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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 11, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
+168 
|
o7.5 -130
|
+1.5 -128
|
|
4.77 |
-190 
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +115 
|
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Imanagas last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+225
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.70 |
+160
|
o8.0 -110 
|
+1.5 -132
|
|
4.81 |
-184
|
u8.5 -117
|
-1.5 +120
|
Colorado
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-1 in Rockies last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 overall.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0-1 in Tigers last 7 vs. National League West.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Valdezs last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Valdezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Colt Keith u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
u0.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.01 |
+132
|
o7.5 -115 
|
+1.5 -160
|
|
4.49 |
-143
|
u8.0 -105 
|
-1.5 +143
|
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kikuchis last 4 starts as an underdog.
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Nationals are 7-0 in Cavallis last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 5-0 in Cavallis last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Nationals last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+209)
o0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.82 |
+120
|
o7.5 -132
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
5.02 |
-136
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-2 in McLeans last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 5-0 in McLeans last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Mets last 8 games following a win.
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bo Bichette o0.5 Total RBIs (+219)
o0.5+219
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.81 |
+108
|
o8.0 -112
|
+1.5 -195
|
|
4.60 |
-125 
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +172
|
Baltimore
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Bassitts last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 on astroturf.
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 road starts.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0-1 in Scherzers last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Scherzers last 4 starts on astroturf.
Top Projection
Jesus Sanchez o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
+146
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
4.40 |
-170
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +130
|
Houston
- Over is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 road games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rays are 9-0 in Rasmussens last 9 starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Rays last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Top Projection
Miguel Ullola o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.96 |
-209
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 -115
|
|
3.15 |
+180
|
u7.5 -110
|
+1.5 +100
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.
- Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Gustos last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.25 |
+170
|
o8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
5.26 |
-195
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +110
|
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. American League Central.
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Grays last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 7-1 in Grays last 8 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+194)
o0.5+194
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.95 |
+160
|
o5.0 -500
|
+1.5 -138
|
|
4.94 |
-180
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +130
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 5-0 in Nolas last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Nolas last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Nolas last 4 road starts.
- Under is 7-1-2 in Nolas last 10 starts vs. National League East.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Sales last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Trea Turner o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
o0.5+265
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.93 |
+160
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -140
|
|
4.53 |
-180
|
u8.5 -132
|
-1.5 +120
|
Cincinnati
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1 in Reds last 8 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 road games.
- Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 games as a road underdog.
Milwaukee
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 8-1 in Harrisons last 9 home starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Harrisons last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Brewers are 8-2 in Harrisons last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
-120
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.10 |
+105
|
u7.5 -102
|
+1.5 -164
|
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Messicks last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
Minnesota
- Twins are 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Twins are 4-0 in Bradleys last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+158)
o0.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.35 |
-110
|
o8.0 -114
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.92 |
-104
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Kays last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Kays last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Kays last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Liberatores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts a home underdog.
Top Projection
Joshua Baez o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.92 |
+112
|
o8.5 -150
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.03 |
-130
|
u9.5 -130
|
-1.5 +165
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rangers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 overall.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
o1.5+157
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.72 |
-160
|
o9.5 -120
|
-1.5 -105
|
|
5.15 |
+145
|
u10.5 -125
|
+1.5 -113
|
Seattle
- Over is 6-0 in Kirbys last 6 starts vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Kirbys last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Kirbys last 4 road starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Kirbys last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Athletics
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0 in Springs' last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Springs' last 7 home starts.
Top Projection
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total Home Runs (+600)
o0.5+650
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.88 |
-140
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
3.87 |
+130
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -135
|
San Diego
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 starts on grass.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
San Francisco
- Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
o0.5+169
PIT
@
CHC
Fri, Sep 11 • 2:20 PM ET
Spread
CHC -1.5 (+120)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I'm recommending the Chicago -1.5 run line to +110 because the Pirates rank 25th in wOBA with the second-highest strikeout percentage against lefties, so Cubs southpaw Shota Imagana is set up to build on his respectable 3.91 xERA and 3.93 xFIP across his past nine starts. Additionally, the Chicago offense is ripe to rebound following a disappointing series against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs posted an uncharacteristically low .235 BABIP, with their .282 wOBA also well below their .323 xwOBA during the three-game set.
Total Bases
Bryan Reynolds o1.5 Total Bases (+148)
Projection 1.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Bryan Reynolds's BABIP talent is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. Over the past 7 days, Bryan Reynolds's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.1% up to 20%.. Bryan Reynolds has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91-mph EV.
COL
@
DET
Fri, Sep 11 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Connor Norby o0.5 Total RBIs (+283)
Projection 0.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Connor Norby is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Connor Norby will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup.. Connor Norby's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, going from 18.5% on the season to 66.7% over the past week.
Total RBIs
TJ Rumfield o0.5 Total RBIs (+246)
Projection 0.4
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
T.J. Rumfield is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. In the past week's worth of games, T.J. Rumfield's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.1% up to 18.2%.. T.J. Rumfield has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 88.4-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 84.3-mph EV.. In the last two weeks, T.J. Rumfield's 30% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.2%.
LAA
@
WAS
Fri, Sep 11 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 9th-best batter in the majors.. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Nationals Park has the 6th-shallowest fences in the league — generally good for long-balls.. Hitters such as Mike Trout with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cade Cavalli who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. The Washington Nationals infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.
Total Bases
Josh Lowe u1.5 Total Bases (-300)
Projection 0.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Josh Lowe is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.. When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Josh Lowe has been pinch hit for 26% of the time.. Nationals Park grades out as the #26 stadium in the league for LHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Josh Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.
