Chicago @ Houston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst ballpark in the majors for righty BABIP. Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -11° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Yainer Diaz has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's game. Yainer Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 21.6% to 11.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Luis Robert is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. In MLB, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Luis Robert has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 98-mph in the past 7 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Luis Robert's true offensive skill to be a .323, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .044 difference between that figure and his actual .279 wOBA.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). When it comes to his batting average, Miguel Vargas has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .195 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .217. When it comes to plate discipline, Miguel Vargas's skill is quite strong, putting up a 1.76 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 87th percentile.

Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all parks. Batting from the opposite that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, Dominic Fletcher will have an edge today. Ranking in the 88th percentile, Dominic Fletcher sports a .338 BABIP since the start of last season.

In MLB, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Korey Lee has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 8% seasonal rate to 20% in the past week's worth of games. Korey Lee has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 104.1-mph average in the last week to his seasonal average of 91.4-mph. Over the last 14 days, Korey Lee's 27.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.9%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.239) suggests that Korey Lee has experienced some negative variance this year with his .217 actual batting average.

Riley Baldwin has made notable gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.1% seasonal rate to 15.4% in the past week's worth of games. Riley Baldwin's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (0.5° in the last 7 days) is significantly worse than his 20.4° seasonal figure.

Nicky Lopez is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Nicky Lopez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Spencer Arrighetti today. Nicky Lopez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Hitters such as Nicky Lopez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Spencer Arrighetti who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. In the past 14 days, Nicky Lopez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.7-mph over the course of the season to 90.7-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Andrew Benintendi is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, Andrew Benintendi will have an edge today. Last year, Andrew Benintendi had an average launch angle of 13.4° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 17.8°. Andrew Benintendi's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (21.9° in the last 14 days) is significantly higher than his 17.8° seasonal mark.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all parks. Gavin Sheets will have the handedness advantage against Spencer Arrighetti in today's game. In the past 14 days, Gavin Sheets has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 22.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 9.3°. Gavin Sheets's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 36.5% to 44.6%.

Zachary Dezenzo's BABIP talent is projected in the 78th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). In MLB, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Zachary Dezenzo will have the upper hand today. Zachary Dezenzo will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. The standard deviation of Zachary Dezenzo's launch angle has been very consistent lately (31° over the last 14 days), which is a proxy for reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Andrew Vaughn is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. In the last week, Andrew Vaughn's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.5% up to 16.7%. Andrew Vaughn's launch angle this year (16.8°) is quite a bit higher than his 11.1° mark last season. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.8°, Andrew Vaughn has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 22.4° figure in the past two weeks.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game. Yordan Alvarez has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 14.4% seasonal rate to 20% in the past 7 days. Yordan Alvarez has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.8-mph average over the last week to his seasonal EV of 93.8-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Jose Altuve will hold the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's matchup. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. In MLB, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Jeremy Pena will hold the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet today. Jeremy Pena will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 75th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. In MLB, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Jake Meyers will hold the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's game. Jake Meyers will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Compared to last year, Jake Meyers has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 40% to 47.1% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Alex Bregman will hold the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today's game. Alex Bregman has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 6% seasonal rate to 21.7% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Mauricio Dubon will hold the platoon advantage over Garrett Crochet in today's matchup. Mauricio Dubon will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Victor Caratini is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage in today's game. This season, Victor Caratini has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 92.5 mph compared to last year's 88.3 mph mark. Compared to last season, Victor Caratini has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 8.8% to 19.1% this season. Utilizing Statcast data, Victor Caratini grades out in the 92nd percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .285.

Chas McCormick's BABIP skill is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Chas McCormick will hold the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Chas McCormick will hold that advantage today. Chas McCormick has been unlucky this year, notching a .247 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .310 — a .063 disparity.