Iowa @ Purdue preview

Last Meeting ( Nov 15, 2008 ) Purdue 17, Iowa 22

THE STORY: Iowa hasn’t been its usual force in the Big Ten championship race, but it’s still playing for a high-profile bowl game when it visits Purdue on Saturday. But Iowa must win on the road, something it hasn’t done all season. James Vandenberg and the offense have blown late leads in two road contests and lost all three by just 14 points. That road losing streak may not end in West Lafayette, where all of Purdue’s victories have occurred, including last week’s 26-23 upset of Ohio State. The Boilermakers will rely on their defense to push them toward that all-important sixth win that would make them bowl eligible for the first time since 2008.

TV: Big Ten Network LINE: IOWA -3

ABOUT IOWA (6-4, 3-3 BIG TEN): Iowa’s three first-half turnovers last week led to an early 31-7 deficit and ultimately a loss to No. 17 Michigan State. If it limits those mistakes on Saturday, it could find itself on the other end of a blowout. Purdue’s defense has struggled against balanced attacks and that’s exactly what the Hawkeyes have showed most of the season. Running back Marcus Coker has already topped 1,000 yards rushing, while Marvin McNutt has eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving. It will be up to James Vandenburg to distribute the ball accordingly. The quarterback would be wise to hit McNutt well into the fourth quarter. That’s something he failed to do in Iowa’s last road loss to Minnesota, when McNutt had zero targets in the final period allowing the Gophers overcame an 11-point deficit.

ABOUT PURDUE (5-5, 3-3 BIG TEN): While Iowa is trying to close out games, Purdue is just trying to stay in them. The Boilermakers have been shut out in the third quarter of their last four games, totaling just 235 yards. They can’t afford such a drought against Iowa, which is the third-most efficient passing offense in the Big Ten. It sits right behind Wisconsin, which lit up Iowa for a season-high 62 points earlier this month.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Iowa is averaging the fewest penalty yards per game (33.7), while Purdue is second-to-last (63.1).

2. Iowa owns just one victory in its last five road trips to Purdue.

3. A loss for Purdue puts its bowl eligibility on the line next week against in-state rival Indiana, which won last season’s matchup.

PREDICTION: Iowa 41, Purdue 20 – Iowa is not the one-dimensional offense that Purdue was so fortunate to see last week against Ohio State. Purdue’s top cover corner Ralph Boden won’t be able to contain McNutt, who will eclipse 100 yards for the fifth straight game.