This Team Total Under is based on expected game script and the favorite’s attitude. It is a fact we all are aware of by now: Michigan has no competent passing game. If and when Oregon takes an early lead, Michigan will need to throw the ball. It will fail. And with a comfortable lead in the second half, the Ducks have made it a habit to slow down games and simply go home with an easy win. Oregon has a quality rushing game, it can chip away at the clock once up two or three possessions, keeping the ball out of the hands of a desperate and woeful Michigan offense. This Team Total Under could be had at 14.5 rather than 13.5, but at the cost of 42 cents of juice.
Gabriel has scored in five of eight games this season. The three exceptions were all the furthest things from competitive. Oregon’s offense may not have exploded against FCS-level Idaho, but no one was ever worried. Easing past UCLA had similar vibes. And a few Friday nights ago, Purdue proved the worst of those three foes. In any moment feigning competitiveness, Gabriel has taken on some of the offensive scoring workload. Michigan may be bad this year, but a road trip to The Big House still represents a moment feigning competitiveness.
Oregon’s defense is a top-20 defense, holding up well against explosive rushes. Without those, Michigan may struggle to score much at all. There is a reason the Wolverines rank No. 126 in the country in quality possession rate at 29.8%. Depending on successful run after successful run fails when just one run falls short. Oregon’s offense has yet to scuffle this season. Against the best defenses it has faced — Ohio State, ranking No. 1 in current SP+ numbers, Illinois (No. 42) and Michigan State (No. 33) — Oregon has averaged 33.67 points. Michigan’s No. 10-rated defense should not stop the Ducks enough to cost this cover.
Total Picks ORE 497, MICH 273
adgadg222 is #10 on picking games that Oregon is in with a record of (5-3-0) and +2750 units on the season.
whooped is #2 on picking games that Oregon is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +3850 units on the season.
SuzieQ5 is #4 on picking games that Michigan is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.
adamort22 is #6 on picking games that Oregon is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +2850 units on the season.
TheChamp1 is #7 on picking games that Michigan is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.
MatroxSD is #7 on picking games that Oregon is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +2850 units on the season.
saintsnola15 is #9 on picking games that Oregon is in with a record of (4-3-0) and +2800 units on the season.