LSU vs Mississippi   Picks & Props

Deuce Alexander is his most productive returning wideout from last year's Ole Miss team. Alexander has gone Over this number in his first two games. Alexander is projected to be covered by LSU's lowest-graded defensive back by Pro Football Focus. 

Chambliss has thrown for 282+ yards in 10 of his 15 starts at Ole Miss, including five of his seven conference games. He has performed well against strong competition. Chambliss went Over his passing yards prop in his three games in the College Football Playoff last season. 

LSU's defense is the biggest reason I'm playing the Under. The Tigers have allowed just 24 points through two games, including 10 against Clemson, while holding opponents to 2.5 yards per play and averaging 5.5 sacks per game. That pressure matters against an Ole Miss offense that has protected Trinidad Chambliss extremely well but hasn't faced a front this disruptive. 

Trey’Dez Green is the LSU touchdown play at +145. The Tigers have scored 48 points per game through two weeks, and their passing offense ranks fifth nationally, creating the kind of volume that can support a plus-money tight end. Green’s 6-foot-7 frame is a problem near the goal line, particularly when Sam Leavitt’s mobility forces Ole Miss defenders to hesitate. Leavitt has already scored five rushing touchdowns, so the Rebels cannot sell out on Green in condensed space. Ole Miss has allowed 23.5 points per game, and LSU should have enough possessions to make its red-zone matchup count. 

Green’s size and route access make this playable to +110.

The Ole Miss’ quarterback has already produced 561 passing yards and five passing touchdowns through two games, while also adding a rushing score. LSU’s defense should force the Rebels to work for every possession, which increases the value of a quarterback who can extend plays and finish drives himself. Chambliss ran for a touchdown in the opener and threw two scores in last week’s 41-9 win over Charlotte.

In a matchup where LSU’s pressure could shrink the pocket, his mobility may matter as much as his arm. Anecdotally it doesn't hurt that this one means just a little more to Trinidad Chambliss in particular. I'd play to +120.

Caleb Odom is the longer-priced option I prefer. Ole Miss ranks 123rd nationally in rushing EPA and averages only 4.1 yards per carry, which should place greater responsibility on Trinidad Chambliss to win through the passing game. Odom has 66 yards and a touchdown on three catches, including a 35-yard gain, while LSU ranks in the bottom 30th percentile nationally in explosiveness allowed. If the Tigers devote extra attention to Deuce Alexander, Odom’s size gives him a natural matchup inside the 20. His role aligns with the clearest weakness in this matchup, making him the better longshot.

Kewan Lacy caught four passes for 19 yards against Louisville before leaving injured early, and he proved his health a week ago. That number would've been a lot higher against Louisville if he didn't get hurt, and the staf really wants to have him involved in the passing game, and we've seen proof of that.

LSU's front seven is one of the scariest in college football. The Tigers' defense is ranked third nationally in havoc rate (30.2%) and Top 10 in both EPA per pass and rush. Blake Baker's pass rush will pressure Trinidad Chambliss, and if he isn't perfect, Ole Miss is going to have a tough time scoring more than 27 points. LSU's coaching staff knows Chambliss well, too, and that should give the Tigers an edge.

With Lane Kiffin on one side and Trinidad Chambliss on the other, offense is the talk heading into this game. But LSU has one of the best defenses in the country (ranked No. 2 by SP+), and its offense is also going to have to deal with a rambunctious Ole Miss crowd. I think a slow offensive start from both sides should fuel the Under (I like the Under at 56.5 or better).

LSU-Ole Miss has all the makings of absolute mayhem. Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford for the first time since leaving the Rebels for LSU, and you already know the Ole Miss faithful will have plenty to say. Add in Kiffin’s love for the villain role, a hostile environment and uncertainty surrounding LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt, and I want no part of picking a side. I want points. Both teams have plenty of motivation, and I expect this matchup to play at a fast pace with plenty of scoring opportunities. I grabbed the over at 58.5, but 57.5 is still available.

LSU’s dominating performance versus Clemson in Week 1 might not prove to be overly impressive considering Clemson might be lucky to make a bowl game this year.
 
Also, LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt has quietly thrown four interceptions already this season. Obviously, multiple turnovers is not a recipe for success on the road.

While Kiffin and Trinidad Chambliss are the headliners for this year's Magnolia Bowl, I think LSU will cover on the road because of its defense (specifically its front seven). Princewill Umanmielen (10) and Jordan Ross (8) are both Top 25 in the country in pressures, and the Tigers' defense is third nationally in havoc rate (30.2%). Ole Miss' defense has been far less impressive, ranking third-last in the SEC in havoc rate (15.5%) with 21 pressures through two games (LSU has 48). 

Let's get out infront of an expected line move. Both of these teams are in the top five nationally in terms of plays per minute, so expect a fast tempo with lots of opportunities on both sides. Expect motivation for scoring as well. Both of these teams want to kill each other and if there's opportunities to score late in the game, don't expect either to hold back.