MLB Picks

Cold weather and two ground-ball pitchers plus Cleveland’s top 10 bullpen scream low-scoring.

The Under has hit in four of the last five meetings, and we’ll follow this trend tonight. 

 

Kansas City Royals starter Michael Wacha tossed six scoreless innings in Atlanta and now draws a favorable matchup against a struggling Cleveland Guardians lineup. Cleveland is scoring just three runs per game over its last five, and Wacha has handled this group well historically, holding them to a .632 OPS across 92 at-bats.

I’m willing to dip below +400 to fade Germán Márquez, who projects as the weakest starter on the slate and is expected to allow the most runs by a wide margin. He lasted just nine outs in his last start, giving up eight hits and two homers, and continues to profile as an extreme fly-ball pitcher with poor Pull Air% metrics over the past couple of seasons. While conditions are cold in most parks, PNC Park at least has 14 mph winds blowing out to center, boosting the power environment. Oneil Cruz should see plenty of opportunities hitting leadoff, with a strong chance at five plate appearances. He went deep for his fourth homer yesterday and has handled lefties well in a small sample this year, posting a 2.091 OPS. Cruz also ranks among the league leaders in barrels per plate appearance and average exit velocity, giving him legitimate top-10 home run upside if this form continues.

When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts German Marquez in the 4th percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects German Marquez to have a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.. The #7 ballpark in the game for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Otto Lopez is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 15° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Otto Lopez will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Williamson today.. Otto Lopez hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Jakob Marsee is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 15° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Jakob Marsee hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Jakob Marsee will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.289) suggests that Jakob Marsee has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .267 actual batting average.

Brayan Bello is generally a reliable innings-eater, and he excels at keeping the ball in the park. With very frigid temperatures expected in Boston, it should be even tougher for Milwaukee to hit for power.

The Brewers have piled up the runs, but there are some concerns with their batted-ball profile. They rank last in line drive rate and have posted the highest ground ball rate against righties.

A league-high .349 batting average on balls put in play makes them look better than they are. That’s an unsustainably high number, and the bats could come down to earth in the cold Boston weather.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia Jr. in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Luis Garcia Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest RF dimensions among all stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Luis Garcia Jr. will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Luis Garcia Jr. will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Ivan Herrera has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.. Utilizing Statcast data, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 92nd percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .367.. Posting a .288 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Ivan Herrera is positioned in the 92nd percentile.

Rogers Centre is one of the better power environments on today’s slate, ranking among the top HR parks by THE BAT. With the Los Angeles Dodgers in town — a lineup leading MLB in home runs per game (1.78) — this is a strong spot to target the HR market. Max Scherzer is still generating plenty of fly balls, and the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen has been heavily taxed, ranking near the top of the league in innings pitched. The Dodgers also bring familiarity against both Scherzer and this bullpen. Andy Pages stands out as a value option, likely hitting seventh and entered Sunday on a five-game multi-hit streak. He’s slugging .794 and just went 7-for-13 with 14 total bases and two home runs in a series in Washington. While bigger names will draw attention, the price is the difference. Rather than laying a short number on Shohei Ohtani, Pages at +450 or better is the preferred play in this matchup.

When assessing his home run ability, Kazuma Okamoto ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kazuma Okamoto is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for righty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Rogers Centre has the 3rd-shallowest in Major League Baseball.. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 15° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.

Munetaka Murakami projects as the 2nd-best home run hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Munetaka Murakami is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The #5 stadium in the majors for boosting offensive stats to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest among all major league parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 13.8-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The #5 stadium in the game for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 13.8-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Miguel Vargas pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Byron Buxton projects as the 11th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Byron Buxton is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. Target Field ranks as the #5 field in the game for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Byron Buxton will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Byron Buxton has been lifting the ball well recently, notching a 29.8° launch angle in the last two weeks.

When estimating his home run skill, Kerry Carpenter ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kerry Carpenter is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. Target Field ranks as the #5 field in the game for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kerry Carpenter will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joe Ryan in today's matchup... and moreover, Ryan has a large platoon split.. The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the 6th-weakest out of every team today.

Gilbert had a 4.41 ERA against the Rangers last season, giving up eight earned across three starts. Not terrible, but not elite, either. While deGrom’s ERA was north of five against the Mariners in 2025, Seattle’s offense is struggling, and its core pieces have yet to produce. 

While deGrom did allow three earned in 4.2 innings of work in his season debut, he’s held Seattle’s lineup to a .231 average across 78 at-bats. The M’s are hitting .193 against right-handed pitchers. Gilbert, meanwhile, has been getting hit around. He sports a 6.75 ERA already. Gilbert’s underlying metrics suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky early (2.82 FIP vs 6.75 ERA), but the inflated BABIP (.407) also shows he’s allowing a ton of hard contact — not just bad luck.

The Rockies cashed a parlay for me yesterday, and I wasn’t expecting to back them again on the moneyline—but here we are. Go Rockies! The Houston Astros are sending Cody Bolton out for his first career start due to Hunter Brown’s injury. Even if Bolton manages to navigate Coors Field, he’s a career reliever, which means Houston will likely lean heavily on its bullpen—just one day after playing a 10-inning game against the Athletics in Sacramento. This sets up as a tough scheduling spot for the Astros, and the price on Colorado feels too strong to pass up. The Rockies are trading at +164 on the moneyline, but I make them closer to a +125 underdog.

When estimating his home run ability, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mickey Moniak is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Coors Field profiles as the #1 stadium in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.

Chris Sale and Jose Soriano have combined to allow one total run over 24 innings to start this season. The peripherals for both starters look solid, and the Angels have simply not fielded a consistently productive offense (84 wRC+). 

As it relates to his home run skill, Jorge Soler ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jorge Soler is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Angel Stadium profiles as the #7 field in the game for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all parks, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects for the 3rd-best hitting conditions on the slate today.

These teams have played vastly different schedules to start the year, creating value on the home team.

The Giants are just 3-7 but have faced three quality teams (Yankees, Padres, Mets) and will be playing their fifth consecutive game at home. 

Philadelphia is 5-4, but its series wins came against two of the worst teams in the league (Rockies and Nationals). It’s not an ideal travel spot, coming off an uninspiring 1-4 loss in Colorado. 

There’s too much talent and past production in San Francisco’s lineup for these results to hold for too long, but right now they paint an undeniable picture — this lineup is riding the struggle bus. 

The Giants are 23 points worse in wRC+ (45) and 58 points worse in wOBA (.229) against RHP than any other team. They’ve plated three or fewer runs in eight of their 10 games. 

Both starting pitchers had a 117 Pitching+ in their respective debuts, and both bullpens are due for positive regression with top-12 SIERA marks but bottom-10 ERAs.