Pittsburgh @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Hitting from the same side that Erick Fedde throws from, Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be at a disadvantage in today's game. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-deepest RF fences today. Among every team today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Isiah Kiner-Falefa in today's matchup. Isiah Kiner-Falefa's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 88.8-mph average last season has lowered to 85.6-mph.

10% of the time that Alec Burleson has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter. In today's matchup, Alec Burleson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.6% rate (80th percentile). Compared to his seasonal mark of 13.7°, Alec Burleson has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (3.2°) in the past two weeks.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-most fair ground among all stadiums — generally bad for dingers. Luis Ortiz will have the handedness advantage over Masyn Winn today... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Ortiz's huge platoon split. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Masyn Winn's true offensive ability to be a .291, suggesting that he has had some very good luck this year given the .025 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .316 wOBA. Masyn Winn's 87.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable metric to measure power) is in the 6th percentile this year.

Busch Stadium has the 2nd-deepest right field dimensions in the majors. Among every team today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Bryan Reynolds today. Bryan Reynolds's launch angle recently (4.1° in the past 14 days) is a significant dropoff from his 9° seasonal figure. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Bryan Reynolds ranks in just the 14th percentile with a 9° launch angle, which is one of the most groundball-inducing angles in MLB.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Bryan De La Cruz has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.7-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 89.6-mph figure. Bryan De La Cruz's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (16.6°) is a considerable increase over his 12.3° mark last season. Despite posting a .282 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bryan De La Cruz has been unlucky given the .029 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .311.

The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team in action today, the 9th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pedro Pages will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the last two weeks, Pedro Pages's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.7-mph over the course of the season to 93.4-mph in recent games. Over the past two weeks, Pedro Pages's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Given Luis Ortiz's huge platoon split, Brendan Donovan will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. Among every team in action today, the 9th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew McCutchen is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Andrew McCutchen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Andrew McCutchen has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 6.8% rate last year to 12.8% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jared Triolo has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 100.2-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 90.6-mph. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jared Triolo has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 21.1° compared to his seasonal mark of 7.3°. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.309) may lead us to conclude that Jared Triolo has been unlucky this year with his .279 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Paul Goldschmidt is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team in action today, the 9th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage in today's game.

As it relates to his BABIP skill, Oneil Cruz is projected as the 19th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Oneil Cruz is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an advantage in today's matchup. Oneil Cruz has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.4-mph to 97.5-mph over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage against Luis Ortiz in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Ortiz has a huge platoon split. Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Among every team in action today, the 9th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Rowdy Tellez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have an edge today. Rowdy Tellez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Rowdy Tellez has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 8.3% seasonal rate to 18.8% in the last 14 days.

Joey Bart is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Joey Bart has notched a .347 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 89th percentile. Grading out in the 77th percentile, Joey Bart has posted a .257 batting average this year.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team in action today, the 9th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Nolan Arenado has displayed strong plate discipline this year, ranking in the 76th percentile with a 2.08 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 85th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among every team in action today, the 9th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage in today's game.

The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Yasmani Grandal's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 91.1-mph now compared to just 87.9-mph then. Sporting a 2.05 K/BB rate this year, Yasmani Grandal has shown favorable plate discipline, ranking in the 81st percentile.