Zack Littell threw just 75 pitches in his last start but went 21 outs and struck out seven batters. He hit the Over 4.5 in the start before that, as well, and that came against the Guardians, who are the best K% team in baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays pitcher will have a 90-pitch leash today vs. the Detroit Tigers, who have a 28% K% over the last two weeks, which is the third-highest in the league. Covers' projections sit at 4.55 Ks for the starter with THE BAT expecting 84 pitches, which is on the low end in my opinion. This is a buy to +110 for me. I love the Tigers' magic right now, but they have a lot of swing-and-miss within their bats and struck out 12 times last night with Ryan Pepiot accounting for six over 15 outs.
Josh InglisPicked 2 hrs, 7 min ago.
PROP
Zack Littell u5.5 Hits Allowed (+100)
Talk about sneaky good. Littell has been next to automatic across his past eight starts with a filthy 1.41 ERA and 0.85 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .176 batting average, .198 BABIP and 31.2% hard-hit rate. He’s allowed five hits or fewer in six of the eight trips to the bump, too. Obviously, there’s negative regression across the board given his 4.32 xFIP and 89.9% strand rate during the heater, but I’m not anticipating it striking all at once in a single start. Plus, Detroit has its own statistical correction ahead of its fifth-ranked .309 BABIP during its active 12-3 run.
Zack Littell o4.5 strikeouts (+120)
Zack Littell u5.5 Hits Allowed (+100)
