.. Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -5° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
SD
@
COL
Tue, Sep 15 • 8:40 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Kyle Freeland o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-128)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The Padres are in a prime spot to keep mashing against Kyle Freeland, who has struggled mightily at home this season. Freeland owns a 5.10 ERA and 1.48 WHIP at Coors Field while allowing a near-10% barrel rate to opposing hitters. San Diego's lineup has been red-hot, posting a 143 wRC+, .852 OPS and .372 wOBA over its last six games. Batters-Box also gives Freeland the worst pitcher rating on the slate, with seven elite-rated hitters and another carrying a strong rating. With the Padres rolling offensively, they should be able to produce 3+ runs on Freeland.
Total Home Runs
Jackson Merrill o0.5 Total Home Runs (+419)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 25%. Jackson Merrill is seeing the ball extremely well, combining three homers over the last week with elite contact quality. His 60.9% hard-hit rate and 26.1% barrel rate during that stretch jump off the page, and both Freeland and Colorado’s bullpen have been vulnerable to the long ball.
SEA
@
LAA
Tue, Sep 15 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 8th-best hitter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. High humidity has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest humidity on the slate today at 77%.. Among every team today, the worst infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as Major League Baseball's 4th-best home run batter.. Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Ryan Johnson.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the Los Angeles Angels.
MIA
@
AZ
Tue, Sep 15 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Otto Lopez o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez as the 9th-best hitter in the majors when assessing his batting average ability.. Otto Lopez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation in the league, which often leads to higher offensive output.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.
Total RBIs
Xavier Edwards o0.5 Total RBIs (+244)
Projection 0.45
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Xavier Edwards is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 3rd-best park in baseball for boosting offensive stats to lefties.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The switch-hitting Xavier Edwards will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Michael Soroka.. Xavier Edwards has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 89.3-mph average to last year's 85.6-mph mark.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+124)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitters such as Aaron Judge with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
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