Since getting fully healthy, Darius Taylor’s workload has spiked, from just 12 rushes in the first four games of his season to 18.7 in the last three. It is no coincidence that Minnesota has covered the spread in the last three games by an average of 12 points compared to oddsmakers’ expectations. It goes a bit below the radar, but P.J. Fleck prefers to run the ball. With Taylor the healthy ballcarrier, Minnesota fares much better. And now it faces a bottom-third rushing defense. Illinois ranks No. 87 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against. Worse yet, the Illini give up success on 48% of opposing rushes, No. 126 in the country.
The wrong team looks favored here. This line is an overrecation to Illinois' loss to Oregon. Yes, Minnesota and QB Max Brosmer have looked better winning three in a row, but the competition in those games (Maryland, UCLA, USC) has not been great. While the defense doesn't create much pressure in the pass rush and is too turnover dependant. Illinois has looked great againts everyone except Oregon and Penn State. I trust Luke Altmyer more in this spot and I won't be shocked in the slightest if the Illini win this one outright.
Daniel Jackson smashed his receiving yardage prop Over last week in this column when he caught nine passes for 117 yards and two touchdowns against the Maryland Terrapins. The fifth-year senior is the clear WR1 on the Minnesota Golden Gophers, pacing the team in targets (73), receptions (51), and yards (568). He has nearly double the amount of targets as the next-closest wide receiver (39) and is locked and loaded for a heavy amount of volume for the remainder of the season after seeing double-digit targets in four of his last six games.
The formula for the Illinois Fighting Illini is a simple one — keep Luke Altmyer clean, and the offense will do enough to win. It’s a formula that has led to the Illini going 6-2 so far this season. The Illini have given up the most sacks in the Big 10 this year, allowing three per contest. However, the Minnesota Golden Gophers have just six sacks in five Big 10 games this season, and only 13 on the season. The Gophers are allowing opponents to complete 62% of their throws, with their secondary thriving on getting interceptions and limiting opponents to short gains. They’ve also been aided by the fact they’ve faced two teams that couldn’t pass the ball in Iowa and Michigan, and heavy winds that limited USC to just 200 yards through the air.