New York @ Milwaukee picks

There is no reason for either team to run their starters long unless they are dealing, which still favors the Under 4.5 hits for both pitchers. Tobias Myers didn't have a long leash to begin with down the stretch as the rookie was setting career-highs in innings pitched. He went exactly 12 outs in three straight games to end the season including a a 56-pitch one-hit outing vs. these New York Mets in his last start. The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen will get used today and Myers' Under 4.5 hits allowed is a buy for me up to -155. He projects for Under 4.00 hits allowed on 72 pitches, per THE BAT.

Lindor wrapped up the regular season slashing .273/.344/.500 while leading the Mets in runs (107) and RBIs (91) in 152 games. The three-time Silver Slugger recipient began the season slowly but caught fire during the final two months, slashing .320/.376/.580 since the start of August. The Brewers are sending rookie Tobias Myers to the mound for Game 3. Myers posted an impressive 3.00 ERA across 25 starts but his expected ERA is significantly worse at 4.11. Myers is in the bottom 25th percentile in ground ball rate and average exit velocity which is bad news against a hard hitter like Lindor who drives the ball.

Contreras is one of the best hitting catchers in the world and his eye for the ball (and the intimidation factor from opposing pitchers) has led to plenty of walks. Contreras tied for eighth in the majors with 78 walks in 155 games and his walk rate (11.5%) ranks in the top 10th percentile. Mets starter Jose Quintana has struggled with his control and his walk rate of 8.8% ticks up to 9.7% against right-handed hitters like Contreras. Likewise, Contreras gets more free passes when he has the platoon advantage, with his BB% surging to 13.6%. New York's bullpen also has control issues with Mets relievers collectively ranking 28th in the majors in walk rate (10.7%).

Quintana finished the regular season with a solid 3.75 ERA and an OBA of .237 through 31 starts. He's been red-hot lately, pitching to a 0.74 ERA with an OBA of .197 in his last six starts. He faced Milwaukee in his final outing during the regular season, allowing two runs and fanning a season-high nine batters before getting pulled in the fifth inning. The Brewers struggled at the dish during the final month, ranking 28th in the majors in BA (.219) with an OPS of .658 in September. Books have been reluctant to release pitcher outs props in the postseason due to the short leashes these starters are on. However, shorter stints from pitchers do provide nice opportunities for Unders in other categories as well. 

The underlying metrics for both Brewers SP Tobias Myers and Mets lefty Jose Quintana tell us to expect a lot of contact putting a ton of balls in play. And while both teams grade out well defensively, this will eventually lead to a ton of runs. I give the Brewers the edge on the moneyline, but it's juiced too high compared to the Over.