Wisconsin vs Notre Dame Picks & Props
WIS vs ND Picks
NCAAF PicksNotre Dame slot WR Jaden Greathouse has tallied more than 32 receiving yards in just 11 of his 25 career games with a catch, including once in his four games last season.
Though he only played four games, Greathouse had a failing grade in his limited snaps last year. Also, if Notre Dame establishes the run Sunday, Greathouse could be on the field less because the Fighting Irish will use heavier packages.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), all four of Wisconsin's offensive line starters who played enough snaps last season had a failing grade.
This isn't ideal considering Notre Dame's defense ranked eighth in yards per rush allowed last year, according to GameOnPaper.com.
Badgers RB Abu Sama gained at least 43 rushing yards in eight of his 12 games last season. But Sama played for the Iowa State Cyclones last year and faced a cupcake schedule of defenses in the Big XII.
Wisconsin's offense is 106th in Connelly's SP+ ratings, while the Fighting Irish's defense ranks ninth, and college football analyst Phil Steele expects them to have one of the best front sevens in the nation.
Notre Dame ranked 35th in rushing play volume last season, per TeamRankings.com. They have one of the best offensive lines in the country, so they don’t need to air it out usually.
Fighting Irish QB C.J. Carr threw for more than 225 yards in just four of his 12 games last year. They lost their second- through sixth-most productive pass-catchers this offseason. With that in mind, it could take a few weeks for Carr to get in sync with his new receivers.
Lastly, Wisconsin's defense is its strongest unit. College football analyst Bill Connelly ranks the Badgers 22nd in his defensive SP+ ratings entering this season.
The key to the Under will be Wisconsin's defense. The Badgers' offense is going to struggle to score more than 13 points at Lambeau Field against a Notre Dame defense with the best secondary in the country. But even while Wisconsin has struggled during the Luke Fickell era, the defense has been solid. It was ranked 35th by SP+ last year, and as long as it can keep Notre Dame to 35 or fewer points, the Under will be in good shape.
Notre Dame is arguably the most talented team in the country and ranks No. 1 nationally in returning production (72%). The Fighting Irish have a Heisman contender at QB and a defense full of NFL talent, including the country's best secondary. Luke Fickell's team is heavily relying on transfers, and if Old Dominion's Colton Joseph isn't at his best, the Badgers won't keep this close at Lambeau. Wisconsin was 122nd in SP+ on offense last season.
Notre Dame's defense is full of players who could be playing for the Green Bay Packers on Sundays at Lambeau Field instead of for the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame is No. 2 nationally in returning defensive production (77%), with a secondary that should fluster new Wisconsin QB Colton Joseph. As long as the Irish slow the Badgers' run game, a blowout win led by their defense seems likely.
WIS vs ND Consensus Picks
45% picking Wisconsin
Total Picks WIS 442, ND 537
WIS vs ND Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TOTAL
Under
46.0 Total
46.37 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
10.02%
EV
|
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|
MONEYLINE
|
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|
PASSING YARDS
ND
C. Carr
(QB)
o224.5 Passing Yards
240.42 OVER
PROJECTION
+15.9
DIFFERENCE
22.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
WIS
C. Joseph
(QB)
o143.5 Passing Yards
151.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.8
DIFFERENCE
20.56%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
WIS
A. Sama III
(RB)
o33.5 Rushing Yards
44.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.6
DIFFERENCE
25.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
WIS
C. Joseph
(QB)
o26.5 Rushing Yards
34.03 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.5
DIFFERENCE
24.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ND
A. Williams
(RB)
o78.5 Rushing Yards
84.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.6
DIFFERENCE
20.56%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
WIS
A. Sama III
(RB)
o0.5 Receiving Yards
9.06 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.6
DIFFERENCE
26.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
WIS
T. Henry
(WR)
o15.5 Receiving Yards
31.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+16.4
DIFFERENCE
26.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
WIS
J. Harris
(TE)
o11.5 Receiving Yards
18.13 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.6
DIFFERENCE
25.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ND
A. Williams
(RB)
u19.5 Receiving Yards
14.70 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.8
DIFFERENCE
25.14%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
WIS
E. Hilton Jr.
(WR)
o22.5 Receiving Yards
35.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.7
DIFFERENCE
24.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ND
J. Faison
(WR)
o54.5 Receiving Yards
62.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.3
DIFFERENCE
-12.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ND
A. Williams
(RB)
u2.5 Receptions
1.61 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
16.54%
EV
|
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|
RECEPTIONS
WIS
A. Sama III
(RB)
o0.5 Receptions
1.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
11.71%
EV
|
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|
RECEPTIONS
WIS
T. Henry
(WR)
o1.5 Receptions
2.41 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
11.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
WIS
J. Harris
(TE)
o1.5 Receptions
1.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
5.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ND
J. Faison
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions
4.44 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
WIS
E. Hilton Jr.
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
2.55 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
2.7%
EV
|
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|
CARRIES
WIS
A. Sama III
(RB)
o8.5 Carries
11.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.8
DIFFERENCE
22.69%
EV
|
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|
CARRIES
WIS
C. Joseph
(QB)
o12.5 Carries
13.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
6.32%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 9-0 in Badgers last 9 games overall.
Under is 9-0 in Badgers last 9 games overall.
Under is 7-0 in Badgers last 7 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.
Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Badgers last 4 games on grass.
Over is 6-1 in Fighting Irish last 7 games on grass.
Over is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 games in September.
ROI Trends
WIS vs ND Top User Picks
Wisconsin Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Badgers Money Leaders | |||
Notre Dame Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Fighting Irish Money Leaders | |||