Penn State Nittany Lions

Picks

The Boise State run defense is good, but they've had issues with their pass defense this season. They allow 246.8 passing yards per game, and only 25 FBS teams surrender more per game. They've allowed several receivers this season to rack up the yards in individual games. That is why I want to target a wide receiver here instead of Tyler Warren from the tight end position. Harrison Wallace III seems to be the favorite target of quarterback Drew Allar outside of Warren. He has 43 receptions this season, which is second overall on the team and first amongst wide receivers by a large margin. After a somewhat slow start to the season, Wallace has gotten at least two catches and at least 45 receiving yards in nine consecutive games. The Broncos have allowed at least one opposing wide receiver to surpass this number in all but two games this season, and one ex exception was an FCS opponent. I like Wallace to be the wideout that does it in this contest.

Penn State boasts one of the best rushing defenses in the nation, allowing only 100.4 yards per game on the ground. They also just held SMU to only 58 rushing yards on 36 attempts in their first Playoff game. However, it should be noted that team rushing yards count sacks as negative rushing yards. The lead running back for SMU, Brashard Smith, still had 62 yards rushing on 18 carries. Meanwhile, this line for Ashton Jeanty will likely never be lower. He averaged 192.1 yards per game on the ground and only finished below this number twice all year. Once was against an FCS opponent in which he only saw 11 carries, and the other was an October game at UNLV. He still got very close with 127 and 128 yards, respectively, in those two games. This will be undoubtedly the best defense Jeanty has faced this season. However, Penn State still allowed 169 yards to Oregon’s two running backs on 35 combined carries in the Big 10 championship game.