Musgrove has looked like a completely different pitcher after a two-and-a-half-month IL stint. Musgrove has a 2.15 ERA over his last nine outings while limiting opponents to a .195 batting average. That’s not a good thing for a Braves team that ranked 18th in batting average, 17th in OPS, and 19th in wRC+ while striking out at the 10th highest rate vs. right-handed pitching this season. They also don’t have a great track record vs. Musgrove. Current Braves batters have combined for a .224 expected batting average and a .311 expected slugging in their careers against him. Musgrove has held opponents to 1 ER or fewer in six of those nine starts.
Andrew CaleyPicked 3 hrs, 17 min ago.
MONEYLINE
Atlanta (+106)
The Braves are in a far better place than yesterday when they had to stick largely untested 21-year-old AJ Smith-Shawver on the mound. Two-time All-Star Fried and his 3.25 ERA will toe the rubber tonight. Fried does a great job of forcing weak contact ranking in the top fifth percentile in exit velocity in ground ball rate. He's been red-hot lately, pitching to a 2.39 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and an OBA of .207 over his last eight starts. The Padres have struggled against lefties like Fried, batting .239 with an OPS of .690.
Books are terrified to open outs markets in Game 2 as only Sean Manaea and Max Fried have totals listed. Fried's is the biggest at a whopping 17.5 with plus money to the Under. The only reason for this price is the Atlanta Braves bullpen is used and abused. But guess what? If Fried stumbles, the visitors are going to the bullpen because they need a win. The Atlanta starter has gone Over the 17.5 outs in six straight starts but with the season on the line, those numbers might not carry over to Game 2. So much has to go right to go 18 outs in the playoffs when your team is down 1-0 in a best-of-three. In his postseason career, Fried is 6-5 O/U on this number but 1-4 O/U in his last five postseason starts. He's seen San Diego once this year at home and went 13 outs on 88 pitches after giving up three runs on nine hits with three walks. I'd play this to even money. Two units for me.
Joe Musgrove u1.5 Earned Runs (+130)
Atlanta (+106)
