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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 22, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.35 |
+112 
|
o6.5 -150 
|
+1.5 -205
|
|
4.44 |
-125 
|
u7.5 -138 
|
-1.5 +176
|
Tampa Bay
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rasmussens last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rasmussens last 5 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 during game 1 of a series.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 5-0 in Rodons last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.11 |
+105 
|
o7.5 -113 
|
+1.5 -200 
|
|
4.14 |
-117
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +175
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Scherzers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Bassitts last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Nathan Lukes o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
o0.5+265
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.87 |
+136
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -159
|
|
4.10 |
-155
|
u8.5 -113
|
-1.5 +146
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Kents last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Kents last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Detroit
- Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 home games.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Abimelec Ortiz u0.5 Total Hits (+110)
u0.5+115
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.54 |
+120
|
o7.0 -124 
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.24 |
-135
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
Philadelphia
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Wheelers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Wheelers last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Wheelers last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.97 |
+130
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.18 |
-145
|
u7.5 -124
|
-1.5 +158
|
St. Louis
- Cardinals are 6-0 in Pallantes last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a favorite.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
o0.5+218
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.62 |
+110
|
o6.5 -125
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
3.60 |
-125
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +176
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Guardians last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Messicks last 5 starts as a road underdog.
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0 in Red Sox last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Jahmai Jones o0.5 Total RBIs (+295)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.21 |
+116
|
o6.5 -120
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
|
3.71 |
-130
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +173
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 vs. American League East.
- Rays are 9-0 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 road starts.
- Rays are 4-0 in Rasmussens last 4 starts on grass.
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Top Projection
Max Fried o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+130)
o4.5-150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.64 |
+160
|
o9.5 +106
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
5.06 |
-184
|
u9.5 -120
|
-1.5 +116
|
Cincinnati
- Reds are 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Williamsons last 4 starts as a road underdog.
Atlanta
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 overall.
Top Projection
Matt McLain o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+165)
o1.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.56 |
-117
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +149
|
|
4.04 |
+100
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -170
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in Kays last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Lynch IVs last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Royals are 4-0 in Lynch IVs last 4 starts as an underdog.
Top Projection
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.78 |
+181
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -122
|
|
3.56 |
-210
|
u6.5 +100
|
-1.5 +112
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Junks last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games following a win.
Top Projection
Janson Junk o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+137)
o1.5-525
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.31 |
+125
|
o7.5 -117
|
+1.5 -173
|
|
4.45 |
-140
|
u8.0 -118
|
-1.5 +155
|
NY Mets
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Texas
- Over is 6-0-1 in Rangers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
MacKenzie Gore o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+121)
o3.5-160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.98 |
-188
|
o10.5 -125
|
-1.5 -120
|
|
4.87 |
+163
|
u11.0 -115
|
+1.5 +105
|
Arizona
- Under is 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 road games.
- Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Sorokas last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Sorokas last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
Colorado
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 vs. National League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Kyle Freeland o2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+108)
o2.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.96 |
+130
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.40 |
-143
|
u7.5 -104
|
-1.5 +146
|
Houston
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Javiers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Javiers last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Seattle
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Gilberts last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
o1.5+130
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.26 |
-107
|
o9.5 +101
|
-1.5 +152
|
|
4.90 |
-108
|
u9.5 -115
|
+1.5 -175
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Kikuchis last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Angels last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kikuchis last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Athletics
- Under is 4-0 in Bassos last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 10-1 in last 11 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
o0.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
-130
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
3.25 |
+115
|
u7.5 -102
|
+1.5 -152
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Bradleys last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Bradleys last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Bradleys last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
San Francisco
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Marcelo Mayer u0.5 Total Hits (+155)
u0.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
+105
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -205
|
|
4.76 |
-118
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +165
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 vs. National League West.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
o1.5+196
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Hits
Ryan Vilade u0.5 Total Hits (-105)
Projection 0.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 4th-worst ballpark in the league for righty BABIP.. Yankee Stadium's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for mound aces.. Ryan Vilade hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's game.
