Texas Tech @ Baylor preview

Last Meeting ( Nov 29, 2014 ) Baylor 48, Texas Tech 46

Texas Tech just missed out on knocking off one presumptive favorite in the Big 12 last week and will take aim at another when it faces No. 4 Baylor on Saturday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, in the conference opener for both teams. The Red Raiders lost on a tipped ball in the end zone in the final seconds against TCU last week and have an offense that can hang with the FBS-best Bears.

Baylor leads the FBS in yards per game (767) and is just as potent rushing (379.7) and passing (387.3), though the competition level over the first three games calls those numbers slightly into question. Realistically, we feel like we did what we should have done through our nonconference schedule,” Bears coach Art Briles told reporters. “We know the importance of conference games and that things are going to get more important, and tougher as we go along.” Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes II set a Big 12 freshman record with 598 passing yards in a 48-46 home loss to Baylor last season, but was banged up a bit in the 55-52 loss to TCU last week. The sophomore managed 392 yards and a pair of touchdowns while playing most of that game hurt and is considered day-to-day.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2. LINE: Baylor -17

ABOUT BAYLOR (3-0, 0-0 Big 12): Seth Russell got his first college experience playing in a close game when he came on in relief of Bryce Petty (concussion) against Texas Tech last season and threw a touchdown pass to help his team hang on for the win. “Getting that experience and a feel for the atmosphere was definitely valuable,” Russell told reporters. “I feel like I kind of got thrown into the fire and I answered well, or as well as I needed to.” Firmly entrenched as the starter this season, the junior has thrown 15 TD pass in three games and connected for six scores on 12 completions before getting an early rest when the backups came on in a 70-17 win over Rice last week.

ABOUT TEXAS TECH (3-1, 0-1): The Red Raiders are not far behind the Bears offensively and are averaging 53.8 points with Mahomes (11 passing touchdowns, five rushing TDs) leading the way. The defense has not been quite as sharp and surrendered 750 total yards to TCU last week, but the staff feels it’s strong enough to give the offense a chance to win games. I think (the defense) learned if they'll just keep fighting and keep playing, we'll have a chance to win a whole bunch of football games,” defensive coordinator David Gibbs told reporters of the lessons learned in last week’s loss. “They don't have to be perfect.”

EXTRA POINTS

1. Baylor freshman S J.W. Ketchum was removed from the team roster due to a violation of team rules but is eligible to redshirt.

2. Texas Tech is playing back-to-back top-5 teams for the first time in school history.

3. The all-time series is knotted at 36-36-1, though the Bears have taken the last four meetings.

PREDICTION: Baylor 61, Texas Tech 48