Chicago @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 87th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Pete Crow-Armstrong will hold the platoon advantage over Tanner Banks in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Pete Crow-Armstrong has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 8.1% to 16%. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Pete Crow-Armstrong has suffered from bad luck this year. His .293 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .316.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. In the past 7 days, Seiya Suzuki's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.7-mph over the course of the season to 101.6-mph lately. Seiya Suzuki's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 16.3% to 19.7%.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Dansby Swanson is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Dansby Swanson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph to 92.4-mph over the past week. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Dansby Swanson's true offensive ability to be a .328, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .024 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .304 wOBA.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.2% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Isaac Paredes's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls recently (13.5° over the last 7 days) is significantly worse than his 20.1° seasonal angle. With a 1.36 K/BB rate this year, Isaac Paredes has demonstrated favorable plate discipline, checking in at the 96th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Michael Busch ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Batting from the opposite that Tanner Banks throws from, Michael Busch will have the upper hand today. Michael Busch has made notable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 11.6% seasonal rate to 17.9% over the last two weeks. Michael Busch has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.3-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 89.9-mph mark.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Cody Bellinger ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Cody Bellinger is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Cody Bellinger will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Banks in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.1°, Cody Bellinger has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 27.3° mark in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Ian Happ is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Ian Happ will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Tanner Banks today. Ian Happ has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 94.5-mph in the past week's worth of games.

Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Jameson Taillon will have the handedness advantage against Johan Rojas in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Johan Rojas will hold that advantage in today's game. Johan Rojas has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 88.9-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 86.2-mph.

As it relates to his batting average skill, Trea Turner is projected as the 13th-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trea Turner is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Jameson Taillon will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trea Turner in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Trea Turner will hold that advantage today.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Mike Tauchman ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Mike Tauchman is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. Mike Tauchman has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Compared to last year, Mike Tauchman has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.1% to 20.4% this season. The standard deviation of Mike Tauchman's launch angle this year (26.2°) is in the 88th percentile. A low mark like this tends to lead to a higher rate of base hits.

Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Garrett Stubbs can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Garrett Stubbs will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Garrett Stubbs's 18° launch angle (a reliable metric to study a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most flyball-inducing in baseball: 83rd percentile.

Alec Bohm's batting average skill is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Bohm is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Batting from the same side that Jameson Taillon throws from, Alec Bohm will be at a disadvantage today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Alec Bohm will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Nico Hoerner has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .269 mark is a good deal lower than his .285 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. When it comes to plate discipline, Nico Hoerner's talent is quite impressive, posting a 1.5 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 93rd percentile. In notching a .271 batting average this year, Nico Hoerner has performed in the 81st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Batting from the same side that Jameson Taillon throws from, Nick Castellanos will have a disadvantage today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Nick Castellanos will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. In the past week's worth of games, Miguel Amaya's 70% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.3%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.246) implies that Miguel Amaya has been unlucky this year with his .232 actual batting average.

Bryce Harper projects as the 12th-best hitter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Bryce Harper has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Bryce Harper will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edmundo Sosa in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Hitting from the same side that Jameson Taillon throws from, Edmundo Sosa will have a disadvantage today. Edmundo Sosa will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Placing in the 82nd percentile, the hardest ball Edmundo Sosa has connected with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 111.9 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Jameson Taillon will hold the platoon advantage over J.T. Realmuto in today's matchup. J.T. Realmuto will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. J.T. Realmuto has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 10.4% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Schwarber in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Kyle Schwarber is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP. Kyle Schwarber will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Austin Hays will hold the platoon advantage over Justin Steele in today's game. Austin Hays pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Austin Hays will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Ranking in the 81st percentile, Austin Hays has hit 39.1% of his balls in the air this year with a velocity of 100+ mph. Sporting a .321 BABIP this year, Austin Hays finds himself in the 79th percentile.

Bryson Stott has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Brandon Marsh has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.