Seattle @ St. Louis props

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Jose Fermin will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jose Fermin has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season's 28.21 ft/sec to 29.01 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jose Fermin has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .245 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .303.

Hitting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Josh Rojas will have an advantage in today's matchup. Josh Rojas's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (16.8°) is significantly higher than his 10.5° mark last year. Josh Rojas's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, going from 46.7% on the season to 64.7% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate today. Miles Mikolas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Julio Rodriguez today. Julio Rodriguez has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and will be challenged by the game's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 5th-strongest among all the teams playing today. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Julio Rodriguez in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.P. Crawford in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. J.P. Crawford will hold the platoon advantage over Miles Mikolas in today's game. J.P. Crawford hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. J.P. Crawford has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .194 BA is quite a bit lower than his .240 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. J.P. Crawford has exhibited strong plate discipline this year, checking in at the 86th percentile with a 1.77 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 85th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Luke Raley has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (54% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Luke Raley will have an advantage in today's matchup. Luke Raley hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Luke Raley has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 11.1% seasonal rate to 27.8% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Paul Goldschmidt will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Paul Goldschmidt has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10.5% seasonal rate to 20% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Paul Goldschmidt has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph to 100.9-mph over the last 7 days.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Randy Arozarena hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In the past 7 days, Randy Arozarena's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.8-mph over the course of the season to 97.6-mph in recent games. Randy Arozarena has been unlucky this year, compiling a .320 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .021 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage over Luis Castillo today... and even better, Castillo has a large platoon split. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Masyn Winn is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage today. Masyn Winn has put up a .275 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Checking in at the 81st percentile, Masyn Winn sits with a .271 batting average this year.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Nolan Arenado will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. In the last week, Nolan Arenado's 73.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.2%.

Ivan Herrera's BABIP talent is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ivan Herrera hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Ivan Herrera will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Ivan Herrera has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 90.8-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 88.8-mph figure. Ivan Herrera has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .320 rate is considerably lower than his .346 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 86th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Jordan Walker's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.1-mph over the course of the season to 98.2-mph lately. Compared to last year, Jordan Walker has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 12.3% to 16.7% this season.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jorge Polanco ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jorge Polanco's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (30.4° over the past 14 days) is a considerable increase over his 20.7° seasonal mark. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Jorge Polanco's maximum exit velocity (a good indicator of recent form and raw power) has been 110.1-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in the game. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Polanco has had some very poor luck this year. His .283 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .324.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. Because of Luis Castillo's large platoon split, Alec Burleson will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Over the past 7 days, Alec Burleson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.2% up to 13.3%.

This season, Mitch Garver has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 94.3 mph compared to last year's 91.4 mph mark. Mitch Garver has been unlucky this year, posting a .276 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .036 disparity. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Mitch Garver ranks in the 88th percentile with a 18.3° launch angle, which is among the steepest angles in the league.

Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Cal Raleigh has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .314 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .339 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Cal Raleigh's 16% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) is in the 97th percentile this year.

Victor Robles is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game. In notching a .344 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Victor Robles finds himself in the 88th percentile. Checking in at the 93rd percentile, Victor Robles sports a .292 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Brendan Donovan is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. Given Luis Castillo's large platoon split, Brendan Donovan will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Brendan Donovan will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Brendan Donovan has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.2-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 88.4-mph average.

Justin Turner is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Justin Turner has exhibited strong plate discipline this year, grading out in the 91st percentile with a 1.6 K/BB rate.