NYM
@
NYY
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Luis Garcia Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia Jr. in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Luis Garcia Jr. is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. The #9 park in the majors for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. In Major League Baseball, Yankee Stadium has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Nolan McLean throws from, Luis Garcia Jr. will have the upper hand in today's game.
Total Bases
Bo Bichette o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette as the 5th-best hitter in the league when estimating his batting average talent.. Bo Bichette is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #9 park in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. In Major League Baseball, Yankee Stadium has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Bo Bichette will have an edge in today's game.
BAL
@
TOR
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:07 PM ET
Total Bases
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.98
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Pete Alonso projects as the 15th-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 6th-best park in the game for right-handed home runs.. Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors.. Pete Alonso has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 14% seasonal rate to 25% in the past 7 days.
Total RBIs
Leody Taveras o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
Projection 0.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 6th-best stadium in the game for LHB home runs.. Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors.. The switch-hitting Leody Taveras will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Max Scherzer.. Leody Taveras has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.9-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 88.1-mph average.
HOU
@
TB
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Yandy Diaz u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.99
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -5° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Miguel Ullola will have the handedness advantage against Yandy Diaz today.. Yandy Diaz has been lucky this year, notching a .364 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .345 — a .019 disparity.
Total Bases
Jose Altuve o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 3rd-best park in the league for righty home runs.. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams playing today.
LAD
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Will Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Will Smith ranks as the 17th-best batter in the league.. Will Smith is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.. Will Smith's launch angle lately (38° over the past week) is considerably better than his 20.4° seasonal mark.. Compared to last season, Will Smith has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 18% to 21% this season.
Total RBIs
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
Projection 0.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez as the 9th-best batter in the game when it comes to his batting average talent.. Otto Lopez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Otto Lopez will hold the platoon advantage against Blake Snell in today's game.. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of all the teams playing today.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Otto Lopez will hold that advantage in today's game.
KC
@
BOS
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Spread
BOS -1.5 (+112)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray gives Boston a sizable starting-pitching advantage over Seth Lugo, whose 5.04 ERA makes him difficult to trust against this lineup at Fenway. Gray owns a 2.69 ERA with 17 wins, and Boston has the superior late-inning path. With the moneyline too expensive, I’ll lay the 1.5 runs instead.
Total Bases
Vinnie Pasquantino o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Vinnie Pasquantino will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.. In the past 7 days, Vinnie Pasquantino's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8% up to 17.6%.
PHI
@
ATL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Home Runs (+319)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Kyle Schwarber remains a serious power threat with four homers over his last seven games and a .444 ISO during that stretch. His hard-hit and barrel numbers remain excellent, while Atlanta’s struggling bullpen gives him another opportunity to go deep even if Sale handles him early.
Total
o7.5 (+107)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The Over is driven by late-game volatility. Atlanta’s bullpen has struggled badly lately while allowing plenty of home-run damage, and Philadelphia’s relief corps has similar issues. Both offenses are cold, but vulnerable bullpens create enough scoring paths once the starters leave.
CIN
@
MIL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Elly De La Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+201)
Projection 0.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. American Family Field profiles as the #8 stadium in the majors for lefty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In MLB, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense.
Total RBIs
William Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+176)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. William Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. American Family Field profiles as the #8 ballpark in baseball for righty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In MLB, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense.
CLE
@
MIN
Fri, Sep 11 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Royce Lewis u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #6 stadium in the majors for suppressing home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. The 10th-deepest centerfield fences in MLB are found in Target Field.. The league's 5th-tallest average fence height can be found at Target Field.. Over the last two weeks, Royce Lewis's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal average of 92 mph to 89.8 mph.. Posting a .288 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Royce Lewis finds himself in the 16th percentile for hitting ability.
Total RBIs
Kaelen Culpepper o0.5 Total RBIs (+289)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Kaelen Culpepper is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Batting from the opposite that Parker Messick throws from, Kaelen Culpepper will have an edge today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Kaelen Culpepper will hold that advantage in today's game.
CHW
@
STL
Fri, Sep 11 • 8:15 PM ET
Moneyline
STL (-105)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
I was on the White Sox yesterday, but it's a different story today. They just got swept at home by the Pirates and put up a donut last night. Now they have a tough travel spot, opening a series against the Cardinals today. The Cardinals have a fair probability of 58.3%, per THE BAT, and are the best +EV ML on the board today. Matthew Liberatore's 5.57 ERA might scare some away on the surface, but his 3.22 xFIP in the second half is the 24th-best mark among all starters, while his .373 BABIP and 56.6% LOB% are unsustainable. Chicago is also missing one of its best arms, lefty Hagen Smith, who threw 33 pitches last night. Chicago has clenched butt cheeks right now, and that division lead is slipping. This roster knows nothing about adversity, and it could be an ugly finish.
Total Bases
Ivan Herrera o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 7th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Considering Anthony Kay's large platoon split, Ivan Herrera will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.
TEX
@
AZ
Fri, Sep 11 • 9:40 PM ET
Moneyline
AZ (-123)
Eric Rosales
Betting Analyst
Total
u9.5 (-129)
Eric Rosales
Betting Analyst
SEA
@
ATH
Fri, Sep 11 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
J.P. Crawford o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. J.P. Crawford is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Sutter Health Park projects as the #2 venue in MLB for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 97°.
Total Bases
Julio Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (-114)
Projection 2.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 14th-best batter in MLB when it comes to his batting average ability.. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The #2 ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 96°.
SD
@
SF
Fri, Sep 11 • 10:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Total RBIs (+245)
Projection 0.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The shallowest RF fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Anthony Molina throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an edge today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jake Cronenworth's true offensive talent to be a .303, implying that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .038 disparity between that figure and his actual .265 wOBA.
Total RBIs
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Bryce Eldridge ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Eldridge is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The shallowest RF fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Bryce Eldridge will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
