Texas @ Baylor preview

Last Meeting ( Oct 4, 2014 ) Baylor 28, Texas 7

It seems the only way host Baylor can lose to Texas on Saturday is if its damaged psyche becomes a factor, but the No. 12 Bears have a lot to play for despite dropping out of College Football Playoff contention. Baylor, which leads the nation in scoring (50.8 points) and total offense (616 yards per game), appears headed for the Sugar Bowl with a victory after suffering a 28-21 loss in double overtime at No. 11 TCU on Nov. 27 - its second setback in three games following an 8-0 start.

Bears coach Art Briles has done his best to keep it positive and let his players know there is still plenty to accomplish. ''If you're alive, you can have hope, you can have goals, and you can have purpose. That's where we are,'' Briles told reporters. ''We have a bunch of that in front of us. We can have a tremendously fulfilling season by taking care of the business at hand. ... Let's handle what we can handle - what's in front of us. We can't change what's behind us.'' With a victory over the Longhorns, Baylor clinches second in the Big 12 behind likely CFP participant Oklahoma by virtue of its 45-35 victory over Oklahoma State on Nov. 21 after TCU was eliminated from the three-team tiebreaker because of scoring differential. Banged-up Texas is coming off a 48-45 loss to Texas Tech on Thanksgiving and will suffer consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1988-89 and second since 1937-38 while trying to avoid its first three-game losing streak in the series.

TV: Noon ET, ESPN. LINE: Baylor -20.5

ABOUT TEXAS (4-7, 3-5 Big 12): Freshman quarterback Jerrod Heard (556 yards and three touchdowns rushing, five TDs passing) suffered a concussion against Texas Tech, but was cleared to practice and is expected to play. Coach Charlie Strong said D'Onta Foreman (team-best 681 yards rushing, five touchdowns) will not play because of a finger injury and neither will running back Kirk Johnson (knee), linebacker Peter Jinkens (knee) and right guard Patrick Vahe (knee). Texas' best chance to spring an upset could be with running back Chris Warren III, who recorded 276 rushing yards - a school record for a freshman - and scored four touchdowns against Texas Tech after entering the game with 88 yards and zero scores.

ABOUT BAYLOR (9-2, 6-2): The Bears are 13th in the nation in passing yards at 324.5 per game after sophomore quarterback Chris Johnson threw for only 62 in his first start in the pouring rain against TCU - Baylor's lowest total since 2002. With junior Seth Russell (neck) and freshman Jarrett Stidham (ankle) out for the season, it will be up to Johnson to guide the Bears the rest of the way. He has some big weapons at his disposal including running back Shock Linwood (1,298 yards, 10 touchdowns), who could have a big day against a rushing defense ranked 101st in the nation at 203.2 yards allowed per game.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Baylor WR Corey Coleman leads the country with 20 touchdowns and is third in the nation at 119.5 yards per game while averaging 19.6 per 67 receptions.

2. The Bears lead the country in touchdown drives of two minutes or less with 46 after recording a nation-best 41 last season.

3. The Longhorns lead the series 74-26-4 but has lost four of the last five meetings, including a 28-7 decision in 2014.

PREDICTION: Baylor 52, Texas 21