Total Bases
Jonathan Aranda o1.5 Total Bases (+194)
Projection 1.34
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Yankee Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) in MLB.. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.3°, Jonathan Aranda has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 24° mark in the past 7 days.. Jonathan Aranda has compiled a .369 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 93rd percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
TOR
@
BAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:35 PM ET
Total Bases
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 15th-best hitter in the game.. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most humidity of the day (90%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Pete Alonso has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Pete Alonso will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.
Total RBIs
Nathan Lukes o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
Projection 0.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Nathan Lukes is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most humidity of the day (90%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Because of Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Nathan Lukes will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Nathan Lukes has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 2.8% seasonal rate to 9.1% over the past week.
WAS
@
DET
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Riley Greene u0.5 Total Hits (+175)
Projection 0.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Comerica Park projects as the #22 venue in the game for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 2nd-deepest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Comerica Park.. The weather report calls for the 5th-most suitable pitching conditions on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Jackson Kent will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Riley Greene today.. Riley Greene's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 21.1% to 16.9%.
Total Hits
John Peck u0.5 Total Hits (-105)
Projection 0.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
John Peck is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today.. The #9 stadium in MLB for suppressing base hits to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Comerica Park.. The weather report calls for the 5th-most suitable pitching conditions on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. John Peck has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. John Peck has been cold of late, posting a .261 wOBA in the last two weeks.
MIL
@
PHI
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+217)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 10th-best batter in the league.. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #9 park in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage against Dustin May in today's game.. Bryce Harper has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Jackson Chourio o0.5 Total RBIs (+237)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his batting average ability, Jackson Chourio is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jackson Chourio is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #9 park in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield among all major league parks — generally good for homers.. Jackson Chourio has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last year's 89.3-mph EV.
STL
@
PIT
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-106)
Projection 2.03
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 90th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles PNC Park as the 3rd-best park in baseball for LHB BABIP.. Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an edge today.. Brandon Lowe has a ton of pop (90th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (27.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante is a pitch-to-contact type (25th percentile K%) — great news for Lowe.
Strikeouts Thrown
Jared Jones u5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+106)
Projection 5.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jared Jones is projected to throw 82 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers on the slate.. PNC Park profiles as the #25 stadium in Major League Baseball for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Jared Jones has had some very good luck with his strikeouts this year, notching a 10.82 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.36 — a 0.46 K/9 gap.
CLE
@
BOS
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jahmai Jones o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
Projection 0.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jahmai Jones ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jahmai Jones is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in MLB for run-scoring.. Batting from the opposite that Parker Messick throws from, Jahmai Jones will have an edge in today's matchup.. Jahmai Jones pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today.
Total RBIs
Angel Martinez o0.5 Total RBIs (+246)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Angel Martinez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in MLB for run-scoring.. The switch-hitting Angel Martinez will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Payton Tolle.. Angel Martinez pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.1% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Angel Martinez has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 7.9% seasonal rate to 13% in the past two weeks' worth of games.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:05 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Max Fried o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+130)
Projection 5.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Max Fried in the 79th percentile among all SPs in the majors.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Fried to throw 98 pitches in today's outing (most of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Austin Wells, the Yankees's expected catcher today, grades out as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to less offense.. Considering that groundball batters struggle against groundball pitchers, Max Fried (49.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 3 GB hitters in the opposing club's projected offense.
CIN
@
ATL
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Tyler Stephenson o0.5 Total RBIs (+197)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 86th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Tyler Stephenson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The #4 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. This game is projected to have the 4th-highest humidity on the slate (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.
Total Bases
Matt McLain o1.5 Total Bases (+198)
Projection 1.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run skill, Matt McLain ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #4 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. This game is projected to have the 4th-highest humidity on the slate (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Matt McLain hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
CHW
@
KC
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Anthony Kay o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-105)
Projection 4.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.9-mph in this game, the 6th-best of the day for mound aces.. Anthony Kay's 95.2-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 82nd percentile among all starters.. Anthony Kay's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (60.3% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.. Considering the 0.53 deviation between Anthony Kay's 7.31 K/9 and his 7.84 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year as it relates to strikeouts and should see positive regression in the future.
Total Bases
Brenton Doyle u1.5 Total Bases (-235)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Brenton Doyle is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.. When starting against a southpaw this year, Brenton Doyle has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 39% of the time.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.9-mph in this game, the 6th-best of the day for mound aces.. Brenton Doyle hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 4th-deepest CF fences today.. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.
