Toronto @ Boston Picks & Props

Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense. Brayan Bello will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alejandro Kirk in today's matchup... and it's a particular mismatch considering Bello's large platoon split. Extreme groundball batters like Alejandro Kirk tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Alejandro Kirk will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in this game. Extreme flyball hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Over the past 7 days, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 95.4 mph to 84.9 mph.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, George Springer will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in this game. George Springer will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Over the past week, George Springer's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.2%. In notching a .244 BABIP this year, George Springer is positioned in the 7th percentile.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense. Jarren Duran has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .371 rate is a good deal higher than his .349 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Daulton Varsho is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. The #6 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Daulton Varsho will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Daulton Varsho may have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP. Daulton Varsho pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Horwitz in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Spencer Horwitz is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The #6 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Spencer Horwitz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Bello has a large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Spencer Horwitz stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Loperfido in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The #6 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Joey Loperfido will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's game... and the cherry on top, Bello has a large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joey Loperfido can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Joey Loperfido hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best field in baseball for RHB BABIP. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences in the league. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage today. With a .345 BABIP this year, Connor Wong has performed in the 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Triston Casas is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. The #6 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Triston Casas will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's game. Triston Casas hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Addison Barger is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The #6 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the shallowest. Addison Barger will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today... and the cherry on top, Bello has a large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Addison Barger can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best field in baseball for RHB BABIP. Romy Gonzalez has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Romy Gonzalez will hold that advantage today. Sporting a .351 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Romy Gonzalez is positioned in the 91st percentile for offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Wagner in the 75th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. The #6 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the shallowest. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Will Wagner will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Will Wagner is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. The #6 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the shallowest. Masataka Yoshida will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt today. Masataka Yoshida will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

David Hamilton has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. The #6 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the shallowest. David Hamilton will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt today. David Hamilton will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best field in baseball for RHB BABIP. Ernie Clement pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the weakest out of every team playing today. Ernie Clement has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 3.7% seasonal rate to 9.1% over the past two weeks.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best field in baseball for RHB BABIP. Tyler O'Neill pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Tyler O'Neill will hold that advantage today.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP talent is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best field in baseball for RHB BABIP. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences in the league. Ceddanne Rafaela will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Ceddanne Rafaela has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph to 92.2-mph in the last two weeks.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. The #6 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Chris Bassitt throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an advantage today. Wilyer Abreu hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

Danny Jansen has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.