Ohio State Buckeyes

Picks

You can expect that Ohio State will commit to shutting down that Notre Dame running attack and for Riley Leonard to beat the Buckeyes with his arm. That will be easier said than done. Meanwhile, the Irish have the best pass defense in the country, leading the nation in EPA per dropback and defensive success rate on dropbacks. This will be key when it comes to shutting down Jeremiah Smith. Marcus Freeman knows if his team has a shot at the upset, it’s by shortening this game and limiting Ohio State possessions. To me, this all adds up to a low-scoring game, so give me the Under 45.5.

Smith is a prototype wide receiver in the NFL. He's 6-foot-3 but can burn anyone with his speed. He's also a nuanced route runner with a high football IQ and does a great job high-pointing the ball with great hands. The fact that he's totaled 1,227 yards on 71 receptions and 14 touchdowns, as a 19-year-old freshman is incredible. Simply put Smith is a game-changer. And that has rung true in the CFP. In the first two rounds. hauled in 13 Will Howard passes for 290 yards and four touchdowns in Ohio State’s first two rounds where the Buckeyes demolished Tennessee and Oregon. Smith is the best player on the field and is going to be a part of the game plan one way or the other, and getting him to score a touchdown at this price feels like a deal. He’s found the end zone 15 times this season, including four times in the playoffs. He’s scored in 11 of his 15 games played.

Leonard has three rushing touchdowns in his last four games and 16 on the season. As Notre Dame worries about its offensive line’s cohesion — right guard Rocco Spindler has a balky ankle suffered in the Orange Bowl, while Charles Jagusah is increasingly expected to start at left tackle after missing the entire season to a torn pectoral because freshman Anthonie Knapp has been ruled out with a high ankle sprain — using a running back as an additional blocker near the goal line could help keep Ohio State’s dominant defensive line at bay.

The basic math of a spread doubting Notre Dame by 8.5 points and a total of 45.5 suggests the final score should be about 27-18. That thought obviously implies the Irish do not score more than two TDs. The Irish have scored 44 rushing touchdowns this season compared to just 22 passing touchdowns. This offense lives and dies by its ground game, and that ground game should be emphasized against the Buckeyes’ defense. Once close to the goal line — perhaps that should read, “If close to the goal line …” — Notre Dame is more likely to ask Leonard to run for a touchdown, as he has done 16 times this season, than to throw for one.

In 15 games, opponents have thrown just 12 TDs against ND, five of which came in garbage time. Much of that restriction comes from keeping passes in front of the Irish secondary. In the regular season, ND gave up just 27 passes of 20+ yards, No. 6 in the country, and only 10 passes of 30+ yards, No. 11 in the country. The Irish devote resources to preventing big plays, trusting a red-zone defense to stand firm. Of opponents’ 21 red-zone scores, six were in garbage time. Of the remaining 15, 10 were rushing tallies. As Notre Dame’s defense bends but doesn’t break, opponents turn to the ground more often. That should be true even for Ohio State.

Ohio State’s WRs have as much to do with giving up less than a sack per game as the banged-up OL does. Opponents simply cannot blitz Will Howard. They need those defenders chasing receivers and camouflaging coverages. And once Ohio State finds some success, opponents are too busy grasping at air. Neither Tennessee nor Oregon logged a single sack of Howard in the Playoff. Texas managed two for a loss of 17 yards. As long as Howard avoids multiple sacks, this is a reasonable yardage prop, simply because those short running lanes will logically be open while the best pass defense in the country removes some of the usual downfield options.

Look back to the season opener at Texas A&M, when Notre Dame was uncertain of its OL’s cohesion and facing a dynamic defensive end. Two healthy TEs took 67 combined snaps with 39 of them coming attached to the OL to help block. Including Mitchell Evans’s limited work that day (ACL recovery), the three TEs caught two passes for 25 yards on four targets despite taking a total of 77 snaps. The Irish should deploy that same assist against Ohio State’s defensive end tandem of Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau. Keeping Evans near the line will slow their impact, and giving Riley Leonard time to look for his receivers is more important than getting Evans downfield frequently.

Marcus Freeman should want to shorten this game, but beyond that, these are the two best defenses in the country. Most pertinently, the Irish pass defense has yet to be beaten this season, and forcing Ohio State to the ground lowers the Buckeyes’ ceiling. Ohio State does have the best passing attack in the country in EPA, but Notre Dame just shut down the No. 4 (Penn State) and the No. 3 (Indiana). It is not like the Irish have not been tested. This strength vs. strength matchup should break Notre Dame’s way often enough to secure this Under, particularly when remembering Marcus Freeman should attempt to shorten this game and hope for luck on the margins.

If agreeing with this thought, perhaps wait and see if a +10 shows up. Hoping to see a +10 become available is worth the risk of the line falling to +8.5 instead. Marcus Freeman has faced Ohio State in each of the last two seasons. He twice shortened the game to lessen Notre Dame’s talent disadvantage. And the Irish thus twice covered the spread. That talent disadvantage is smaller now, no matter how you want to gauge it. ND’s defense should limit Ohio State’s explosive plays, further shortening this game. The Buckeyes pulled away in the 2022 meeting only because of an offensive line surge, a strength somewhat lacking this season. Expect a one-score game and some drama late.