MIA
@
CHC
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Janson Junk o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+136)
Projection 3.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-best pitching conditions on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the best of the day for pitchers.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Nico Hoerner u1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
Projection 1.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Nico Hoerner is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.. In the majors, the 7th-highest fence height (on average) are at Wrigley Field.. The weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-best pitching conditions on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the best of the day for pitchers.. Janson Junk will have the handedness advantage against Nico Hoerner today.
NYM
@
TEX
Tue, Sep 22 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Mark Vientos u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
19% of the time that Mark Vientos has started against a left-handed starter this year, he has been pinch hit for.. The #1 venue in MLB for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. The Texas Rangers outfield defense projects as the 4th-best out of every team in action today.. Mark Vientos will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. The Globe Life Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 117° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Francisco Lindor will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against MacKenzie Gore today.
AZ
@
COL
Tue, Sep 22 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Ildemaro Vargas u0.5 Total Hits (+300)
Projection 1.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ildemaro Vargas in the 4th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ildemaro Vargas in today's game.. Ildemaro Vargas's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, decreasing from 40.5% on the season to 33.3% over the last 14 days.. Ildemaro Vargas has been lucky this year, notching a .293 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .270 — a .023 gap.. Using Statcast data, Ildemaro Vargas ranks in the 11th percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .228.
Strikeouts Thrown
Michael Soroka o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+101)
Projection 5.28
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Michael Soroka in the 76th percentile among all SPs in MLB.. The Colorado Rockies have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Zac Veen, Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak).. In his previous GS, Michael Soroka turned in a great performance and posted 10 strikeouts.. Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Michael Soroka has relied on his non-fastballs 12.2% more often this year (57.2%) than he did last season (45%).. Michael Soroka's 2526-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 95th percentile among all starters.
HOU
@
SEA
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Lazaro Montes u1.5 Total Bases (-325)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Lazaro Montes is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.. 23% of the time that Lazaro Montes has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pulled from the game early.. T-Mobile Park profiles as the #29 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Lazaro Montes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, going from 26.3% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days.
Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in the game.. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Long-balls are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest among all major league parks.. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage against Logan Gilbert in today's matchup.
LAA
@
ATH
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Shea Langeliers is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Sutter Health Park profiles as the #1 ballpark in the majors for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate today at 82°.
Total Bases
Jose Siri o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 94th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Jose Siri has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Sutter Health Park profiles as the #1 ballpark in the majors for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate today at 82°.
MIN
@
SF
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Emmanuel Rodriguez u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Emmanuel Rodriguez in the 13th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Emmanuel Rodriguez is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the 2nd-worst ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs.. Among all stadiums, the tallest average fence height are at Oracle Park.. Emmanuel Rodriguez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.
Total RBIs
JC
Jonah Cox o0.5 Total RBIs (+290)
Projection 0.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his BABIP skill, Jonah Cox is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jonah Cox is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest humidity on the slate today at 91%.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.5-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.. Jonah Cox has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
SD
@
LAD
Tue, Sep 22 • 10:10 PM ET
Moneyline
LAD (-120)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Los Angeles Dodgers are trading as a 54% favorite, but I price them closer to 57%, so I'm hitting the button at this price. Justin Wrobleski will open the game, but the Dodgers also plan to use Roki Sasaki in a relief role as he returns from the injured list with a blister and prepares for a potential bullpen role in the postseason. Sasaki in relief is an intriguing weapon because he can empty the tank for a couple of innings, attack hitters with his high-octane four-seamer at the top of the zone and work his splitter off it down in the zone, rather than conserving his arm for 90-plus pitches. That usage is flying under the radar in this matchup, and I think it's a big reason we're seeing an edge at the current market price. Sasaki gives the Dodgers a legitimate weapon in middle relief who can help bridge the game to the back end of their bullpen.
Total Bases
Will Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Will Smith projects as the 16th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Will Smith is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the 2nd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for righty home runs.. Dodger Stadium has the shortest average fence height in the majors.. High humidity has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 5th-most humid conditions on the slate today at 80%.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
